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On 9/14/2018 at 7:24 PM, raindancewx said:

The subsurface warmth may finally be coming up in earnest now -

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Nino 1.2 is rising quickly on Tropical Tidbits -

nino12.png

The last bit of cool in Nino 3/Nino 1.2 is moving into Nino 3.4, but it seems like it will be attacked from below the surface, the north, east and west. The areas south of the Nino zones are still cool-ish. I don't think that is going anywhere. For people thinking Modoki = Cold East, the anti-warm blob look is showing up in the NE Pacific now. The cold ring v. warm ring off NW Canada is kind of Neutralish for the PDO. The warm tongue inside the ring...is more akin to a cold PDO. Atlantic cold ring remains intact too. The warm PDO should have a warm ring along NW North America, with a cold tongue. The waters off the West look a bit like 2006 if anything, rather than 2002 or 2014.

qYRJovp.png

 

There are no absolutes in seasonal forecasting, but modoki winters are harsher in the east on average....unequivocally.

But I agree that it is prudent to search for avenues for deviation from the expected.

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                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4

The weeklies are ahead of 1991/1994 now, behind 2014 still.

 11SEP1991     20.7 0.3     24.7-0.1     26.9 0.1     29.0 0.4
 14SEP1994     20.0-0.3     24.6-0.2     26.9 0.1     29.2 0.5
 10SEP2014     21.1 0.7     25.3 0.4     27.3 0.5     29.4 0.7

The European showed a warm rebound in September after a brief cool-off in August. That looks correct. The subsurface is still warm. I still like an El Nino. Start looks like October.  Might be one final dip in Nino 3.4, but the drop off Tropical Tidbits showed in Nino 3.4 may or may not show up in the weeklies.

Last year, for comparison -

13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0

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SOI is down to -8.5 or so for September. Here are the weeklies -

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05SEP2018     20.1-0.4     25.0 0.1     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.5
 12SEP2018     20.5 0.2     25.2 0.4     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4
 19SEP2018     20.3-0.1     25.0 0.2     27.0 0.3     29.1 0.4

 Recent El Ninos / near Ninos for reference. This is also when the El Ninos that tried to form in Fall 2003/2012 peaked and fell apart - so keep an eye on that. 

 24SEP2014     21.2 0.8     25.4 0.5     27.1 0.4     29.3 0.6
 27SEP2006     21.7 1.1     25.7 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 22SEP2004     20.4-0.1     25.3 0.4     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24SEP2003     20.5 0.0     25.0 0.2     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.5
 21SEP1994     20.5 0.1     24.9 0.0     27.0 0.2     29.2 0.5
 18SEP1991     20.7 0.3     25.1 0.2     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7

1994 really started to warm rapidly from this point on in the Fall. We'll have to see if that happens. Some of the models show that. A blend of 2003 and 1994 is pretty good for this week.

Subsurface remains pretty warm. As far as September looks nationally for heat, a blend of 1953, 2002, 2014, 2015 is somewhat similar.

 

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I want to point something out. In actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, each month for Jan-Aug, 2018 is closest to 2006 and 2012. In 2012, we had similar warmth in Nino 3.4 to now, but the subsurface began to rapidly decay, ahead of the fall to a cold Neutral winter. I really don't see that happening, at least as of late September, in the subsurface -

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

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11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I want to point something out. In actual SSTs for Nino 3.4, each month for Jan-Aug, 2018 is closest to 2006 and 2012. In 2012, we had similar warmth in Nino 3.4 to now, but the subsurface began to rapidly decay, ahead of the fall to a cold Neutral winter. I really don't see that happening, at least as of late September, in the subsurface -

 

 

 

Yeah from a subsurface standpoint this is looking nothing like 2012. Subsurface warmth is increasing still. Looks more like 2006 to me.

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