Weak La Nina Winter

[raindancewx]

The Canadian has come in for November / 10/31.  Has a basin wide La Nina now, with the focus around 150W for the coldest surface anomalies. The PDO region / GOA has trended cooler and the box in the Atlantic that I highlighted has trended warmer. Also has a super torch for most of the US.

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

On 10/30/2017 at 6:58 AM, StormchaserChuck said:

As of the latest subsurface image...

 

I think this La Nina goes Moderate, the image resembles Strong, especially with the +gradient building west, but warmer surface tendency may be the difference between a Moderate and Strong event. 

That would be quite interesting. The last time we had a Weak La Niña evolve into a Moderate La Niña and a declining QBO was 1995 to 1996. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On 10/30/2017 at 2:20 PM, fountainguy97 said:

Does this more accurately represent sub-surface temps?  I believe it uses actual bouy reports? 

This paints the Niña as much more anemic under the surface. 

Yes. These maps are more accurate, I think. 

I'm getting lots of intuitions and the CPC data is matching them. 

ONI is tough because this is a 3-month average, but I could see the weeklies peak at -1.7 or something. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

That would be quite interesting. The last time we had a Weak La Niña evolve into a Moderate La Niña and a declining QBO was 1995 to 1996. 

95-96 was never a moderate La Niña, it was always weak. It was also a first year La Niña, coming off an El Niño the winter before, this time, we have a 2nd year La Niña. The QBO was still positive at this point of the year in 95 and it dropped to weakly negative during the winter. 95-96 also had a strong +PDO at this point in time, unlike this year. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

95-96 was never a moderate La Niña, it was always weak. It was also a first year La Niña, coming off an El Niño the winter before, this time, we have a 2nd year La Niña. The QBO was still positive at this point of the year in 95 and it dropped to weakly negative during the winter. 95-96 also had a strong +PDO at this point in time, unlike this year. 

Oh. Okay. So this time the result maybe dramatically different. Thanks for pointing that out. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Yes. These maps are more accurate, I think. 

I'm getting lots of intuitions and the CPC data is matching them. 

ONI is tough because this is a 3-month average, but I could see the weeklies peak at -1.7 or something. 

I may be wrong, but I just don't see how a -1.7 weekly peak is going to happen.

[raindancewx]

The European (free, public) update has Nino 3.4 at -0.5C or -0.6C? Can someone with better eyes confirm that?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

95-96 was never a moderate La Niña, it was always weak. It was also a first year La Niña, coming off an El Niño the winter before, this time, we have a 2nd year La Niña. The QBO was still positive at this point of the year in 95 and it dropped to weakly negative during the winter. 95-96 also had a strong +PDO at this point in time, unlike this year. 

Carbon copy of 2011-2012, don't you think?

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Carbon copy of 2011-2012, don't you think?

I’m going off the rails on a crazy train

[raindancewx]

I've been playing around with predicting the PDO in Nov-Apr for a long time, but I had a breakthrough recently. It seems like Nino 1.2 (October) and the PDO in Mar-Aug (centered on Jun 1) before the cold season are predictive, if you can find a blend that matches on both variables. So my issue with 1995-96 would be that the PDO (Mantua) remained positive - don't think it will this year based on Nino 1.2 being much colder in October and the PDO being less positive in March-August. 1995-96 was also early days for the current AMO phase, much cooler Atlantic. The Nino 1.2 numbers are the old ONI numbers v.4, not v.5, so the numbers are probably at different values now.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

By the way, we never really left La Nina 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've been playing around with predicting the PDO in Nov-Apr for a long time, but I had a breakthrough recently. It seems like Nino 1.2 (October) and the PDO in Mar-Aug (centered on Jun 1) before the cold season are predictive, if you can find a blend that matches on both variables. So my issue with 1995-96 would be that the PDO (Mantua) remained positive - don't think it will this year based on Nino 1.2 being much colder in October and the PDO being less positive in March-August. 1995-96 was also early days for the current AMO phase, much cooler Atlantic. The Nino 1.2 numbers are the old ONI numbers v.4, not v.5, so the numbers are probably at different values now.

 

Yet if region 1.2 were warmer, that would also be a hostile look for cold in the east.

Something is going to give.

[raindancewx]

Here is a look at October 2017 v. October 2016. 

The subsurface waves keep emerging in Nino 1.2 and south of the equator without really making it to Nino 3.4. Western Atlantic, minus the Caribbean remains colder than last year. Eastern Atlantic warmer. SOI did reach +10 in October, and Nino 3.4 was around -0.5C in October, so even though the La Nina is weaker than last year at the surface in Nino 3.4, it does seem to be connecting with the atmosphere now. Best thing it has going for it is how cold Nino 1.2 is compared to last year, that area in October is strongly correlated to the PDO in the following Nov-Apr. So no super positive PDO like last year. Whether it actually goes negative on the Mantua/JISAO scale is an open question, but the Gulf of Alaska is much colder and areas of the NW Pacific are warmer.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

These maps, while I enjoy, are somewhat out of time because of how it's evolving. In the next 2-3 months, all Nino regions should be colder than last year, maybe by a good margin, as isotherm depth becomes reflected at the surface. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Carbon copy of 2011-2012, don't you think?

In terms of QBO progression. Not really. Looks like 2000 to 2001 is a better match. Even though 00-01 was a Third Year Niña.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

In terms of QBO progression. Not really. Looks like 2000 to 2001 is a better match. Even though 00-01 was a Third Year Niña.

Whooooosh.

