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weatherextreme

Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01

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3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Speak of the devil 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
550 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Kearny County in southwestern Kansas...

* Until 630 PM CDT
    
* At 550 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 4 miles southeast of Kendall, or 12 miles west of
  Lakin, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Lakin around 625 PM CDT. 
 

 

kddc_20170427_2251_BR_0.4.png

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
KEARNY COUNTY...
    
At 604 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southeast of 
Kendall, or 8 miles southwest of Lakin, moving southeast at 20 mph.
Storm spotters reported a tornado 6 miles southeast of Kendall.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

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3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
KEARNY COUNTY...
    
At 604 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southeast of 
Kendall, or 8 miles southwest of Lakin, moving southeast at 20 mph.
Storm spotters reported a tornado 6 miles southeast of Kendall.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Nearest SFC ob shows 61/41... DDC VWP is fairly impressive though, 0-1KM SRH of ~185 m2/s2, 0-3KM SRH of ~640 m2/s2.

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Along the bow in NE CO/NW KS.

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Sherman County in northwestern Kansas...

* Until 600 PM MDT

* At 529 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles northeast of
  Kanorado, moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and hail up to two inches in diameter. 

  SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Kanorado.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 2 and 5.
 

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Wow... that's a surprise! Dew points and LCL's don't look to support a TN at all, although a decent amount of ESRH.

Seems like the big days are busting and the write off's are producing! - what is it with cold fronts undercutting and storms lining out this spring ?

My first post by the way - hi from the UK!

 

Samos

 

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8 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Wow... that's a surprise! Dew points and LCL's don't look to support a TN at all, although a decent amount of ESRH.

Seems like the big days are busting and the write off's are producing! - what is it with cold fronts undercutting and storms lining out this spring ?

My first post by the way - hi from the UK!

 

Samos

 

Welcome to the board from across the pond..  I can't get my hopes up too high for Friday in TX and OK but hopefully in coming weeks mother nature will provide a show for all of us.

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Hey thanks Indystorm, appreciate the welcome. I think I'd be playing se OK tomorrow, moving in to C/S AR - ingredients don't seem to be stacked perfectly to me, but doesn't look to be a cold front race this time atleast!

 

Samos

 

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One of the most beautiful, and classic hodographs you will ever see, at all levels. Such a shame that the cold front had to crash.......073ba4affce6c0d67fd8a96028aee718.png

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Looks like this run of the NAM actually breaks out convection between 22-03Z also a bit higher on the dew points.

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I'm seeing absolutely nothing on the 12-km or 3-km NAM through 03z. Looks like the s/w slows down by a couple hours more to put the nail in the coffin... classic. Great way to send off low-level moisture for the next 8-10 days.

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6 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

I'm seeing absolutely nothing on the 12-km or 3-km NAM through 03z. Looks like the s/w slows down by a couple hours more to put the nail in the coffin... classic. Great way to send off low-level moisture for the next 8-10 days.

12km definitely has something both on reflectivity and qpf so does 3km, are you sure you are looking at the right run...? Not to mention you have been saying watch the globals for initiation which they do initiate. As for the NAM is will too, look at the VV fields there is ascent there at 00z and 03z, just because it doesn't show a string of pearls doesn't mean the cap will hold firm.

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

12km definitely has something both on reflectivity and qpf so does 3km, are you sure you are looking at the right run...?

I don't see anything significant really... 3km NAM shows some light radar returns along the WF in SE OK between 23-02Z... thats about it in the warm-sector.

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2 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

I'm seeing absolutely nothing on the 12-km or 3-km NAM through 03z. Looks like the s/w slows down by a couple hours more to put the nail in the coffin... classic. Great way to send off low-level moisture for the next 8-10 days.

3km NAM doesn't convect through 03z and dew-points are basically a wash compared to earlier runs. Less northward extent with 60+ dew-points, but a sharp gradient near the Red River. The parameter space is much more favorable from southeastern MO into KY, but initiation could either be too early, just right or too late depending on just how soon the cap breaks and if early day convection throws a wrench. 

The biggest red flag is the 850mb jet, which is essentially non-existent west of the "tree line" from E TX to the Ozarks. 

