John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 HRRR keeps insisting on Memphis picking up a nice event today. It's showing 3 to 5 inches around the city ratio adjusted. It's the only model showing more than 1.5 inches or so though. It does well with that band all the way across the state, with areas east picking up 1-2 inches if you happen to be in it's arc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 3K NAM has the same arc to the precip as the HRRR but is lighter. 1-2 inches basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 RAP puts out healthy totals around Memphis as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Temps are much warmer in the Valley than the Plateau currently. 23 here, 23 in Crossville, 21 in London. But lower 30s across Oak Ridge, Knox and Tri. 33 in Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighKnob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: Temps are much warmer in the Valley than the Plateau currently. 23 here, 23 in Crossville, 21 in London. But lower 30s across Oak Ridge, Knox and Tri. 33 in Chattanooga. Why is that? i dropped from 37 to about 33 after the sun went down (near tri), hovered at 33 for hours, and now i am 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog660 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Sitting at 30.1 northwest Knox. Was down to 29.9. Very light small flakes about 2 hours ago. Not sure what's it doing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Every county east of I-81 or that borders NC goes into a warning for 4-7 inches. Every county west of there in an advisory for 1-3 inches. Mentions the alarming trend on the SREF but decides to toss it since the 06z NAM has backed down some on totals. Can't blame them. Has bust potential either way but this is a tight spot, it's hard to forecast when your CWA is on the edge of a big storm. Easy when you're in the middle of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighKnob Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Perhaps the nw jogs have finally stopped, guess its time to root for that 25-50 mile physical placement of the low for the direction that aids your back yard. I can remember where a 45 mile error made the difference in my back yard getting 8' while others squeaked out 1-2'. i m not to proud to beg for an extra .05 of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Every county east of I-81 or that borders NC goes into a warning for 4-7 inches. Every county west of there in an advisory for 1-3 inches. Mentions the alarming trend on the SREF but decides to toss it since the 06z NAM has backed down some on totals. Can't blame them. Has bust potential either way but this is a tight spot, it's hard to forecast when your CWA is on the edge of a big storm. Easy when you're in the middle of it. In other words, the Central Valley (Knoxville and surrounding areas) will be downgraded to an advisory, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Runman292 said: In other words, the Central Valley (Knoxville and surrounding areas) will be downgraded to an advisory, right? Yes, Knox should still be good for 2-3 inches, with more possible on the East side of the county especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Latest from MRXSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 models are looking anemic this am not promising for the eastern valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 20 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said: Latest from MRX Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Snow on the ground here in hardeman county now, right around a half inch at the moment. It's 20 degrees with a windchill in the low teens. It is very chilly my friends!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 models are looking anemic this am not promising for the eastern valleyThe NAM still has most getting 3 inches or so.... I wouldn't look at GFS, CMC or really anything else now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 WATE on the radio says the cut off will be between Severville and Knoxville. Knoxville gets a dusting while Sevierville gets 6". Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I see the hrrr is max 21 hrs and we are not looking for snow till after that that's why it looks weak hope the nam pans out and gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, PowellVolz said: WATE on the radio says the cut off will be between Severville and Knoxville. Knoxville gets a dusting while Sevierville gets 6". Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk what models are they looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 what models are they looking at.Didn't say and IDK which one they use. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This is WATE....... but i guess they could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 well the hrrr 11z @18 is not showing much snow past the mountains were the nam said it would be snowing wonder which one will pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 37 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: models are looking anemic this am not promising for the eastern valley That's a pretty general statement. Which models are looking anemic? NAM still has a good hit. 06Z GFS was similar to past runs. SREF still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This first wave of moisture looks pretty stout on radar. I honestly didn't expect it to be this widespread. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This first wave of moisture looks pretty stout on radar. I honestly didn't expect it to be this widespread. Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkI agree. Hopefully spells out good for us later Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It does look stout however it looks like it is going to be just to the north of Knoxville. Areas north may get some early snow if it holds together. I wander if this batch is reaching the ground as it slides east? Any reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It does look stout however it looks like it is going to be just to the north of Knoxville. Areas north may get some early snow if it holds together. I wander if this batch is reaching the ground as it slides east? Any reports?The leading edge just poked into Knoxville and it is reaching the ground. On a side note the HRRR had this batch of snow a little south of where it is now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Started as flurries 5 min ago and has really picked upSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tucker1027 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Murfreesboro, TN about 30 mins ago. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pouring now just north of Ft CitySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, bearman said: It does look stout however it looks like it is going to be just to the north of Knoxville. Areas north may get some early snow if it holds together. I wander if this batch is reaching the ground as it slides east? Any reports? snowing south knoxville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 43 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: That's a pretty general statement. Which models are looking anemic? NAM still has a good hit. 06Z GFS was similar to past runs. SREF still looks good. hrrr rap I mean the hrrr 12z is not showing snow in valley at 05z sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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