Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!

[LakeEffectKing]

23 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

It was just a weird event. Even when higher returns passed over the area, the intensity would not change. We were under 20-25dbz's for a good 1hr or 2 with 0 accumulation so..... suffice to say, I was livid!

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The band was settling south....typically that means the heaviest snow will be in the northern part of the band as depicted by NWS radar....if radar could shoot at about 200' above ground level, the band would have look substantially different...the Channel 9 radar had much lighter returns (surveying a lower level)...but the heavier returns were JUST to our north.

[CNY-WXFREAK]

Ah ha! Great explanation brutha, thanks.

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[LakeEffectKing]

42 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Ah ha! Great explanation brutha, thanks.

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Lol!  Well, since I have been bored, I drew up a very quick, basic diagram depicting the difference between a stationary band and a "southward" moving band (although the same happens with a northward band)...note that the "max" radar level depiction/returns of a southward moving band doesn't coincide with the observer level as it does with a stationary band.  This is primarily because as a lower/mid level trough that slides through will "tilt" the vertical circulation structure in the upper parts moreso than the lower parts, thus, at radar level, it may "look" as though it should be snowing out if you are on the southern edge of a southward moving band (the flakes at radar level above your head are heading into the surface convergence to the north)

[CNY-WXFREAK]

7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Lol!  Well, since I have been bored, I drew up a very quick, basic diagram depicting the difference between a stationary band and a "southward" moving band (although the same happens with a northward band)...note that the "max" radar level depiction/returns of a southward moving band doesn't coincide with the observer level as it does with a stationary band.  This is primarily because as a lower/mid level trough that slides through will "tilt" the vertical circulation structure in the upper parts moreso than the lower parts, thus, at radar level, it may "look" as though it should be snowing out if you are on the southern edge of a southward moving band (the flakes at radar level above your head are heading into the surface convergence to the north)

Sweet!  At least now I will never wait for the snow to begin with a slowly Southward shifting band, lol!

[LakeEffectKing]

3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Sweet!  At least now I will never wait for the snow to begin with a slowly Southward shifting band, lol!

The one caveat is that if a sharp surface front/trough is pushing through, you may not see as much tilting....the diagram above tends to depict a more common occurance...a subtle midlevel trough sliding though...

[CNY-WXFREAK]

understgood! New AFD is out. KBGM is thinking a foot+ so we'll see

Rapidly deepening cyclone will be tracking through eastern New
England and into the Canadian Maritime provinces. This system will
be increasingly stacked in the vertical with time, as an amplified
and negatively tilted upper trough overtakes it. The end result
for CNY and NEPA will be a moist, cyclonic, and increasingly deep
WNW flow. As alluded to earlier, this will crank up the lake-
effect snow machine off Lake Ontario, with lake-850 mb temperature
differentials of around 20C.

Initially, a 270-280 wind vector Thursday evening will direct a
strengthening Lake Ontario band into northern Oneida county. As
the night wears on, the flow is expected to slowly veer, achieving
a 290 vector by around daybreak. A steady-state 290-300 wind
orientation is then anticipated throughout Friday, and much of
Friday night, directing the greatest potential for heavy snowfall
to near the Thruway corridor, from northern/central Onondaga-
Madison-central/southern Oneida counties. The possible infusion of
Atlantic moisture in the mid-levels (strongly hinted at by model
moisture profiles and simulated water vapor images), favorable
crystal growth characteristics, plus a likely connection to
Georgian Bay, indicate the potential for locally intense snowfall
rates (1-2"/hour). Thus, a watch was issued for Onondaga, Madison,
and Oneida counties.

Outside of persistent lake-effect snow areas, most of the time
Thursday night-Friday night will feature partly-mostly cloudy
and blustery conditions, with passing snow showers and flurries.

[Syrmax]

47 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Lol!  Well, since I have been bored, I drew up a very quick, basic diagram depicting the difference between a stationary band and a "southward" moving band (although the same happens with a northward band)...note that the "max" radar level depiction/returns of a southward moving band doesn't coincide with the observer level as it does with a stationary band.  This is primarily because as a lower/mid level trough that slides through will "tilt" the vertical circulation structure in the upper parts moreso than the lower parts, thus, at radar level, it may "look" as though it should be snowing out if you are on the southern edge of a southward moving band (the flakes at radar level above your head are heading into the surface convergence to the north)

Nice graphic and explanation George. I've heard about this effect previously but had forgotten about it.  Thanks for the refresh!