955CA3CF-664D-47B1-AD25-9843F05221B8-13780-000008D550C7C2CE.thumb.png.35c255f8ebbaca535bb85728f0d17439.png

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I will say Saturday is looking real interesting on this run of the NAM since Friday doesn't do a whole lot and anything that does form lifts off NE.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I will say Saturday is looking real interesting on this run of the NAM since Friday doesn't do a whole lot and anything that does form lifts off NE.

The convection on Friday has never been the biggest issue for Saturday.

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19 minutes ago, brettjrob said:

I'm seeing absolutely nothing on the 12-km or 3-km NAM through 03z. Looks like the s/w slows down by a couple hours more to put the nail in the coffin... classic. Great way to send off low-level moisture for the next 8-10 days.

Yeah. Tonight's 0Z runs are the final nail in the coffin for tomorrow. Great setup wasted and we'll have to wait awhile for the next one...

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I will say Saturday is looking real interesting on this run of the NAM since Friday doesn't do a whole lot and anything that does form lifts off NE.

In eastern OK in front of the boundary/convection. Environment across most of eastern OK is pretty much exactly like this.2017042800_NAM_048_35.45,-94.9_severe_ml

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Just now, thewxmann said:

The convection on Friday has never been the biggest issue for Saturday.

Didn't say it was, but it does help that things don't go crazy Friday night. I am sure you have a line of reasons why Saturday will be a mess.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I will say Saturday is looking real interesting on this run of the NAM since Friday doesn't do a whole lot and anything that does form lifts off NE.

Unidirectional wind fields above 1km and with greater low-level speed shear than deep layer shear, anything that spins discretely would be very short lived. 

Ugly 500mb wind trajectory given 850-700mb winds. 

IMG_1421.PNG.6a759175e1f7bcbc7dedfcc79f83c08a.PNG

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

In eastern OK in front of the boundary/convection. Environment across most of eastern OK is pretty much exactly like this.2017042800_NAM_048_35.45,-94.9_severe_ml

 

It's goofy to see the 0-1 km shear as the highest shear magnitude listed.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Didn't say it was, but it does help that things don't go crazy Friday night. I am sure you have a line of reasons why Saturday will be a mess.

Me and just about everybody else who understands meteorology. I'm sure you know them too, so I'll spare you from my negativity this time.

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Just now, thewxmann said:

Me and just about everybody else who understands meteorology. I'm sure you know them too, so I'll spare you from my negativity this time.

Lol, go chase the snow in Lubbock you'll enjoy it more.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Didn't say it was, but it does help that things don't go crazy Friday night. I am sure you have a line of reasons why Saturday will be a mess.

I've been bringing it up for two days, but I guess it doesn't quite matter in the long run. 

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3 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

 

It's goofy to see the 0-1 km shear as the highest shear magnitude listed.

Unidirectional profiles from 800mb on up FTW.. Saturday is a good day in the low-levels, but mid and upper levels will probably be meh given the significant amplification of the trough... Also expect widespread warmsector convection, but we'll see what other 00Z models say.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Lol, go chase the snow in Lubbock you'll enjoy it more.

I'm not sure how this is relevant to anything. And yes I'm seriously thinking about it. So?

P.S. why do you have to be such a prick?

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3 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Unidirectional wind fields above 1km and with greater low-level speed shear than deep layer shear, anything that spins discretely would be very short lived. 

Ugly 500mb wind trajectory given 850-700mb winds. 

IMG_1421.PNG.6a759175e1f7bcbc7dedfcc79f83c08a.PNG

Yeah I didn't see the 500mb pattern was just looking at soundings. Didn't realize the trough was lagging that much. Still do think there would be a tor potential though especially in Eastern OK/SE KS/SW MO.

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What an April train wreck given what was a very promising start to the severe season through March. We may not only manage to have a flat late April (a period which generally produces at least one significant tornado event, even in most down years), but botch a large scale pattern that had so much potential. 

Bring on May. Not early May either, because that, as Brett eluded to, looks like a fail as well. 

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Looks like a pretty strong signal for widespread convective contamination at the very least with that meridional jet and impressive UL divergence. No matter how many tornado emojis Reed Timmer puts out, or what the TorCon is, I think the deadliest issue on Saturday will be flash flooding for portions of AR/MO. PWATS around 2" and training storms will be a huge issue. 

Vomit

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Hey on the plus side the added soil moisture can't hurt for later in the season with moisture transport and evapotranspiration.  Gotta make sure of something at least.

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