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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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000
NOUS44 KFWD 252255
PNSFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261100-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
455 PM CST WED NOV 25 2020

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR ARLINGTON TORNADO EVENT ON NOVEMBER 24...

.ARLINGTON TORNADO 11/24/20...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS NORTH AND 
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EVENING OF NOVEMBER 24, 2020. MOST OF THE
DAMAGE WAS ATTRIBUTED TO STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, HOWEVER, AN NWS SURVEY
CREW DETERMINED THAT AN EF2 TORNADO STRUCK PORTIONS OF ARLINGTON
JUST BEFORE 9 PM. 

RATING:                 EF2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    115 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  5.0448 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   150.0 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               5

START DATE:             11/24/2020
START TIME:             08:51 PM CST
START LOCATION:         1 E DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS / TARRANT
COUNTY / TX
START LAT/LON:          32.692 / -97.1472

END DATE:               11/24/2020
END TIME:               08:58 PM CST
END LOCATION:           3 WNW GRAND PRAIRIE / TARRANT COUNTY / TX
END LAT/LON:            32.7204 / -97.0684

SURVEY SUMMARY:
AN EF-2 TORNADO MOVED THROUGH ARLINGTON PRODUCING MOSTLY EF-0 AND
EF-1 DAMAGE, BUT A SMALL AREA OF EF-2 DAMAGE WAS FOUND. THE
TORNADO BEGAN NEAR WEST MAYFIELD ROAD AND SOUTH BOWMAN ROAD WHERE
FENCE, SHED AND TREE DAMAGE WAS FOUND. THE TORNADO TRAVELED
NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOCATION CAUSING MINOR TREE DAMAGE.
SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL STRUCTURES WAS NOTED ALONG
COLORADO LANE. THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED SOUTH COOPER STREET AND
DAMAGED A BURGER BOX FAST FOOD RESTAURANT, SAFELITE AUTOGLASS
STORE, AND SEVERAL WAREHOUSES IN THE AREA. THE TORNADO DAMAGE IN
THIS LOCATION AND ALONG COLORADO LANE WAS AT EF-1 INTENSITY.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED ALONG AN EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK WHERE IT SOON
IMPACTED THE WATERDANCE AND MIRAGE APARTMENTS. CONSIDERABLE ROOF
DAMAGE WAS NOTED AT THESE COMPLEXES, BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE OCCURRED AT THE WATERDANCE APARTMENT COMPLEX. LARGE
SECTIONS OF THE ROOF WERE RIPPED OFF OF TWO BUILDINGS, RESULTING
IN AN EF-2 RATING AT THIS LOCATION. FROM THE APARTMENT COMPLEX,
THE TORNADO WEAKENED AND TRAVELED NORTHEAST FOR A FEW MORE MILES
BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR EAST PARK ROW DRIVE AND CARTER DRIVE.
SPORADIC TREE, SIDING, FENCE, AND SHINGLE DAMAGE WAS NOTED TO THE
END OF THE PATH. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS TORNADO WERE AROUND
115 MPH. 

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

$$

JLDUNN
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I have my doubts about these totals (I'd have gone T-1"), but we'll see. Storm is behaving a bit differently than anticipated and has a bit more moisture too.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
248 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020

NMZ218-219-280400-
/O.EXB.KABQ.WW.Y.0020.201128T0600Z-201128T1600Z/
Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
248 PM MST Fri Nov 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM MST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Santa Fe Metro Area and Middle Rio Grande Valley
  including the Albuquerque Metro Area.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

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The city ended up seeing nothing - not even measurable rain with the advisory storm.

Latest models have the mountains getting snow the next few days, but not too much. The Euro has been showing a bigger storm grabbing subtropical moisture starting around 12/5 or 12/6. It's shown for several runs now.

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The Euro lost the storm down here on the most recent run. If that continues, we're not getting jack in the city until at least 12/10 or so. Anything that comes through with the current system(s) will be at most a dusting to an inch of snow and I expect nothing. Hoping the cold verifies at least. The local observations haven't been working so it is hard to tell if the cold front has arrived at the airport. It is windy here.

Edit: I got 0.2", and the airport got nothing. But the Westside and towns north of the city got 2-6", even locally up to 8 inches of snow. So much for that. The 3-km NAM actually have a pretty good area of snow just north of the city and that worked out fine.

