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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AMO is record highest

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The raw Atlantic SSTs imply 1952 was probably the equivalent of this year in the Atlantic, once you factor in that its a bit warmer globally. Dec 1952 was 20.418C in the Atlantic, Dec 2017 was 20.620C. The 1952 number is the warmest December figure in the previous warm AMO era, and consistent with the AMO being a three / six solar-cycle (33/66 year) cycle, i.e. 1895-1927 = cold, 1928-1962 = warm, 1963-1994 = cold, 1995-?? is warm. Should note, Dec 1944 was 20.348C too - pretty impressive. Dec 2016 was 20.588C, Dec 2017 2017 was 20.620C. The long-term rate of warming in December (1856-2017) implies 2017 is 1952+65 years warming.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data

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Correlations between Dec & MAM strongly imply Nino 3.4 will warm in MAM, but its less certain in Nino 1.2. Some kind of East-based cold-neutral look is my guess for Spring. My assumption is Nino 1.2 misses low v. the correlation given subsurface there for MAM, and Nino 3.4 v. the correlation given the subsurface there. This is what I got from weighting 13 scenarios based on existing conditions and the subsurface for Spring -

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