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Typhoon Tip

Spring Banter & General Discussion/Observations II

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I don't think I've ever seen an Advisory status in effect by NWS for this sort of thing... 

 

"* BEACH HAZARD...THE WARM AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S MAY CAUSE PEOPLE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE DANGERS OF THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 50F. .."

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't think I've ever seen an Advisory status in effect by NWS for this sort of thing... 

 

"* BEACH HAZARD...THE WARM AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S MAY CAUSE PEOPLE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE DANGERS OF THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ONLY 50F. .."

Brand new. 

Well beach hazard statements aren't new, but this specific product is I think. Some coastal WFOs use them for longshore current, or higher surf and rip conditions but not quite to rip current or high surf thresholds. 

But since the press release and media day is today, I can say that the Coast Guard approached us about issuing some kind of product to cover this hazard. The weather gets nice and people hit the water, sometimes without life jackets. And yearly they are rescuing about 80 people due to cold water immersion issues. We're still working out kinks, but more or less we're (GYX and CAR) issuing this until the water hits 60 degrees (about July, or maybe never in CAR's case). 

They showed us the data, it's pretty startling actually. Kevin in his emaciated state even with a life jacket might only survive an hour in water this cold. Someone more horizontally gifted with a life jacket might double or triple that in water this cold. By the time water temps are pushing 60, that could be nearly a full day.

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55 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Brand new. 

Well beach hazard statements aren't new, but this specific product is I think. Some coastal WFOs use them for longshore current, or higher surf and rip conditions but not quite to rip current or high surf thresholds. 

But since the press release and media day is today, I can say that the Coast Guard approached us about issuing some kind of product to cover this hazard. The weather gets nice and people hit the water, sometimes without life jackets. And yearly they are rescuing about 80 people due to cold water immersion issues. We're still working out kinks, but more or less we're (GYX and CAR) issuing this until the water hits 60 degrees (about July, or maybe never in CAR's case). 

They showed us the data, it's pretty startling actually. Kevin in his emaciated state even with a life jacket might only survive an hour in water this cold. Someone more horizontally gifted with a life jacket might double or triple that in water this cold. By the time water temps are pushing 60, that could be nearly a full day.

Oh, I think it's a great idea...  

I lived for a year out on the eastern end of Cape Ann - Rockport - and can tell you ... like  some years even July 10 is still too early to venture in there sometimes. Ur feet ache, and the natural alarm system that all males have as part of their person sounds off pretty loudly that you should probably get out.  Yet people tough it and it's proooobably not entirely healthy.  Kids in particular won't register the warning signs very well and muscle stiffness in cold water can lead to trouble that way too - 

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we're (GYX and CAR) issuing this until the water hits 60 degrees (about July, or maybe never in CAR's case). 

Fighting snark with snark, I think that understates N.Maine water temps - "hypobole"?   Once the lakes stratify, only the top few meters need to warm as temps remain 40 or lower below the thermocline.  Upper layers reach mid-upper 60s for most places by high summer.  CAR averages only about 3F cooler in July than PWM, with most of the difference in the minima, and since CAR is probably the sunnier of the two in July (less fog, at least), insolation does just fine there.

That said, there have already been some coldwater tragedies in Maine/NH, so the warning seems appropriate. 

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31 minutes ago, tamarack said:

we're (GYX and CAR) issuing this until the water hits 60 degrees (about July, or maybe never in CAR's case). 

Fighting snark with snark, I think that understates N.Maine water temps - "hypobole"?   Once the lakes stratify, only the top few meters need to warm as temps remain 40 or lower below the thermocline.  Upper layers reach mid-upper 60s for most places by high summer.  CAR averages only about 3F cooler in July than PWM, with most of the difference in the minima, and since CAR is probably the sunnier of the two in July (less fog, at least), insolation does just fine there.

That said, there have already been some coldwater tragedies in Maine/NH, so the warning seems appropriate. 

This product is also for the coastal waters only. While it is probably just as important early in the lake boating season, we just have too many lakes and too little lake temp data. 