[raindancewx]

I really don't get NOAA sometimes, the weeklies had -1.4C for Oct in Nino 1.2, but the monthlies have -0.85C. In September and most of the recent two prior months both matched almost exactly.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina1.anom.data

Nino 3.4 for October remained at -0.45C according to NOAA - 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.anom.data

On the latest data set, ONI is probably -0.3C for ASO, +0.2C from last year. On the older data set, probably -0.4C.

[raindancewx]

I've adjusted my PDO N-A method to include raw Sea Surface Temps in Nino 1.2, not anomalies, since NOAA is playing games with the anomalies. Best blend for 2017 is 1978 & 1996. Those years ended up with a slightly positive PDO in Nov-Apr.

[raindancewx]

European update is out. My interpretation would be it has a peak at -0.9C now in January, against a prior -0.7C peak in January. Now has the La Nina dying in April, instead of March. I guess October is right at -0.5C, so Sept-Mar would be just enough time - seven months / five overlapping ONI trimesters - for a NOAA La Nina, but its close, and the Euro will probably change its mind again. The ONI ensembles have been pretty bad, with the outlier ensembles doing better (look at Oct reality v. what it has Oct 1).

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm pretty confident that this will reach a peak ONI of -0.8C.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On 10/13/2017 at 9:11 PM, Stebo said:

Looking at this below, I would disagree

This is going to be the push to Moderate. 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said:

This is going to be the push to Moderate. 

If it goes on for a week or so yes, it is in the right area of the Pacific too. It will also help to slow the cooling along the South American coast as well.

[raindancewx]

JAS ONI was corrected to -0.2C using the colder ERSST V.5, with ASO at -0.4C.

For the warmer ERSST V.4, JAS was corrected to -0.4C, with ASO at -0.5C

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v4.shtml

 

NOAA's PDO value also dropped in October, usually indicative that the JISAO/Mantua PDO will drop.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty confident that this will reach a peak ONI of -0.8C.

The ASO ONI value is -0.4 C.

The event would need to achieve an ONI value 0.6 degrees lower than this in order to approach moderate consideration.

Only one la nina event since 1950 has cooled that much from the ASO value, and that was the 1988-89 strong event.

Not happening imho.

-0.9 is conceivable, but -0.8 is most likely.

If that weren't enough, all non-CFS guidance keeps it weak.

Quite a coupe if it were to go moderate...we'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

JAS ONI was corrected to -0.2C using the colder ERSST V.5, with ASO at -0.4C.

For the warmer ERSST V.4, JAS was corrected to -0.4C, with ASO at -0.5C

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v4.shtml

 

NOAA's PDO value also dropped in October, usually indicative that the JISAO/Mantua PDO will drop.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

 

 

You are "correcting" the CPC?

[raindancewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are "correcting" the CPC?

No, they changed the numbers and I'm pointing it out. They had -0.5C before on the older ONI data set for JAS, now -0.4C

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, raindancewx said:

No, they changed the numbers and I'm pointing it out. They had -0.5C before on the older ONI data set for JAS, now -0.4C

Oh, ok.

I see dropped from -0.2 for JAS to -0.4 for ASO.

[raindancewx]

A lot of times the monthly figures when combined end up at -0.05 or something, and they have to choose -0.1 or 0.0 - that's all it is, rounding. Right is the original JAS figure, left is current JAS figure. Wasn't "correcting" CPC - just pointing out the change. If we end up one trimester short for ONI, the -0.4 will go back to -0.5 I'm sure.

Here are the weeklies

 05OCT2016     20.8 0.1     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.9     28.1-0.6
 12OCT2016     21.8 1.0     24.8-0.1     26.1-0.6     28.2-0.4
 19OCT2016     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.6     26.1-0.6     28.4-0.2
 26OCT2016     21.3 0.2     24.4-0.5     25.9-0.8     28.2-0.4
 02NOV2016     21.2 0.0     24.3-0.6     25.8-0.8     28.0-0.6

 

 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1
 18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
 25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
 01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1

 

Last November was the peak of the last event, at least at the surface.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks for clarifying.

I was confused.

[raindancewx]

I did some research with NOAA's extended SST tool set by limiting ocean temps to only Nino 3.4 and then Nino 1.2 coordinates, and I'm now reasonably convinced that my use of 1932 and a couple older years is OK in a raw SST sense in the Tropical Pacific. In Nino 3.4, October 2007 water temperatures are similar to 1932, 1943, 1944 - years I used. 1944 is somewhat colder, 1932/1943 somewhat warmer. In Nino 1.2, October 2008 and 1943 are similar (warm for a cold ENSO), and 1932, 1943, 1944 were all warmer than 2005 and 2007. This is what I got by comparing the older events to recent events (estimates are italicized). The visuals were consistent with my

Winter	Nino 3.4	Nino 1.2	Analog
1932	25.64	20.31	x2
1943	25.57	21.20	x3
1944	25.13	20.31	x3
1996	26.27	20.31	x3
2005	26.65	19.75	x3
2007	25.33	19.50	x3
2008	26.37	21.37	x2
2012	26.98	20.65	x1
Mean	25.89	20.36	x20
2017	26.22	20.20

My general idea is events that were "Neutral" in the 1930s/1940s would be near-La Nina/cold Neutral today (NOAA's ONI base assumes 0.4C warming from 1936-1965 means to 1986-2015), and cold-Neutrals in 1930s/1940s would be moderate La Ninas today. So 1944, a cold Neutral/weak La Nina is in fact comparable but somewhat weaker than 2007, but more of a Central/Modoki structured event, so its useful as an analog. For me, 1944/2007 is working pretty well for temperatures in Oct/Nov.