Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8


wxmx
 Share

Recommended Posts

My pure analogs had 3-5F below average for March in North Texas. I didn't buy it...so I warmed it up 2F. But maybe I should have given what may happen next week.

For Albuquerque, every El Nino back to 1931 that has achieved six days with accumulating snow has had a 7th. We had day six on Friday.

0l6mAsO.png

If the rule holds, it means snow in March or April since we're done with snow in February.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Early next week is becoming interesting for areas north of I-20. Still many days to watch so I am being cautious for now about getting my hopes up.

I'm expecting the usual "35 and pouring outside" we've been getting this winter and last

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, cheese007 said:

I'm expecting the usual "35 and pouring outside" we've been getting this winter and last

Looking at all of the models it has a 3/2/14 feel with very cold air to our NE and a shortwave out of the NW. That produced a line of sleet thunderstorms followed by light dry snow the next day. For that to happen we need the shortwave to be stronger than modeled though. As it stands I see 30s and rain on Monday followed by very cold air and maybe light snow north of I-20 on Tuesday. I am not seeing much room for good snow, but if the high can come down over 1050 MB and a bit further W it is possible late Monday. Wed morning looks like around 20 (warmer if no snow and colder if there is snow on the ground). Wed morning will likely  be the coldest of the season, but whether that is just barely colder than January or much colder is TBD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guess we got the icy surprise after all. As for the weekend system, it seems that the moisture will clear out before temps have a chance to drop below freezing, with Monday and Tuesday being bone dry. Unless we get a spring break surprise again this winter is effectively a wrap 

EDIT: WWA Just extended until noon. Maybe a long day ahead of us 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 here this morning. We may see the low 40s today with drizzle, a long cry from the near 70 and sunny predicted a couple days ago. Tomorrow may reach 50 with showers. Sunday looks like temps falling into the 30s but little to no post frontal precip on any model. 30s to low 40s and cloudy Monday. Best shot I see for precip late Monday is for the GL upper low to be weaker and shift west. This would keep us in more zonal flow vs NW fow and it would allow the shortwave a chance to not fully shear out. The cold stays around through Wed before a warm-up Thu ahead of the next cold front next Friday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For Dec-Jan, snowfall, and precipitation overall, I'm pretty happy with what I had this winter, it was the analogs +1F generally for Dec-Jan.

ZnvtZ01.png

O76UgjZ.png

 

February is super different though - it went to the +9 SOI map you'd expect. Overall, still close for highs in most parts of the US outside the Dakotas, Montana, and coastal SE.

5UQKiSK.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's a tornado pattern. Also, the storm depicted on 3/11-3/12 is the most precipitation I've ever seen a model show for March in New Mexico. The Euro has had over an inch of precipitation for several runs now, and the start of the event would be Monday morning. I'm sure it would find a way to snow even toward El Paso if the storm verified as depicted.

D1BVy9bV4AAitig.jpg

D1BePC3UcAALFPn.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just like in last November, and last winter as well, strato snow (low level cold dome, with overrunning warm, relatively moist air) was seen at around 1300m+ a couple of days ago. Pretty uncommon occurrences, that have become more frequent these last 2 winters. By Saturday we expect highs in the mid 90s. Not even Vivaldi executed his Four Seasons so fast.

mty_1.thumb.jpg.6bf66346b9fcbb73e0dcb45a3b1042b6.jpg
mty2.thumb.jpeg.20f5a41942490d42caa91e4583b3cfc5.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

That's a tornado pattern. Also, the storm depicted on 3/11-3/12 is the most precipitation I've ever seen a model show for March in New Mexico. The Euro has had over an inch of precipitation for several runs now, and the start of the event would be Monday morning. I'm sure it would find a way to snow even toward El Paso if the storm verified as depicted.

The mountains will likely see the heaviest snow totals in a good long while. These big March snow storms used to be more common. Hope this is a return of that trend. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro is still much higher than the other models for the Mon-Tue event, and some hints now it may begin Sunday Night or linger into mid-week. As a blend, I usually weight the NAM 3-km, Euro, GFS, at 2:1, 2:1, 1:1, once we're within 48 hours of an event. At this range, the Euro is still better than the NAM. So the current weighting would be something like 1.25" x2, 0.4" x2, 0.3" x1, for 0.75". But I think anything from 0.25" to 1.50" is possible for total precipitation in much of NM from Mon-Wed. The NWS radar beam is down, so I'm sure they are going to some weird things to try to forecast this event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Albuquerque is up to 0.50" as of 8 pm with this storm. Wettest March since 2007. My Spring Forecast had 0.75" for March, so that looks...not bad. At least for now. There were two big SOI crashes 3/8-3/10, and 3/9-3/11 that support some kind of big storm around 3/21 or 3/22 in the SW. We'll see

I ended up going with these amounts for Mon/Tue/Weds in the city:

Monday: 0.05"-0.40" - 0.21" actual

Tuesday: 0.30"-0.70" - 0.29" actual through 8 pm. (Maybe a bit as snow very late)

Wednesday: 0.05-0.40" - ?? (Maybe some as snow)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

March ended up with a high of 62.2F here, but that is the coldest March since 2010 in Albuquerque.

Rains today (trying valiantly to go over to snow, but it is 35F) also make March 2019 the wettest March in the city since 2005.

My Spring Forecast had 59.8F / 0.75" for Albuquerque in March, we'll end up at 62.2F / and at least 0.67".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS-based models (GFS and GFS-FV3) are placing the warm front with the Saturday system just south of DFW on the 0z runs.  Those models do seem to have moved the front's location slightly further north with each of the last few runs.  The 0z runs puts DFW in the upper-50s for dewpoints with mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints just to the south and SE.

It will be interesting to see how far north the warm front can come, as well as what the NAM has to say about it as it comes into range.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow night could feature some strong storms for N TX and Saturday afternoon in E & SE TX looks volatile with tornados possible. As the system exits Sat night into Sun morning there will likely be some snow on the backside. It is questionable how much will wrap around south of the Red River though. Upper Levels will be plenty cold down to I-20 and surface will be in the upper 30s most likely all depends on how far south the moisture can wrap around. Maybe somewhere like Denison gets a dusting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The high risk 'bust' of 2017 is flashing in my mind in regards to Saturday. Conditions certainly do set up to support a significant severe weather event, but I'm not sure which mode will be dominant. A QLCS would result in plenty of damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes while a semi-discrete supercellular mode would probably have a substantial tornado threat. Lousiana is pretty much doomed at this point since timing is set up to support both modes out that way. I'm just not sure we'll get it done in East Texas before we veer or have VBV issues. Hopefully, we get more answers than questions with the 0Z model suite. We'll also have to see how far west the threat sets up on Saturday considering the slowing trend in data over the last day. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...