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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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5 hours ago, tim123 said:

Euro nails south shore of ontario in long range

ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_234.png

Am I missing something.  NAM shows it as well that we get into heavy snow midday Sunday... Not seeing much chatter yet...

 

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Am I missing something.  NAM shows it as well that we get into heavy snow midday Sunday... Not seeing much chatter yet...

 

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Cold air is real marginal, with temps in the mid to upper 30's, is just not gonna do it. Maybe night time may be a different story but as far as any snow accumulating, just doubt is all.

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53 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Cold air is real marginal, with temps in the mid to upper 30's, is just not gonna do it. Maybe night time may be a different story but as far as any snow accumulating, just doubt is all.

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Have to agree with this 100%. At least at lower elevations in WNY we probably won’t be able to accumulate until sunset which by that time the snow will be winding down and transitioning to lake effect well S and NE of the metro. If the lower elevations around Buffalo are lucky, we’ll see an inch on the grass by Monday morning... in ski country though I definitely could see a solid 6” or so on the highest hilltops of 2000’. At least we should have some flakes during the air on Sunday but that NAM model output is definitely smoking something...

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Have to agree with this 100%. At least at lower elevations in WNY we probably won’t be able to accumulate until sunset which by that time the snow will be winding down and transitioning to lake effect well S and NE of the metro. If the lower elevations around Buffalo are lucky, we’ll see an inch on the grass by Monday morning... in ski country though I definitely could see a solid 6” or so on the highest hilltops of 2000’. At least we should have some flakes during the air on Sunday but that NAM model output is definitely smoking something...

Yeah, especially with precip output, the Nam is notorious for completely overdoing it but the closer it gets to the event, it should start to see it a bit better, one would expect.

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Sounds quite interesting. KBUF, suggesting a definite allowable snowfall to the E-SE of the LO. Then next week sound quite wintry as Well!
A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime. Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake induced CAPES over 500 J/KG and inversion heights very respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but not significant snowfall from the southern Tug Hill over to east of Rochester off Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua ridge and Boston Hills off Lake Erie. Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in across the lower Great Lakes, which will effectively limit synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening snow bands northward toward Buffalo and into the Tug Hill before ending by Monday evening.

Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the region...with the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as deeper colder air (-10C/850 hPa) builds over the eastern Great Lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday. Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from Canada Friday...maintain chances for snow, especially across Lake Ontario and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal boundary.


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Sounds like and looks like, from a guidance standpoint, that were headed into a stormy Late November into early -mid December. Let's just hope that whatever falls at least lasts until XMAS.
I'd rather it get stormy for a week or 2 then have the pattern reload, then we return to a more stormy pattern the last week of December throughout January, lol, yeah right, imagine that, lol!

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Official NWS Forecast Snow Totals

Me likey likey, and this will come quick in a 4-6 hr period.  Brief warm-up tuesday then another strong CF passes through on Wednesday to switch whatever is falling over to +SN!.  I can see a quick 2-4" in Fulton for the 1st event Sun-Mon.  Enjoy, whoever gets their first snowfall this Sunday!

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9 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Sounds quite interesting. KBUF, suggesting a definite allowable snowfall to the E-SE of the LO. Then next week sound quite wintry as Well!
A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime. Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake induced CAPES over 500 J/KG and inversion heights very respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but not significant snowfall from the southern Tug Hill over to east of Rochester off Lake Ontario and the Chautauqua ridge and Boston Hills off Lake Erie. Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in across the lower Great Lakes, which will effectively limit synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening snow bands northward toward Buffalo and into the Tug Hill before ending by Monday evening.

Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the region...with the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as deeper colder air (-10C/850 hPa) builds over the eastern Great Lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday. Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from Canada Friday...maintain chances for snow, especially across Lake Ontario and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal boundary.


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Nice write up.  It is relatively active pattern that we look to be in for the next few weeks.  The cold hits are fast and transient but certainly a better start than some years (specifically 2015/2016).   Kind of intrigued by that large cut off low with deep tropical moisture over the southeast out near 6 days.  A little better phasing and that would be a sizeable system.  Lots to watch means happy weather nerds, excited to be back.  

