40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Any questions, hit me up. Enjoy. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-2018-year-of.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Ray, curious as to why you seemed bullish in your outlook, but have BOS and ORH not too far AN for snow. Thinking unlucky, or just the potential for a warmer Dec into Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray, curious as to why you seemed bullish in your outlook, but have BOS and ORH not too far AN for snow. Thinking unlucky, or just the potential for a warmer Dec into Jan? It maybe bad luck, but the numbers just weren't there in my analog set....I am suspect of the data for especially Worcester, though...I think it sells them short. 1995-'96, of all seasons, was a train wreck...thankfully I remember that they had 132.5" Some it was hyperbole just to get the point across regarding putting the extra work in on these....the days of lumping everything together by ENSO state need to go by the wayside. Keep in mind, too.....my outlook was pretty cold...but I think having things go to crap mid season will hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 You guys really need to keep these outlooks under a couple thousand words, mine is 2,800 words and it feels wordy at that length - you have 20,000(!). The impacts of the patterns that you think matter, ENSO, QBO, PDO, AMO, PNA, Modoki status, NAO/AO - they don't change year to year. You can just sum them up in a little visual and save a lot of space rather than explaining them in 10,000 words for each forecast. For me, I just include this at the beginning of each seasonal forecast, and then I indicate which phase I'm expecting for each. The chart is for Albuquerque. I do think the cold north / warm south look you have displayed is part of the pattern, but I think it has three alternating positions - West (NV), North (Montana), East (Michigan), so on net, the East ends up a bit warmer than average, save for possibly New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 I like to write....always the option to scroll to the end. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Incredible job as always Ray, just wish you would add temperature forecast verification as well in the next one you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Incredible job as always Ray, just wish you would add temperature forecast verification as well in the next one you do. Very good suggestion....I have slacked in the temp verification. I really focuses on snowfall, and oscillations. Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I like to write....always the option to scroll to the end. Thanks. Great job, Ray, I don't like to count words ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 I get that its a bit much for some....but I like to write as though the reader has never heard the term "weather" before....and I think the educational aspect is compromised when you simply make a little chart with indexes on it. I learn from doing this, too....not just the readers, as I don't mean to be condescending. Its akin to learning math...someone can explain the process all day, but you just have to get into the trenches and apply it. My meteorological knowledge base has expanded a great deal since, and because I started doing these 3 years ago. But I do add the composite maps, snowfall/index tables and abbreviated narrative near the end for those who do not have the time, patience or desire to read it all because it is time consuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 40/70 - enjoyed your write-up. Thought you did a good job with the way you 'pruned' your analog years and with describing how you felt the winter would materialize, month by month. Good luck, and thanks for doing the research and posting it. Hopefully we can all learn and improve with the outlooks going forward. Regarding ENSO strength (SST), I like the way Jan Null defines it. He requires 3 consecutive ONI trimesters in order to define the event for a given strength. So, in order for the La Nina to be classified as moderate, at least 3 consecutive trimesters would have to be in the range of -1.0 to -1.4 - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Really nice write up Ray. Great work. Plenty of convergence with our ideas. 1954-55 actually would have been my fifth analog if I included another; saw many commonalities with that season. Couple questions - do you have an expectation as far as temperature departures for DJF for the country or Northeast? Judging by your index forecast and analogs, progression, it would seem that you're probably no warmer than near normal as far as temperature anomalies in the Northeast? As far as snowfall, our numbers are similar generally throughout. You're actually snowier than me in the Mid-atlantic and I'm snowier in NYC, slightly. Should be interesting to see how this year evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Wow, quite the discussion! Thanks for sharing your thoughts/forecast. It is evident you put lots of time and effort towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Isotherm said: Really nice write up Ray. Great work. Plenty of convergence with our ideas. 1954-55 actually would have been my fifth analog if I included another; saw many commonalities with that season. Couple questions - do you have an expectation as far as temperature departures for DJF for the country or Northeast? Judging by your index forecast and analogs, progression, it would seem that you're probably no warmer than near normal as far as temperature anomalies in the Northeast? As far as snowfall, our numbers are similar generally throughout. You're actually snowier than me in the Mid-atlantic and I'm snowier in NYC, slightly. Should be interesting to see how this year evolves. I included temps in one of the composite maps near the end....Not too far from normal. Normal to minus 2 40N, normal plus to 2 points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 As usual....great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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