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Image

That's probably the most moisture I've seen a model show in Arizona in at least six months. Not thrilled to see the Euro changing the location of the moisture every 12 hours, but the trend in increasing moisture is nice to see. A lot of it will likely be snow.

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I went with 0.1-0.4 inches of precipitation for Albuquerque with the coming system. Pretty decent snows are likely for the mountains. There was another SOI crash last night of 10 points, so I'll be on the lookout for a system around 12/19. Something tends to come through in the 12/26-12/30 time frame in NM/CO, so I'd expect two more decent storms after this one as a minimum, so we'll have a shot a wetter than average December.

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Tornado Warning
LAC079-240400-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0088.201224T0324Z-201224T0400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
924 PM CST Wed Dec 23 2020

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Rapides Parish in central Louisiana...

* Until 1000 PM CST.

* At 924 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Glenmora, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Lecompte around 945 PM CST.
  Cheneyville around 950 PM CST.
  Poland and Echo around 955 PM CST.
  Ruby around 1000 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Woodworth, Forest Hill and Mcnary.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 58 and 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3127 9223 3115 9223 3114 9222 3112 9223
      3102 9222 3098 9236 3100 9239 3099 9241
      3097 9242 3096 9245 3092 9263 3109 9270
      3129 9224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 248DEG 33KT 3104 9258

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

13

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Looks to me like there is a non-trivial chance of seeing all the main indexes that support cold in New Mexico to be in the favorable cold positions in January. Essentially a +WPO and then blocking with a low by Alaska.

Image

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Not a lock just yet, but increasingly looks like this December will finish with every day seeing a high below 60 degrees, and every morning seeing a low 32 degrees or colder. Both are pretty rare in December.

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The pattern so far this season is for all the models to have deep cold air and then back off as we get closer to the cold spell. I already see this trend starting to happen in all of the 6z models with this New Year's Eve event. While the track of the upper low is ideal, the source region and the depth of the cold have been questionable from the get go on this event. There is no true Arctic air involved. We will see how the models trend as we get closer. My gut feeling for DFW is that this is a cold rain with maybe a few sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in.

We have a decent stratospheric warming event taking shape and 50/50 teleconnections in our favor (-AO, +PNA, -NAO) for developing Arctic cold in about 7 to 10 days. Time will tell if this can translate into some verifiable cold air. We have only hit 28°F at DFW as the coldest low and the winter is 1/3rd over.

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1 hour ago, DFWWeather said:

My gut feeling for DFW is that this is a cold rain with maybe a few sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in.

Given how consistent 40 degrees and rain has been the past five years, your gut is probably correct

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From the latest AFD:

Forecast soundings reveal a warm
nose near 850mb and surface temperatures near or just above
freezing across areas further east, including the DFW Metroplex,
which would likely result in liquid rain or a period of light
freezing rain prior to daybreak on Thursday. 

Like clockwork lol. Accumulations have been removed from the hourly too. Tired of this happening with nearly every system season after season after season

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On 12/28/2020 at 9:51 AM, DFWWeather said:

The pattern so far this season is for all the models to have deep cold air and then back off as we get closer to the cold spell. I already see this trend starting to happen in all of the 6z models with this New Year's Eve event. While the track of the upper low is ideal, the source region and the depth of the cold have been questionable from the get go on this event. There is no true Arctic air involved. We will see how the models trend as we get closer. My gut feeling for DFW is that this is a cold rain with maybe a few sleet pellets or snow flakes mixed in.

We have a decent stratospheric warming event taking shape and 50/50 teleconnections in our favor (-AO, +PNA, -NAO) for developing Arctic cold in about 7 to 10 days. Time will tell if this can translate into some verifiable cold air. We have only hit 28°F at DFW as the coldest low and the winter is 1/3rd over.

Yeah...unfortunately, there has been no cold air anywhere in the lower 48 so far this winter.  As an example - for the current cold season through 12/27, Chicago (ORD) has only seen 5 days with a low temp colder than 24F.  And there were only 2 (!!) such days through 12/23.  That is just ridiculous.  

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28 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

38 and its raining cats and dogs here in Irving. Got a runble of thunder too

Hearing that there is some sleet mixed in with your batch further west.

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