CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Yeah, pretty wild Month indeed. We're close to 35" on the month and Oswego is nearing 16" I believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 This was as of this morning.. Could of lost the rest of their snow during the day or an error.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 According to that map I have a deeper snow pack then carol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I was going through webcams this morning, and Oswego had none. Buddy of mine works there and said no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: According to that map I have a deeper snow pack then carol No doubt. Your location does better with NW flow...especially with the banding this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Location location location Every year is different.. KFZY is usually the standard for the southern part of the county.. They have a total “only” around 22” after adding the last few days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Not so sure about that haha We did luck out with the banding this week but carol has a very important element I do not, elevation.. Everything here is pure lake.. She gets lake and upslope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Once again their focusing on a W-WNW flow starting Tuesday and lasting through Thursday but this time its plenty cold at all levels of the BL, with 850's down to about -12C to -15C! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Maybe in cny that's true but winds are yo turn southwesterly next Thursday night and Friday on Niagara frontier. Here's the map from the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Never mind not able to upload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not so sure about that haha We did luck out with the banding this week but carol has a very important element I do not, elevation.. Everything here is pure lake.. She gets lake and upslope lol Snow pack does seem to have more endurance up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Here was the 18z gfs.. Winds turn SW ahead of the clipper, but will flip w-wnw as it passes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I'm expecting whatever snow I currently have otg, will be gone by the end of Sunday, but then we begin to replenish next week, real quick! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Sunshine! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Beautiful picture and view! Thanks! Love the scenery where I live. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 A mid level shortwave and associated surface trough will approach Wednesday and cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday evening. Boundary layer flow will become more westerly and better aligned ahead of this trough, with moisture and instability also improving. This may allow for more organized lake snows east of the lakes. A ridge may force the lake snow to weaken by Thursday. Another, potentially stronger clipper shortwave will move through the Great Lakes Thursday night. This may produce a few snow showers areawide. Lake effect snow would likely become better organized again northeast of the lakes along the clipper cold front, then settle into areas east of the lakes again by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Looks like we are in the doldrums for a week or two. Boring. Nice looking house TughillMatt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 42 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looks like we are in the doldrums for a week or two. Boring. Nice looking house TughillMatt! Thanks, Dave. I don't own the home, but it is where I work and serve. I live just down the driveway. This is the view from my back porch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Kbuf In regards to precipitation...the main concern will be two rounds of lake snow that could lead to significant accumulations... particularly in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. This could result in winter weather headlines (advisories/warnings)...so stay tuned. Breaking this down on a day to day basis... As we open this period Wednesday night...weak mid level ridging and the nose of its associated sfc high will push across the region Wednesday night. This should encourage fair dry weather over much of the forecast area...however a deep westerly flow of moderately cold air will support lake snows east of both lakes. While the flow will start to back during the overnight hours...multiple bands of lake snow will likely generate some accumulation over the majority of the Southern Tier with a cap around 8k ft likely allowing moderate to heavy snow within a single plume of producing problematic snow near the Tug Hill. On Thursday...a robust shortwave will dig across the Upper Mid West and push a cold front to southern Ontario. This will help to establish a short lived warm advective pattern within a backing steering flow over our region. The on going lake snows will push north towards Buffalo and Watertown while weakening as the cap should drop to around 5k ft. Nevertheless...some accumulations can probably be expected...especially over Jefferson county and northern parts of Lewis county. The remainder of the region may see a stray snow shower or flurry...but nothing more. The aforementioned strong shortwave and sfc cold front will plow across our forecast area Thursday night...likely before midnight. This will result in some snow showers across the region that could be briefly accompanied by some gusty winds and greatly reduced visibilities. During the second half of the night...lake snows will become re-established east of both lakes. Once again...a single plume could target the Tug Hill region with the likelihood that the band will be enhanced by an upstream connection to Lake Huron. Multiple bands will be found east of Lake Erie. As the base of the overlying mid level trough moves across the region on Friday...a large sfc high will make its way across the Upper Mid West. This will encourage the steering flow to veer more to the west Northwest...likely pushing the lake snows a little further south from the previous night. The surface high will slowly ease across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday...gradually lowering the cap in the process which will bring an end to the lake snows southeast of both lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I can't even read their AFD's anymore, lol, what a joke! I'll resort to KBGM for our forecast here in So. Oswego County, because they could care less for areas to the SE of the Lake, and I don't blame them cause its not in their area of concern! Their wrong 2/3rds of the time anyway, lol, especially their maps! Just the nature of LE I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Whatever's falling in Onondaga cty is not rain, probably sleet but it may not even be hitting the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Well looks like the holidays will be near avg or slightly above so not bad as normals by then are close to freezing anyway, so all in all, get past the next 10 days of BN then 10-15 of AN then Old Man Winter takes over till April, so whoever doesn't like Winter, enjoy the next 20 days or so, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Well, BUF's forecast discussion sure was depressing this morning... Our significant west flow lake effect event has now become "not significant", cold pattern break down, above normal temperatures....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Well, BUF's forecast discussion sure was depressing this morning... Our significant west flow lake effect event has now become "not significant", cold pattern break down, above normal temperatures....... Yeah wake me up in a few weeks. KBUF should have never mentioned that significant LES event, it wasn't even in the models. Did they get any new employees recently, have been pretty terrible this year. Look at these indices. Literally all going the wrong direction in a strong way. This would usually result in well above average temps, but I think we average just slightly above for Dec. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 This is what happens when you have a bad pacific. Canada gets flooded with warm air. I haven't done much research lately but I've heard the Nino event has become basin wide which wasn't predicted before. We want a west based Modoki for good winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Wake me up around Christmas- I hope.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Did you guys see the tornadic outbreak in Illinois yesterday? Snow on the ground and EF2/3 tornados spawning all over the place. Incredible stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 30 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Did you guys see the tornadic outbreak in Illinois yesterday? Snow on the ground and EF2/3 tornados spawning all over the place. Incredible stuff. And the guy holding up the Mallards in the foreground with tornado in background. It’s a good time to be alive! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Lucky for November or we would be well below avg the way the next 2 weeks look lol Especially given December is a big month east of the Lake.. The Next event is being shown most WSW-SW, not many win in here on that flow..(off ontario) Best shot of significant snow was pre clipper/front, once that front passes the band will fly south and break up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 BUF's forecasts do seem off. I didn't want to say anything, because I am new to their region. Wolfie, 10:1 ratio, that would be about 6 inches for me. Is it normally pretty difficult to get west winds here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 A direct west 270 flow is actually one of the hardest ones to get lol But has the strongest winds/longest fetch..And tends to be maintained longer.. Granted depending on the width of the band depends who gets what..I think 260-280 can work for the most part, at least here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now