And yeah my 3" this a.m., as compared to others, may have been that I didn't measure until about 0830. Had I measured earlier it probably would've been a bit less.  Let's hope the next LES event doesn't also underperform.  I'll gladly offer last nights underperformance as appeasement to the lake gods instead of it being the next one.  

[Syrmax]

28 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

understgood! New AFD is out. KBGM is thinking a foot+ so we'll see

Rapidly deepening cyclone will be tracking through eastern New
England and into the Canadian Maritime provinces. This system will
be increasingly stacked in the vertical with time, as an amplified
and negatively tilted upper trough overtakes it. The end result
for CNY and NEPA will be a moist, cyclonic, and increasingly deep
WNW flow. As alluded to earlier, this will crank up the lake-
effect snow machine off Lake Ontario, with lake-850 mb temperature
differentials of around 20C.

Initially, a 270-280 wind vector Thursday evening will direct a
strengthening Lake Ontario band into northern Oneida county. As
the night wears on, the flow is expected to slowly veer, achieving
a 290 vector by around daybreak. A steady-state 290-300 wind
orientation is then anticipated throughout Friday, and much of
Friday night, directing the greatest potential for heavy snowfall
to near the Thruway corridor, from northern/central Onondaga-
Madison-central/southern Oneida counties. The possible infusion of
Atlantic moisture in the mid-levels (strongly hinted at by model
moisture profiles and simulated water vapor images), favorable
crystal growth characteristics, plus a likely connection to
Georgian Bay, indicate the potential for locally intense snowfall
rates (1-2"/hour). Thus, a watch was issued for Onondaga, Madison,
and Oneida counties.

Outside of persistent lake-effect snow areas, most of the time
Thursday night-Friday night will feature partly-mostly cloudy
and blustery conditions, with passing snow showers and flurries.

KBGM usually more conservative than KBUF in terms of forecasted totals and IMO usually more accurate for the border area between the two here in Onondaga and Oneida ctys.  Unscientific, and takes some interpolation between two different forecast maps...just my trained eyeballing of forecast maps over the years. 

This next event looks good for George, Ty and I...I could see a solid 8-12" with higher amts possible somewhere near us.

[wolfie09]

A 290-300 flow is right in fulton's "wheelhouse"

kbuf

The airmass is not overly cold, with 850mb temps dropping to around
-12C. Very deep synoptic moisture and weak ascent will compensate
for this however, and support lake induced equilibrium levels of
over 12K feet off both lakes. BUFKIT soundings from both the GFS and
NAM show a favorably deep layer of dendritic crystal growth, which
will support ideal cloud microphysics and high snow to water ratios
to maximize accumulations.

 

Lake effect snow warnings have been issued for Jefferson, Lewis,
Oswego, Northern Cayuga, and Wayne counties. Lake effect snow
advisories have been issued for Monroe and Orleans counties. The
greatest snow amounts will likely focus across the higher terrain of
the Tug Hill Plateau, with a secondary area of heavier amounts
across northeast Wayne, northern Cayuga, and southwest Oswego
counties. Expect storm totals to reach 12-16 inches in the most
persistent snows

 

 

Storm totals will likely be highest across the Tug Hill Plateau from
the initial pure lake effect, and then the lake enhanced upslope
flow later on. Some of the high resolution guidance such as the 3km
NAMX is picking up on this potential nicely. There may be a
secondary max of heavier storm totals across northeast Wayne,
northern Cayuga, and southern Oswego counties as well if the band of
snow becomes stationary for an extended period of time in that area.

[wolfie09]

Aforementioned 3k Nam

 

 

[CNY-WXFREAK]

44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Aforementioned 3k Nam

 

 

ill take it!

[swva]

Looks like a nice bullseye over Redfield!  I know they get lots of snow but I'm only up here 1 week a year.  Would love to see a nice event.

i think everyone does well with this one.

[wolfie09]

[swva]

7 hours ago, danno said:

Very light dusting in Baldwinsville, nada downtown.  Looks like that band didn't move much:)

SWVA, I'll be up your way tomorrow through the weekend.  Hoping we get some.  It will make or break the weekend for snowmobiling. 

