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Ralph Wiggum

1.7.17 Snow Event

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Looks like Central and Southern NJ may see snow with wave 2 on Saturday. Models have gone from nothing in NJ 18-24 hours ago to some guidance showing over 12" in parts of the area S and E of I95. Notable NW shifts on all guidance at 500mb the past 18 hours or so. Will it continue and push the snows into SE PA???

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ECM is 3" for southeast portions of Jersey and 2" central Jersey. I think that is both waves. 

 

Increased from 0.00" to .03" for NYC however for wave#2 :lol:

Tad different from the NAM eh

 

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Euro was another tick N and W with precip shield. Gets central and southern NJ into accumulating snow now with wave 2. West I95 shutout still as per the Euro. 2-4" type for central and southern Jersey this run. Going to need more than 'ticks' if West of I95 wants to see more than mood flurries.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro was another tick N and W with precip shield. Gets central and southern NJ into accumulating snow now with wave 2. West I95 shutout still as per the Euro. 2-4" type for central and southern Jersey this run. Going to need more than 'ticks' if West of I95 wants to see more than mood flurries.

Yeah, need more like a "jump" West at this point which doesn't seem all that likely. I could see a "tick" East more likely than a "jump" West..

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18z NAM 3k, if it hasn't been posted already, clobbers the NJ peninsula with 8-16" Saturday with a bulls-eye over Town Bank, Villas, Cape May, Wildwood general area. The improving trends continue. Even gets 3-6" up my way. Sref ticked West as well. .5" onshore it appears.

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Just now, PaEasternWX said:

3 questions to consider for upcoming 00z NAM. Will it cave? will it hold serve? or will it continue the northwest trend?

I think it will hold for nj shore, but pull the western edge of precip in making totals drop N/W.  Precip shield extent seems to be the most overdone parts with Nam runs.

  Basically keep things close enough that people on the PA side of the river are the dogs stuck on the wrong side of the glass at the butcher shop.

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16 minutes ago, shemATC said:

I think it will hold for nj shore, but pull the western edge of precip in making totals drop N/W.  Precip shield extent seems to be the most overdone parts with Nam runs.

  Basically keep things close enough that people on the PA side of the river are the dogs stuck on the wrong side of the glass at the butcher shop.

I actually thought the same exact thing. NAM is likely overdone as always. This will be a super tight gradient storm. NW side totals (West of I95)  from the 12km 18Z NAM will be cut (the 4km was overdone and I actually tossed it but was fun to look at anyway).

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I actually thought the same exact thing. NAM is likely overdone as always. This will be a super tight gradient storm. NW side totals (West of I95)  from the 12km 18Z NAM will be cut (the 4km was overdone and I actually tossed it but was fun to look at anyway).

But do you think it caves for 00z or later.

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But do you think it caves for 00z or later.


I don't know. I have seen the NAM hold on strong to an idea like this before and not really 'cave' until 6-12 hours lead time. It can be really stubborn at times and it's hi resolution sometimes hinders it more than helps it along. With that said, I have also seen the NAM lead the way such as with the January Blizzard last year. The latter is a rare occurrence tho.

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Killer gradient storm on the NAM, my family members in Howell NJ get 10" while I suck exhaust at 2".

Please not Feb 5 2010 again. Of course it's only the NAM

 

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I stand corrected.....I thought the 0Z NAM would start eating away the NW side of precip shield. Instead, it seems to have bumped totals again N and W of I95. 12km, 4km, and 3km para all look good for at least 3 or 4 inches in my area (Central Bucks). I should stick to making weather predictions and not model trend predictions probably.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Am I seeing those numbers correct? Is that 999mb dropping to 995mb? In ONE HOUR? A 995mb slp off the DelMarVa and still deepening.

8da1d050c9342be0e335edeab2532082.jpg

 

It's the NAM.  While interesting for sure, I'll wait for others to come on board.  RGEM isn't this bullish and likely GFS will not be either 

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