CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 WU has 13.3" of snow already forecasted for the area, lol, their nuts, with a 70% chance to boot with 6 day lead time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1-3" Sat night, 6-8" Sun and 2-4 Sun Night, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS has 0 precip both on Tuesday and Wednesday! CF passage is completely dry, doubt it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV-3 looks like a great hit. Decent track. Would yield 6-12 across our entire region. No way this storm has precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Thats gonna be a HUGE hit Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Thats gonna be a HUGE hit Tom! Closest I can find for you guys unless someone else has better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Kuchera lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro is locked in baby, WoW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That’s a thing of beauty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Nice to see we have warmed up some.. Not all that total precip is from this event, we see a few inches on friday as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Only 132 hrs until starting time lol Between 12z-18z sat starts to approach WNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Wow, 30% chance of over 12" with 6 days to go, theres enough confidence in at least something coming for sure!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 That stuff is nutty good. Thanks Wolfie!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Probably a bunch of rainmakers on the eps too lol Or at the very least mixed precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Ehhh. I count 5-6. Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Beyond that...all of the medium range guidance continues to suggest that a significant low pressure system may affect our region next weekend...however its exact impacts will depend greatly on the degree and speed of phasing that takes place between a southern stream trough and its northern stream counterpart...which in turn will greatly influence the track of the resulting system. Slower and less pronounced phasing (along the lines of what is currently suggested by the GFS and ECMWF) would result in the main surface low passing by to our south and likely bringing a widespread accumulating (and potentially significant) snowfall to our area between later Saturday through Sunday. Meanwhile...faster and more pronounced phasing could result in the low tracking directly across our region (as suggested by the GEM) and thus greatly increasing the odds of a mixed precipitation or even rainfall event. Given the resulting forecast uncertainty...for now have continued to aim toward a model consensus and suggest another likelihood of snow for next weekend...though at this point this remains far from certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Amazing what clouds can do on a cold night. It was -2F before some low clouds moved in and soon after, the temp jumped up to 6F above within an hr or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So the 0z and 6z Goofus has the weekend system much more suppressed leaving WNY with a few inches...on the other hand the EURO (per mid-Atlantic blog) still looks great for all upstate. My money in a medium range is on the EURO, not because I want it, but it had the track if this storm that just hit MA sniffed out 2 days before GFS came around to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS is just complete garbage, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs is funny. Some reason it picks out big storms in long range Only to go wonky a bit in medium range. Been that way forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Huge SE bias as well as it has had that for yrs! I'm kind of glad its SE cause once it catches on again, it'll come back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I expect a full correction at 12Z or at least a tick or 2 NW as its always 2 steps behind the king! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just caught the weather on WIVB in buffalo...the met is Mike Cejka, decent enough but never seems to over hype, in fact I used to call him conservative Mike (amongst other things, local folks know what I'm referring to) because he would wet blanket everything...well, he just showed a weather map/graph that he believes this upcoming pattern will last about 60 days and the worst is coming by end of month and all of February. He also has the area for a very impactful storm on Saturday followed by bitter cold there after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS para was a nice run, region wide 6"-12".. Could be a lot more with one bump north lol I'll try not to get to greedy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now