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March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat


The Iceman

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oh and this:

PS....hazwoper there r your rates. My BK finally finished the renovation....going for a Sunday whopper with you in mind :-Da2546e5d9f0b7e75c895d30353b31751.jpg

Well, still better to have the ICON on our side than not. 

Does the GFS still have that suppression bias for east coast storms? Because it looks the most south.

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Concensus is growing for a weaker wave 1 that continues to get sheared out underneath us narrowly grazing the mason-dixon line with lighter snows N of there and a relatively sharp dropoff. Trends continue showing the dampening out of that lead s/w once entering the Southern OV. So looks like no North trend with that piece and a weakening s/w.......which is not a bad thing at all irt the second wave on Wednesday. This type of scenario gets the lead energy out of the way allowing for better spacing and keeping the baroclinic zone farther N and closer to the coast. This can be seen on recent GFS, ICON, Euro, CMC, EPS, and GEPS runs with clear trends in placing the 2nd wave of lp stronger, farther N, and nearer the coast. We arent quite there yet verbatim for SE PA (tho there have been a few fantasy snow bomb runs) but a good portion of NJ has consistently started showing as measurable snowfall with decent rates for March. If the trends continue with wave 2, then this could turn into something substantial for many of us in a hurry. We really need to see how wave 1 plays out but wave 2 has and still does show good potential. These are BIG changes from 12-24 hours ago where many (including myself and Iceman) were keying on wave 1 and a N trend. We have moved away from that focus imo and with guidance going the other way, we now should hope they are right squashing and shearing/dampening out that front running energy in hopes of a better setup for wave 2 on Wednesday.

 

 

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Just want to note that the post above is highlighting the potential upside to this and by no means is a trend that is set in stone and will continue. I am intrigued by the changes tho obviously. There are still ways we fail all together one of which is a repeat of the last storm ie the old suppression hooker which skirts us going South then refires just a hair too far S and E on its way up to bombing out for New England. Would be a crud way to wrap up the season (tho some hints we track another close call March 24-26) but many of us shouldnt complain given the AN seasonal snowfall for a chunk of SE PA.

 

Again, we need to see how wave 1 plays out first.

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just want to note that the post above is highlighting the potential upside to this and by no means is a trend that is set in stone and will continue. I am intrigued by the changes tho obviously. There are still ways we fail all together one of which is a repeat of the last storm ie the old suppression hooker which skirts us going South then refires just a hair too far S and E on its way up to bombing out for New England. Would be a crud way to wrap up the season (tho some hints we track another close call March 24-26) but many of us shouldnt complain given the AN seasonal snowfall for a chunk of SE PA.

 

Again, we need to see how wave 1 plays out first.

 

 

 

Just can't help yourself.

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After wave 1 gets out of here I want to see the confluence to our northeast start easing up to allow for more height rise along the coast. At this point the movement of the heights at H5 north or south is the main thing I have been looking at regarding the 2nd wave's impact on our area. I'm  feeling pretty positive right now since there is still plenty of time.

 

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2 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Couldn't agree more. If you've been reading their forum/focusing on the east coast in general they've been getting screwed left and right anyway possible. Go snow nuts DC and Balt!!!

Funny about reading their forum. LOL. I spend most of my time there. Lots of good analysis and great humor.

The Ukie reminds me of the winter storm in 2009-2010? Where I was smoking cirrus while south of me got smoked.

 

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Euro has a big time LOL run, DC fringed south central SEPA fringed north. It's like 2010 but with a big fu the the lower midatlantic with gradient north and south. 

KAMU hits it big!
 

 

Ends up getting pretty good precip to most of SE PA - must be because of wave 2? Precip pretty paltry to start.

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Euro extreme SE PA 1'+. Nice run. 2nd wave not even fully developed but trending....plenty of room to amplify. Regarding wave 1 where other guidance has Southern PA fringed.....2 things to note about WAA snows.....1) they almost always start sooner than progged and 2) they come farther N than progged 95% of the time. These are NOT weenie handbook facts btw, the basic synoptic patterns from past history. Keeping it real :-)

 

GEPS are REALLY strong signal now for deep intense coastal low with wave 2 very near the BM area for SE PA and NJ. Wow. great runs so far today.

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