WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[Chinook]

Supertyphoon Champi earlier with over 120kt of base velocity near Guam

[Chinook]

[WxWatcher007]

Narrowly escaped a big time hit.

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Narrowly escaped a big time hit.

Sometimes the tightness/RI *saves* and area from a bigger hit.  Melissa over Jamaica was similar.  If Melissa had be a long-tracked Cabo Verde, it would have been much larger when striking Jamaica.  Sure, it may not have been as intense since multiple ERCs would preclude its sub-900 mb intensity, but a large Cat 4 impacting the entire island vs. only 1/3 of the islands getting Cat 3+ winds is not the same.  Also, the wrn 1/3 of Jamaica is significantly less populated, and one of its main airports went largely unscathed, and the other being on the N coast on the wrn side of the island had sig less impact than if it were on the S side.

Compare to Gilbert at cat 3 in Sep 1988 that cut down the full length of the Jamaica E-W w/ the entire land devastated.  80% of home lost their roofs.

At least w/ Melissa on about 1/2 of the island, one could find relief, relatively speaking, short-term before full aid arrived and was distributed.

[olafminesaw]

Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win 

[Chinook]

category 5

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win 

I am assuming that the AI models use historical tracks and climatology more so then the physics models. From my understanding of AI. Not your typical analogs but everything that’s possible. If anyone has more information on the subject I would love to hear it.


.

[olafminesaw]

27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I am assuming that the AI models use historical tracks and climatology more so then the physics models. From my understanding of AI. Not your typical analogs but everything that’s possible. If anyone has more information on the subject I would love to hear it.


.

Yeah it's mostly machine learning data correlations and such as far as I've heard, but I'm not sure that the specifics are really well understood by the weather community anyway. Actually there was a little segment about the deep mind and Isiais on NPR this morning and they were saying how mostly the project is worked on by non-meteorologist, not even programers with meteorology experience,  mostly neural network engineers

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah it's mostly machine learning data correlations and such as far as I've heard, but I'm not sure that the specifics are really well understood by the weather community anyway. Actually there was a little segment about the deep mind and Isiais on NPR this morning and they were saying how mostly the project is worked on by non-meteorologist, not even programers with meteorology experience,  mostly neural network engineers

People are now talking about how Google Deep-mind ensembles beat the other ones on Hurricane Isaias.