Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Sign in to follow this  

AMO is record highest

Recommended Posts

The raw Atlantic SSTs imply 1952 was probably the equivalent of this year in the Atlantic, once you factor in that its a bit warmer globally. Dec 1952 was 20.418C in the Atlantic, Dec 2017 was 20.620C. The 1952 number is the warmest December figure in the previous warm AMO era, and consistent with the AMO being a three / six solar-cycle (33/66 year) cycle, i.e. 1895-1927 = cold, 1928-1962 = warm, 1963-1994 = cold, 1995-?? is warm. Should note, Dec 1944 was 20.348C too - pretty impressive. Dec 2016 was 20.588C, Dec 2017 2017 was 20.620C. The long-term rate of warming in December (1856-2017) implies 2017 is 1952+65 years warming.


  • Like 2

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Correlations between Dec & MAM strongly imply Nino 3.4 will warm in MAM, but its less certain in Nino 1.2. Some kind of East-based cold-neutral look is my guess for Spring. My assumption is Nino 1.2 misses low v. the correlation given subsurface there for MAM, and Nino 3.4 v. the correlation given the subsurface there. This is what I got from weighting 13 scenarios based on existing conditions and the subsurface for Spring -





Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.