I keep hearing this is going to be a NW wind event setting up central and southern Oswego county.  But I'm seeing a N. Redfield/Boyleston special here.  Winds 270ish from 10:00 pm Thurs to 1:00 am Saturday.  27 hours at 1"-3"/hr.  Hmmmm.  This is the wind from Watertown loacation.  Other wind reports starting on a 240-250, moving to 270 Fri am, but still a prolonged 270ish.

 

DATE	WEDNESDAY  DECEMBER 28				THURSDAY  DECEMBER 29								FRIDAY  DECEMBER 30							SAT
HOUR	1:00 PM	4:00 PM	7:00 PM	10:00 PM	1:00 AM	4:00 AM	7:00 AM	10:00 AM	1:00 PM	4:00 PM	7:00 PM	10:00 PM	1:00 AM	4:00 AM	7:00 AM	10:00 AM	1:00 PM	4:00 PM	7:00 PM	1:00 AM	7:00 AM
SKY	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy	Cloudy
TEMP (F)	30	29	27	28	32	32	33	35	37	37	35	36	36	34	32	30	30	29	28	25	22
WIND CHILL	21	23	25	24	26	24	24	27	29	30	26	27	26	24	21	17	17	16	16	14	19
WIND DIRECTION (AZIMUTH)	280	270	190	150	120	140	150	160	200	240	250	270	270	270	270	280	270	260	270	270	180
AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS (MPH)	10	5	2	3	6	9	11	11	11	9	12	14	17	17	18	21	20	20	18	12	2

Danno, have a great trip!  I think we do well with this event.  Looks like everyone gets in on the action.  NAM still shows us in the bullseye so I guess time will tell.

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Snow has commenced, let the fun begin..

[swva]

Snow just started in Redfield.  Time to sit back and enjoy now.  Wolfe, I have limited internet up here.  You have the latest snow map from NWS Buf?  Any changes?

[wolfie09]

Exactly the same, 12"-18" for most of the county, 18-24" for the tug.. Snowing moderate to heavy ATM..

[lakeeffectkid383]

I know not much compared to what most of you guys are gonna be getting but was a nice little surprise to wake up to 1.6" of new snow and radar looking like we're about to double that amount quickly very shortly with some very heavy returns about to move in. I expected a half inch at best.

[CNY_WX]

Snowing heavily here. Received almost half an inch in the last half hour. 

[swva]

Same here!  Coming down moderate to at times heavy.  Haven't measured but eye balling it I would bet we are closing on 1" in the last hour.

[wolfie09]

just under 2" here in about 2 hrs..

[lakeeffectkid383]

3.3" here as the final flakes fall. Definitely a nice little surprise. Puts me over just 30" for the season, so not great but certainly not horrible for only being the end of December. 

[swva]

2" in 2 hours here.  Still snowing light to moderate.

[wolfie09]

This back edge is packing a nice punch, flake size has increased dramatically as well..

[swva]

Good to hear because very light fine snow falling here.  Has picked up a bit in the last 5 minutes.

[swva]

3.25" in 4.5 hours so far and snowing light to moderate.  Not bad for round 1!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

I'd bet money that KBGM goes with ADV's instead of Warnings.  The reason being is that they can always upgrade to a warning if deemed necessary which is what they do quite often. Its hours until the start time of this event and there are still watches posted???  I have nothing against KBGM but I'am sick of their forecasting tactics, instead of doing their job which, is to forecast the weather for the general public and forewarn the public of imminent hazardous conditions.  

They have accumulations approaching 12-18" without any notice.  How many people out there know where about to get raked by LES unless KBGM know's something we don't and KBUF doesn't.  KBUF is straight warning happy but at least it gets the point across, NO?  I realize we're in upstate NY and 3" means nothing but it does to the tourist who's visiting for the holidays.

Just a straight poor job IMO!

[CNY-WXFREAK]

TBH, I could care less about them putting up any headlines but I'm not talking about us, here on the board, who know whats coming before they do sometimes, but rather for the people who get up every morning and go to work.

[CNY_WX]

The synoptic part of the storm is over and I measured 3 inches from it, not bad. I agree that KBGM is dragging it's heels on making a call on the impending lake snow event. I sometimes feel like they put more effort in forecasting northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier than up here in the far northern hinterlands.