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27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This product is also for the coastal waters only. While it is probably just as important early in the lake boating season, we just have too many lakes and too little lake temp data. 

I've seen BTV issue statements like that for Lake Champlain during early season heat.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I've seen BTV issue statements like that for Lake Champlain during early season heat.

BTV does do something similar for the lake. I can't remember if they have the lake as a separate zone or not. Our lakes are technically considered land.

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

50/45 at 1pm at MVL.

24 hours ago it was 85F at the same time.

we're establishing a whopper gradient right now... It's really 88 to 90 F S and E of a Orange - MHT (sort of..) line, while the front is delayed some 2 to 4 hours.   

Ktan put out a specials re a low risk for SE zones, but i wonder if there's a chance even up here in the interior of eastern ORH hills with that.  either way, tomorrow looks really refreshing and am looking forward to not sweating just sitting here.  ooph.  

The NAM and Euro are interestingly still +8 or so at 850 ...yet, keep the llvs in the low to mid 60s tomorrow - that seems a little low under high full unadulterated May insolation... stranger things have happened 

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7 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Brand new. 

Well beach hazard statements aren't new, but this specific product is I think. Some coastal WFOs use them for longshore current, or higher surf and rip conditions but not quite to rip current or high surf thresholds. 

But since the press release and media day is today, I can say that the Coast Guard approached us about issuing some kind of product to cover this hazard. The weather gets nice and people hit the water, sometimes without life jackets. And yearly they are rescuing about 80 people due to cold water immersion issues. We're still working out kinks, but more or less we're (GYX and CAR) issuing this until the water hits 60 degrees (about July, or maybe never in CAR's case). 

They showed us the data, it's pretty startling actually. Kevin in his emaciated state even with a life jacket might only survive an hour in water this cold. Someone more horizontally gifted with a life jacket might double or triple that in water this cold. By the time water temps are pushing 60, that could be nearly a full day.

Yeah. My wife was asking me about that. Her class was in Ocean Park(?) this week at Natures Classroom (she could walk to OOB) and the staff was earning them about this hazard. 

 

Neat

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One aspect that is somewhat under the radar about this spring is the extremeness of temperatures.  

Firstly, I am not entirely sure what the climatology is for average date of last specific degree, relative to latitude, but... it "seems" to me 39 F at PWM may be unusual?  I mean, a quick internet look up lists PWM's last spring frost as May 2nd year-to-year; so taken for what it's worth, it would seem 39 is close enough to car-top some glistening to wonder if that's pushing it...

Yet, we just broke heat records spanning two days ... before which, we were in the low to upper 40s pan-wide across NE for three days, nested in which was an elevation blue bomb snow storm. 

Those swings are fascinating -  

I love to bring this up, GW, because the vitriol is downright deliciously petty around here... but, the idea of  'excessive variability' is predicted by climate change modeling.  And, it's been occurring actually spanning the last 20 years, with increasing frequency.  Perhaps we are in those phases of the change. I would even argue that the increased occurrences of October and May snow in that time span is related to that variability, too -

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Box AFD:

Quote

915 am update...

High pressure in control will result in a beautiful day to close
out the weekend with light winds. Plenty of sunshine this morning will
give way to some mid/high level cloudiness this afternoon
especially across the interior.

it's been overcast here all morning..

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It's like waiting to see a tornado with these solar eclipses. 

I first heard of them when I as kid, when in southern lower Michigan we happened under a partial.  I remember putting the slide-paper with a pin prick at one end of an card-board tube and seeing approximately half of the disk covered. The image of the sun as the eclipse took place was cast out of the pin hole and you could see it at room luminosity without blinding..heh.  That much wasn't really enough to dim the mid day light unless I imagined it was ...  Yet, obviously they can be total and dim things down almost to night fall.  

The streak across the planet from time to time.... never have they between the Lake and New England.  I suppose I could pony up the dough and fly to where ever one is scheduled, because it doesn't look like one is ever coming to me.  I wonder if there are like zones of the planet that are favored for them. 

Anyway, there is solid total disk-out pig of an eclipse scheduled for the end of August this summer and I'm seriously debating taking a couple days to check it out. 

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