Pilotwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 One of the biggest differences is the the timing and duration of the GFS SUN- Monday, EURO SAT-TUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here's a question. Why doesn't the OP just be a blend of all the ensembles like the mean is? Wouldn't that make sense? =/ Well, that's what the ensemble mean is for. The operational run can be looked at as simply the ensemble member initialized with the raw observed data. The other members generally are initialized with some perturbations added to the raw data. Also, the operational run may be higher-resolution than the other members in some cases (I believe this is true of the GFS), which in theory should make it the most valuable single member of the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well theres no closed low in southern Cal and I do recall a couple of runs that did have that. That may not be a big deal, but I don't like surprises early on either. Looks like @12 is lock step with the 12z again to my untrained eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like @12 is lock step with the 12z again to my untrained eyes. has the low closed off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like @12 is lock step with the 12z again to my untrained eyes. yep. Just squinted and saw a small closed off low in central or nw AZ. and now its in central NM at 24. About the same I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm taking a weenie stab at something here, so please don't crush me. but if you look at current national maps it appears our low is near the southern tip of Nevada. The euro initialized SW of there. So is the model supposed to, or capable of, matching current conditions? Otherwise it seems the Euro would be off by a couple hundred miles to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yep. Just squinted and saw a small closed off low in central or nw AZ. and now its in central NM at 24. About the same I think. This was posted by Midlo in the main side model thread, actual conditions at 0z, looks closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yep. Just squinted and saw a small closed off low in central or nw AZ. and now its in central NM at 24. About the same I think. Yea that energy out in Dakotas looked a tad slower but it catches up @30...overall still pretty similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @36 our low is cranking up in Tx. ..more moisture on the NW side out towards IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This was posted by Midlo in the main side model thread, actual conditions at 0z, looks closed thanks. The euro didn't quite have a closed one on its init. panel. Now out to 36 and its almost closed in the TX Panhandle and theres already strong s/w coming into southern Minn or the Dakotas. I'm not sure if this is going to be the primary in the northern stream, but it certainly looks strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @42 it may be a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm taking a weenie stab at something here, so please don't crush me. but if you look at current national maps it appears our low is near the southern tip of Nevada. The euro initialized SW of there. So is the model supposed to, or capable of, matching current conditions? Otherwise it seems the Euro would be off by a couple hundred miles to begin with. I was lookng at mosiac earlier, your right but the low looked like it is in the process of reforming south, was loosing its circular presentation on radar, weird in a way, then seemed to be reforming futher south. I was wondering if what I was seeing was the low opening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 42 its closed over Lubbock Tx, and teh northern stream is pushing down pretty hard. This maybe a little slower than the other models with teh southern stream. I'm pretty sure it is, but I'm exhausted and half asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 48 the northern stream is digging but it looks a little far east. The ULL is in central Tex.I think thats a little far south from where the Euro had it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 42 its closed over Lubbock Tx, and teh northern stream is pushing down pretty hard. This maybe a little slower than the other models with teh southern stream. I'm pretty sure it is, but I'm exhausted and half asleep. I feel you, I have no work this week and I was contemplating not staying up tonight for the Euro. @54 it's heading south our low is around Houston...looks a lot like the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was lookng at mosiac earlier, your right but the low looked like it is in the process of reforming south, was loosing its circular presentation on radar, weird in a way, then seemed to be reforming futher south. I was wondering if what I was seeing was the low opening up. I noticed the same thing with the Gfs. The vapor loop had the low coming in near Baja, like the Doc is apparently showing, yet the model opened up with it closer to middle Cali. and it proceeded to track that way. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 00z Euro looks in lockstep so far through 54HR with the 12z run - timing wise anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is a lot different, if it phases it will be later- not good for us in GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @60 looks close to 12z...light precip all over Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 54 the closed low is still in texas slowly working east -southeast. Theres light snow all over the Midwest and Tenn Valley, extremely light though. The good precip is in Tex. At 60, the closed low is over houston, and the northern stream looks too broad and not as far south to me as it did. I think this is going to be hard to phase unless something happens. There is light precip across the mid and uper south but nothing major, all the good precip is in La and Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @60 looks close to 12z...light precip all over Tn. Please say "Boom goes the dynamite" @72....... Thanks again for staying up for the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 66, its opening up in lousiana, but the northern stream looks rather broad to me, and not sharp enough. Very light precip across the South so far, very very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @66 our low isn't looking as good as 12z it's in southern LA the next few frames will tell us everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @72 light precip is in most of NC and it appears the low is taking about the same track as 12z....mets feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is heading for a GA Coast Phase, not nW GOM. Hope Im wrong and the Northern energy is about to out run us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 at 72 light precip from Carolinas to La. The diging northern stream looks broad, not consolidated and sharp. Theres a 1012 low southf of the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is going to be late, hope I am wrong, but that is what it looks like through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 @78 it looks faster and our low is in the panhandle of Fl....let's see what it does from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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