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Nice write up.  It is relatively active pattern that we look to be in for the next few weeks.  The cold hits are fast and transient but certainly a better start than some years (specifically 2015/2016).   Kind of intrigued by that large cut off low with deep tropical moisture over the southeast out near 6 days.  A little better phasing and that would be a sizeable system.  Lots to watch means happy weather nerds, excited to be back.  

I think that's associated with Tropical development in the So. Caribbean.

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Haha gotta  love the 3k nam, really goes to town Sunday night in Oswego county, to bad it goes to town a lot lol Obviously taken it with a grain of salt for now..Interested to see other SR models as we get closer..

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Syracuse, N.Y. -- You have one day to get that snow blower running.

The National Weather Service is now forecasting totals of 6 to 8 inches of l ake effect snow in areas southeast of lakes Erie and Ontario, including Syracuse, Sunday night into Monday.

The snow will likely start off light and then ramp up Sunday afternoon and Monday morning as the cold front blows through.

"Lake effect snow becomes better organized by late Sunday continuing into Monday, with upwards of 6 to 8 inches expected," the weather service said. "Snowfall rates may be 1 to 2 inches per hour at times."

The hardest-hit regions are likely to be Oswego, Onondaga and Madison counties in Central New York; and Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties in Western New York.

"Snow and blowing snow will accumulate quickly and cause potentially hazardous travel conditions late Sunday night into Monday morning," the weather service said.

Hazardous weather alerts are in place across nearly all of Upstate for the winds and snow

 

https://articles.newyorkupstate.com/weather/2017/11/6_to_8_inches_of_snow_possible_in_upstate_ny_lake_effect_areas.amp

 

 

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I'm surprised they haven't issued any watches or advisories yet.

I don't think Les watches and warnings are being used anymore. I think they are now blending them in with advisories and warnings. I would imagine this first event of the season will be an advisory but we'll see what they issue. Nothing as of right now.

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27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Hey rich not looking like your warm november is working out lol.  -3.8f on the month with colder temps continiing through the end.  

Yeah not looking good haha. Don’t weak Nina’s tend to have warm November’s? 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

NYZ009-018-036-037-191915-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0005.171119T2200Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-
Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida,
Rome, and Utica
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including the morning commute on Monday. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10
  inches, possible. Heaviest snow expected in far northern
  Onondaga County, and northwest Oneida county.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Sunday afternoon until late Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow especially Sunday night and
  early Monday morning. Temperatures will range mainly in the 20s
  and lower 30s.

 

Gotta get used to the WSW instead of LESW. Good luck everybody in the watch area.

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30 minutes ago, phoenixny said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

NYZ009-018-036-037-191915-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0005.171119T2200Z-171121T0000Z/
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-
Including the cities of Boonville, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida,
Rome, and Utica
204 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including the morning commute on Monday. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up to 10
  inches, possible. Heaviest snow expected in far northern
  Onondaga County, and northwest Oneida county.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida
  Counties.

* WHEN...From late Sunday afternoon until late Monday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow especially Sunday night and
  early Monday morning. Temperatures will range mainly in the 20s
  and lower 30s.

 

Gotta get used to the WSW instead of LESW. Good luck everybody in the watch area.

I don’t think I’ll ever get used to winter storm watches lol. Good luck to all! 

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30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Hey Brian, were ground zero for this potential. Feels good to get the first of the season as usually its either the Tug or Nada, lol!

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Does look promising...reasonably confident we'll get a solid 6"...same timeframe as last years November storm, though less potent this time.  Snowblower is ready!

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Does look promising...reasonably confident we'll get a solid 6"...same timeframe as last years November storm, though less potent this time.  Snowblower is ready!

If she goes quasi stationary, we'll hit double digits but I'm always sceptical of bands forecasted 24hr in advance to only hit 5 miles to our North or South, for that matter. Like you said though, it does look promising.

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I don't know if these watches, advisories or warnings are gonna work, and if so, expect to see quite a bit of pink in our immediate CWA, lol, as there will be a plethora of warnings this yr.

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