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Severe Weather Threat 7/1


NJwx85

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

 

...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY INTO TNGT...
SEASONABLY STRONG 700-500 MB FLOW ALREADY PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE
NERN U.S. WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E/NE INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATER TODAY/TNGT AS GRT LKS TROUGH CONTINUES GENERALLY EWD.
SFC/STREAMLINE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT A CONFLUENCE AXIS IS BEGINNING
TO EVOLVE THIS MORNING FROM ERN WV NWD INTO CNTRL NY...WELL E OF
BOTH THE OHIO COLD FRONT AND WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THE SAME
TIME...SFC AND SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F AND PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ SPREADING NWD
FROM THE DELMARVA REGION ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ.

CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND MOISTENING ALONG WITH MODERATE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH UPR TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTN STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN WEAKLY-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN NY SWD INTO
MD-VA. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG THE CONFLUENCE
AXIS AND...POSSIBLY...ON ERN EDGE OF WRN PA/NY CONVECTIVE BAND.

AMPLE /40+ KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...BUT STORM MODE WILL BE COMPLEX GIVEN MULTIPLE
SOURCES OF LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND WEAK CINH. WITH TIME...OVERALL SET-UP
SUGGESTS LIKELY EVOLUTION INTO A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE NE/SW SQLN...WITH
THE MOST PROGRESSIVE/LONG-LIVED PART CONTINUING EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL
NEW ENGLAND BY EVE. STORMS THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL /ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN/...WITH INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR DMGG WIND. DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE AND TERRAIN
INTERACTIONS...SOME RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY FROM ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW
ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE
...WHERE IT APPEARS THAT MOST
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INCREASING MOISTURE/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
RESIDE ATOP POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

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Kiss of death, Snowlover. :D

Mesoscale Discussion 1104

< Previous MD

MD 1104 graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...DE...NRN MD AND WRN NEW

ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011651Z - 011845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN

COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR

DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A WW WILL

LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERN

NY INTO ERN PA WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND WEAKENING

CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE

IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PROMOTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND

CORRIDOR OF DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE

TROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN

500-1500 J/KG...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE

SFC-LAYER WARMS. A BELT OF 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR

WHICH SUGGESTS SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. MIXED

STORM MODES WITH BOTH MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE

EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

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