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meatwad

Pittsburgh PA "Spring" and Summer 2018

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This might be hunch, but i think the WV tells a little bit better story of where Flo ends up making landfall. Guidance wants to drive her further down the coast towards the NC/SC boarder. IMO the disturbance sitting over florida pushes her a little further north, north of Emerald Isle, NC. 

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 4.04.53 PM.png

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On 9/10/2018 at 4:09 PM, MikeB_01 said:

This might be hunch, but i think the WV tells a little bit better story of where Flo ends up making landfall. Guidance wants to drive her further down the coast towards the NC/SC boarder. IMO the disturbance sitting over florida pushes her a little further north, north of Emerald Isle, NC. 

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 4.04.53 PM.png

That stall and SW slide down the coast is just crazy... Storm surge coupled with all the rain and wind for 42+ hours is just really unprecedented. Starting to wonder what's going to be left standing... Our family vacations in Topsail frequently.. thinking it may be awhile before we get back after this one. :cry:

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1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

Another 2" of rain from remnants of Flo when she gets here, if she gets here. 

Screen Shot 2018-09-12 at 10.47.23 AM.png

Luckily wind won't be much of a factor I don't think. Hopefully most of the runoff has worked it's way out of here by Monday night next week so flooding would be minimal from another 2in, but the ground will be pretty saturated so could see another round of mud slides, also, if it tracks a little closer we end up closer to 3-4 inches which would be troublesome for sure.

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150108
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
908 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper ridge will continue to suppress widespread rain
through the weekend. Rainfall from the remnant of Florence is
expected to spread over the region Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes were needed for the late eve update.

Otherwise, subsidence via a broad upper ridge to the north of
tropical storm Florence will continue to suppress all but isolated
showers. A better chance can be expected over the ridges as easterly
upslope gradually improves. Temperature will remain warm and humidity
level high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will begin to break down this weekend, with Florence
finally moving toward the Upper Ohio by Sunday night. Trying to stay
close to the NHC track for the timing and location of the storm,
which would bring the bulk of the rainfall into the region
Monday. Higher amounts of rainfall are expected to the south and
east, with up to 4 inches possible in the higher elevations.
Significant uncertainty remains as far as track and timing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Florence is currently projected to exit eastward on Tuesday. An
approaching cold front is timed to return rain chance to the
area by Friday. Above average temperatures are expected during
the first half of the week before more seasonal levels return
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR, to high-end MVFR will prevail through Saturday. The
exeception will continue to be DUJ where moist easterly flow
again will suppport IFR stratus later tonight and early
Saturday.

Outlook...
Widespread restrictions are likely by Monday with the crossing
of the Florence remnant.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.

 

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On 9/23/2018 at 9:37 AM, CoraopolisWx said:

Just a heads up that when the site goes down, especially during an event, the old stomping grounds site is still open.

Just go to personal discussions, and you'll see the Pittsburgh tread.

Cool.  Where is that....link?

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2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

Cool.  Where is that....link?

 

1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Accuweather Forum

Wasn't sure if it was even ok to mention another forum.

Just got word that the accuweather forum is closing at the end of the year.  

This is were most of those folks are migrating to: https://wxdisco.com/forums/

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3 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

Not sure I like being lumped together with everyone from a whole region.

Yeah I hear ya.

I just found out about this today, so haven't been able to look too closely at the site.

Hopefully we'll be all good, but just in case we crash here, we have a rendezvous point to gather.

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yzqe3mR.gif

 

   SEL2

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 392
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   255 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southeast New York
     Eastern Ohio
     Pennsylvania
     Extreme northern West Virginia

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
     1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A moist and modestly unstable environment along with
   increasingly strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support the
   possibility of supercells capable of a tornado risk along with
   hail/wind.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Youngstown OH
   to 30 miles east southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 27030.

   ...Guyer

 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
256 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAC003-007-125-WVC029-021930-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-181002T1930Z/
Washington PA-Beaver PA-Allegheny PA-Hancock WV-
256 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN BEAVER...NORTHWESTERN
ALLEGHENY AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 256 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Weirton, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some
         power outages.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburgh...                     Mount Lebanon...
Moon Township...                  Weirton...
Franklin Park...                  Upper St. Clair...
Scott Township...                 Robinson Township...
Carnegie...                       Kennedy Township...
Stowe Township...                 McKees Rocks...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 55 and 70.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 49 and 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area.

