Welcome to American Weather
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
StormchaserChuck

Weak La Nina Winter

16 posts in this topic

This is the same Chuck from like a decade ago? 

Glad to see you have returned. 

Interesting this La Niña call is the only "cool" cool I've seen so far for the upcoming year. Models did just seem to correct for the Niño call over the summer recently into a warm neutral.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro idea from June 1 for June seems to have verified on the high side. If you look at the historical DJF-->MAM-->AMJ transitions historically (+/-0.2C for each period) to try to predict the next DJF, the two leading scenarios do seem to be cold Neutral (-0.3C) or a moderate Nino (+1.0C). 

 

European El Nino Forecast.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking we remain neutral through the winter. I don't think this goes weak La Nina, temperatures are still to warm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wouldn't it make aesthetic sense for this to happen? 

enso.png

Maybe described best as waves, called WWB's, 1 cold then 1 warm, then 1 cold. We are currently coming off of a cold and going into a warm... it's cold considering the usual incline of this pattern. 

 I would say really weak Nina winter, -0.5 to -0.6 ONI DJF. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weak Nina after Strong Nino Winter is pretty easily above normal almost all of North America, sometimes a pattern that rarely breaks all Winter long. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Weak Nina after Strong Nino Winter is pretty easily above normal almost all of North America, sometimes a pattern that rarely breaks all Winter long. 

This past winter was a weak niña as well. So you're saying we are going to have back to back weak niña winter?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My mistake. The Earth is very warm right now, top 3. So the same rules apply. That's really all the Nino correlation does, and a weak Nina will strengthen the Pacific Jet which floods that top 3 warmth inland

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro plume for July, if anything inched a bit warmer for the winter outlook in Nino 3.4.

The years that are similar since 1930 (via reconstructions) for DJF, MAM and AMJ still imply a cold neutral or moderate El Nino to me.

MJJ ONI to DJF ONI has a very strong R-Squared relationship, the oceans don't change much once Jun/Jul are incorporated, so the anomaly in MJJ, *1.388, - 0.05, should produce a very good indication of the DJF value. 

Basically, if MJJ is +0.5C, winter ONI will be around +0.6C, give or take less than 1.0C at about 95% certainty, or give or take 0.7C at 83% certainty.

ONI AMJ: +0.4C ---> (0.4*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.5C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between -0.1C & +1.3C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.5C & +1.5C

ONI AMJ: +0.5C ---> (0.5*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.6C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between -0.1C & +1.3C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.4C & +1.6C.

ONI AMJ +0.6C  ---> (0.6*1.3882)-(0.05) --> +0.8C in DJF formula estimate. 83% chance of winter between +0.1C & 1.5C for DJF, 95% chance of winter between -0.2C & +1.8C

 

July 2017 European El Nino Outlook.png

ONI Transitions Since 1930 and 2017.PNG

ONI transitions MJJ to DJF.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/19/2017 at 0:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think Chuck is beating the 2005-'06 drum a bit, albeit not technically a la nina...it was cold-neutral.

That was right after an El Nino though...this year would be 2 years removed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.