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stormtracker

March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD

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Just now, SlamSlam said:

Why not now. What more do they need to see?

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Relax. There are protocols to their decision making process and it takes time to decide on their forecast and messaging. It’s a hugely important job and they are pros who want get it right.

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Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Fwiw, I couldnt find a classic Northeast snowstorm/Kocin storm like this one in March/April

March 1958 and 3/21/1998.  3/21/1998 was a close synaptic setup, but it may not have given us much snow.

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5 minutes ago, SlamSlam said:

Why is LWX not issuing warnings? They want to see 06Z GFS?

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Dude, calm down.  It's one model showing something of this magnitude.  Why would you all of a sudden switch something because of it.  You wait for confirmation with other data.  If they go to Warning now, its not going to be just because of the Euro.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

SO I was sleep...was jolted to sleep for some reason and decided to check the board for the Euro info.   Now I wish I hadn't.  I can't go back to sleep.   What has gotten into this model??

A giant HECS climbed into this model.  Euro never really misses the big ones (especially at this range). May be a bit overdone, but likely has the right idea at this point.  In other news, where the heck is Ji?

 

MDstorm 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Dude, calm down.  It's one model showing something of this magnitude.  Why would you all of a sudden switch something because of it.  You wait for confirmation with other data.  If they go to Warning now, its not going to be just because of the Euro.

Awake at 2:40am AND having to scold someone lol...

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4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Wait for the EPS to see if it matches the Euro Op.

Eps isn’t going to be real useful this close in. 

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Dude, calm down.  It's one model showing something of this magnitude.  Why would you all of a sudden switch something because of it.  You wait for confirmation with other data.  If they go to Warning now, its not going to be just because of the Euro.
Seems likely to me that WSW criteria will be reached and has now been forecast well in advance. It is just a warning and does not mean it happens. Why can't it be issued now? Many people, like me, leave for the DC area at 3 - 4AM. If a WSW was in place I would not need to travel 125+ miles today.

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3 minutes ago, SlamSlam said:

Seems likely to me that WSW criteria will be reached and has now been forecast well in advance. It is just a warning and does not mean it happens. Why can't it be issued now? Many people, like me, leave for the DC area at 3 - 4AM. If a WSW was in place I would not need to travel 125+ miles today.

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They issue everything at once usually between 3-4am. Also takes a while to make the maps and get all the info updated. Not like they wave a magic wand and there it is. 

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They issue everything at once usually between 3-4am. Also takes a while to make the maps and get all the info updated. Not like they wave a magic wand and there it is. 
Roger that. My employer goes by the WSW. If there is one, no work. If not, i need to be there at 5am.

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wow that sucks.  better get ready :)!
Just left. No WSW. Will be there 5 - 5.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup 6z NAM colder and sleet early as 11 am into the cities

It’s super heavy sleet too. Could be TSIP. 

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vs 0z, goes to snow a littler earlier too with wave 1
Nam will catch on by 18z

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Any obs from the initial slug of moisture rolling into DC? If we are already seeing sleet pellets mixing in it might be an indication we see an earlier icier solution for the cities.

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06z NAM is a different kind of look. Tucked in low close to the coast idea has backed away, tight gradient north of the M/D line, but our area gets absolutely raked with heavy snow. Bullseye right across from 95 to I-81. Easily double digit snows on the 12km. 500 is closed off, deepening, and crossing a textbook location for us. 

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