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for western and
southwestern Pennsylvania...and northern West Virginia.

LAT...LON 4036 8005 4039 8052 4040 8052 4040 8059
      4047 8059 4058 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 260DEG 23KT 4045 8048

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

 

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6 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

The cell to the west of the airport showing some decent rotation.

However, in the last few frames, it has really lost its wind speed. and the velocities showing up on radar don't support even a severe thunderstorm warning

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20 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

However, in the last few frames, it has really lost its wind speed. and the velocities showing up on radar don't support even a severe thunderstorm warning

It fell apart, which is fine with me because it was heading right towards my home, and I don’t really enjoy microbutsts or tornadoes.

 

also, the storms near Erie are impressive. Wording in their warning literally say there is a “large and extremely dangerous tornado” which is wording we never see around here. 

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAC039-021945-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/
Crawford PA-
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 328 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Harmonsburg, or 8 miles northwest of Meadville, moving east at
35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to
         homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and
         vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations...
Conneautville and Conneaut Lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 8046 4178 8049 4180 8027 4163 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 276DEG 32KT 4171 8029

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

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Just now, yoda said:
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

PAC039-021945-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/
Crawford PA-
328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 328 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near Harmonsburg, or 8 miles northwest of Meadville, moving east at
35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to
         homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and
         vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations...
Conneautville and Conneaut Lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4169 8046 4178 8049 4180 8027 4163 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 276DEG 32KT 4171 8029

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

Thanks for posting, like I said, we never see that here...in October Tia is even more rare. 

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Tornado Watch

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 392/393
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
329 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

OHC029-081-PAC003-005-007-019-031-053-063-065-073-085-121-125-129-
WVC009-029-030300-
/O.CON.KPBZ.TO.A.0392.000000T0000Z-181003T0300Z/

TORNADO WATCH 392 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO

COLUMBIANA            JEFFERSON

IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA

FOREST                MERCER                VENANGO

IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA

ALLEGHENY             WASHINGTON            WESTMORELAND

IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

ARMSTRONG             BUTLER                CLARION
INDIANA               JEFFERSON

IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

BEAVER                LAWRENCE

IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA

BROOKE                HANCOCK

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALIQUIPPA, AMBRIDGE, BEAVER FALLS,
BROOKVILLE, BUTLER, CANONSBURG, CLARION, COLUMBIANA,
EAST LIVERPOOL, ELLWOOD CITY, FOLLANSBEE, FORD CITY, FRANKLIN,
GREENSBURG, GROVE CITY, HERMITAGE, INDIANA, KITTANNING, LATROBE,
MONACA, MURRYSVILLE, NEW CASTLE, NEW KENSINGTON, OIL CITY,
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA, PUNXSUTAWNEY, SALEM, SHARON, STEUBENVILLE,
TIONESTA, WASHINGTON, WEIRTON, AND WELLSBURG.

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Tornado Warning
PAC039-022015-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0009.181002T1939Z-181002T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
339 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 338 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
  near Meadville, moving east at 35 mph.

  Another rotating storm capable of producing a tornado is 5 miles
west of Conneautville, moving east at 35 mph toward Conneautville.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to
           homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and
           vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations...
  Venango, Conneautville, Woodcock, Saegertown, Blooming Valley and
  Springboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8050 4180 8047 4178 8002 4156 8000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 276DEG 32KT 4170 8018

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

LaPlante

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Tornado WarningPAC039-022015-/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0009.181002T1939Z-181002T2015Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTornado WarningNational Weather Service Cleveland OH339 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a* Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania...* Until 415 PM EDT.* At 338 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. Another rotating storm capable of producing a tornado is 5 mileswest of Conneautville, moving east at 35 mph toward Conneautville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris          may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile          homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to          homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and          vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Venango, Conneautville, Woodcock, Saegertown, Blooming Valley and Springboro.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadlytornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move toa basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdybuilding. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or ina vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protectyourself from flying debris.&&LAT...LON 4171 8050 4180 8047 4178 8002 4156 8000TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 276DEG 32KT 4170 8018TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDTORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLEHAIL...1.00IN$$LaPlante


I wish we had decent radar coverage over there. Would love to see the correlation coefficient.


.

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