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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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New NAM has me a bit more optimistic about decent accums this way. It has mostly just been the Euro to this point showing anything decent. If Euro still holds ground I see BGM converting all watches to warnings with exception of possibly Otsego Co. Even if accums fall slightly short of the letter of law for warning level snowfall in spots within the current watch alignment, this looks to be a fairly high impact event due to combination of antecedent rainfall washing off the roads and setting the stage for a flash freeze all the same time while receiving a moderate dose of IP/ZR topped with at least several inches of snow. The roads on Saturday AM will undoubtedly be an absolute mess.

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2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

I think we may see some thundersnow

Tim, Did you notice how Kevin Williams was kinda downplaying the snow? (I assume you watched his feed.) Unlike him. Part of it is continuity of his earlier forecast. I see a shot at two feet; making it one of bigger ones in recent history. 

Who knows, he’s usually the best....

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

So far for kfzy nam 11”, 3k nam 14”-16” And rgem 16”-18..So 12”-18” “may be” a good call by the nws..

I see less than a foot falling for us, but that's just me. this event lasts a total of 6 - 8hrs, so basically we have to bank on it snowing 2"/hr for the storm as a whole and that's NOT happening, here anyway. I will say 5-8" for me, which is still warning criteria, but I just don't see these crazy totals some of the guidance is spitting out. Syracuse South a bit more cause of the hills and just cause.

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I think closer to the  lake could get some extra enhancement, only time will tell..Euro was nearly identical the last 2 runs, I’ll probably stick with it ..

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28 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I see less than a foot falling for us, but that's just me. this event lasts a total of 6 - 8hrs, so basically we have to bank on it snowing 2"/hr for the storm as a whole and that's NOT happening, here anyway. I will say 5-8" for me, which is still warning criteria, but I just don't see these crazy totals some of the guidance is spitting out. Syracuse South a bit more cause of the hills and just cause.

Balls. 8-14" for us. Book it. Not sure what KBGM is waiting for to upgrade to Warnings here. 7" seems like a lock at least for their N&W counties.  Maybe waiting for the 00Z Tropic Thunder model to weigh in? I think it still shows a Blizzard for KBOS.

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14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEM went a tad NW

gem_asnow_neus_12.png

Pretty solid group of runs. Not much left to change. GFS internals look fine to me- the snowfall just looks a bit anemic (I can’t see changes from 12-18z ).

Now we wait for what will probably be the last useable Euro

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15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

We'll suffice to say their all pretty much in the slot!

It could be worse.   You could be in the NE thread mongering up a winter wonderland of ZR/IP to SN from the Ugandan model whilst only hours away from 55 and R+ conditions.

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