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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Well if it helps, here are the KAVL temperature graphs for the 2010-2011 Weak/Moderate La Nina. Early to mid-November was a scorcher and then it plummeted well below average toward the end, and through nearly all of January. Hopefully we can follow the same pattern.

 

Temperature_anamolies.jpg

Yeah I remember that year very well. It's like December came and the whole pattern flipped.  We literally went into the freezer. We had 2 feet of snow Christmas weekend.  

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10 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Another cold frosty morning with a low of 31 degrees. Yesterdays high was in the 60s so not too bad at all. The warm weather will be here but the indices all look good going into November.  No way the upper level features don't respond to that.

I agree..... if the indices that are modeled today continue to keep that look, you will see a dramatic change in the long range forecasts over the next week. We are nearing the point in the season when a +PNA / -NAO / -AO has a more pronounced effect. Obviously it would have greater implications if it were in January, but hey, I'll take it. Maybe we are setting the table for the winter pattern....

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10 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I agree..... if the indices that are modeled today continue to keep that look, you will see a dramatic change in the long range forecasts over the next week. We are nearing the point in the season when a +PNA / -NAO / -AO has a more pronounced effect. Obviously it would have greater implications if it were in January, but hey, I'll take it. Maybe we are setting the table for the winter pattern....

Yeah I agree. I'll be keeping a close look at the indices for sure. The long range just seems not to be responding currently. 

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This morning's GFS looks awful for any cold weather let alone normal weather. Next week it a toaster bath. Very warm for this time of the year. The Pac NW looks awful and there is really no hint of cold in the conus. The euro weeklies look good apparently but I'm not biting yet.  What they are showing is a month away. I think the pattern change collapses by then.

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The models are waffling but I'm not surprised . The Polar vortex is taking a beating and the indices continue to all look great. The AO is just very impressive with staying negative and very negative at that. also it looks like we get a reprieve in the super warmth we have been seeing around the 3rd of November then I think another brief warm up then the hammer drops.

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The models are waffling but I'm not surprised . The Polar vortex is taking a beating and the indices continue to all look great. The AO is just very impressive with staying negative and very negative at that. also it looks like we get a reprieve in the super warmth we have been seeing around the 3rd of November then I think another brief warm up then the hammer drops.

 
 

Umm.....

standard.jpg

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Keep us posted Met!

 

I thought the leaves this year were pretty terrible, at least around here. A little splash of color then straight to brown. And I guess because it's so dry, the trees stripped them. We're buried. That doesn't usually happen until Thanksgiving. Looks like winter with record heat. Kind'a strange.

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27 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Keep us posted Met!

 

I thought the leaves this year were pretty terrible, at least around here. A little splash of color then straight to brown. And I guess because it's so dry, the trees stripped them. We're buried. That doesn't usually happen until Thanksgiving. Looks like winter with record heat. Kind'a strange.

Lol no kidding !  Pretty much the same here. It looks like Fall but feels like summer. What a strange crappy past 12 to 18 months we have had.

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39 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Nothing really new besides we stay dry and above normal for another month probably .  our pattern change seems to have been delayed if we even havery one .  

Call me a cliff jumper if you want, but I don't think this winter will feature even average snowfall. After last year, I'm fairly certain it will take this winter, and maybe one more before we see another good one. That screaming Pacific Jet is screwing us and it's not going to stop. 

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25 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Call me a cliff jumper if you want, but I don't think this winter will feature even average snowfall. After last year, I'm fairly certain it will take this winter, and maybe one more before we see another good one. That screaming Pacific Jet is screwing us and it's not going to stop. 

Good Lord, take a step back, man. If it were just the SE torching, you might be onto something. However, all of the U.S. and the majority of Canada are roasting well above normal. It will break at some point. It has to. Alberta isn't going to experience 20°+ departures, all winter long. You're right in that our winter may just suck, but it won't be because our current nationwide pattern stays the same all winter long. It just won't. 

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15 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Good Lord, take a step back, man. If it were just the SE torching, you might be onto something. However, all of the U.S. and the majority of Canada are roasting well above normal. It will break at some point. It has to. Alberta isn't going to experience 20°+ departures, all winter long. You're right in that our winter may just suck, but it won't be because our current nationwide pattern stays the same all winter long. It just won't. 

Yeah I mean it early but wow had this year been a big cluster F! This year has been one of the warnest I can remember .  This fall has been one of the warmest. We have a long way to go but I do not like seeing the cold air on the other side of the world.

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