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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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The JAMSTEC update for June looks like it has borderline El Nino conditions for mid-Oct to mid-Feb, with the rest of the forecast period merely "warm neutral". Whatever you'd call it, the trend is way down since April when the Jamstec had a super El Nino, and May when it had a pretty healthy 2009-like El Nino.

The good news for the West, is that the Jamstec has also corrected away from forecasting an El Nino Modoki to showing a relatively traditional (if weak) El Nino.

Looks like a low solar, weak, traditional, warm AMO, warm PDO, post ~La Nina, post wet monsoon Summer, El Nino-ish winter for the West.

Blend of 1943 (x6), 1986 (x2), 1997 (x1), 2006 (x6) seems like a pretty good match to what the Jamstec shows.

 

JAMSTEC June 2017 Analogs 2.png

JAMSTEC June 2017 Analogs 1.png

Jamstec June 2017 v May 2017 Modoki Outlook.png

Jamstec June 2017 v May 2017 Outlook.png

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