atownwxwatcher Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't there an 18z UKMET? Yes but the place i get it from only goes out to 60 hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Right now all we have going for us is the Euro, Euro ensembles, and a late developing GGEM. I sooner have the Garbage Forecasting System, NOflats model and the Asian combo JMA/KMA on my side then the pathetic Euro and it's ensembles with a side GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not that I am comparing this to 1996 but was not the ECM the only model that locked on to its solution of an east coast blizzard at 7 days out and never wavered? I seem to recall that & the media downplaying it and calling for flurries the night before even because the GFS was the last to the bandwagon of the ECM... Yeah, I think this is essentially how it played out. And there are hundreds of examples over the years. I just feel like the synoptic default is a miss to the SE, and it will take something unusual to buck this tendency. I also don't believe the Euro has locked onto a consistent solution. But I do feel more comfortable with it than any other single model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Your "support" comes from non-major models. Your best shot is the GGEM ENS. The UK is sort of in the middle of things. I doubt the 967 it has would go OTS from what I read. In fairness to you the 12Z GME weather model from the German Weather Service also shows a coastal hugger at hour 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yes but the place i get it from only goes out to 60 hrs.... It goes out to hour 72 on Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the gfs ens look exactly like the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, definitley not encouraging to see the gfs, gfs ensembles, ukmet, ggem ensembles, kma, jma, etc show an out to sea scenario. it seems to me the euro is once again way overdone (like it was for that fluke run with the last storm) and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the euro go towards the other models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Let's make a list for all of the models. FOR STORM Euro- BOMB UKMET- BOMB GGEM- Decent Nor'Easter NAM- Similar to the ECMWF. NO STORM GFS- OTS but variable KMA/JMA- OTS DGEX- Supressed NOGAPS- Supressed Why is it that the bad models indicate no storm, and the good models say go storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not that I am comparing this to 1996 but was not the ECM the only model that locked on to its solution of an east coast blizzard at 7 days out and never wavered? I seem to recall that & the media downplaying it and calling for flurries the night before even because the GFS was the last to the bandwagon of the ECM... It was. The Friday before the event all my local forecasts were for flurries that Sunday. Obviously they were looking at only the American junk. Accu Weather and Elliot Abrams were the only ones that week talking about the possibility of a major storm. I ended up with 30" of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 LMAO at the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The reason why the GFS isn't looking so great is that the Northern Jet looks bad. Southern Jet looks excellent, and h5 also looks great, which indicates that from h5 to surface reflection there seems to be surface reflective errors on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 In fairness to you the 12Z GME weather model from the German Weather Service also shows a coastal hugger at hour 132. The what? Never heard of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well, definitley not encouraging to see the gfs, gfs ensembles, ukmet, ggem ensembles, kma, jma, etc show an out to sea scenario. it seems to me the euro is once again way overdone (like it was for that fluke run with the last storm) and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the euro go towards the other models tonight. It may take an exact same path as the last storm, which I hate to say because the chances of that happening to back-to-back winter storms is very unusual considering the upper air pattern change after a major storm, but two things yesterday raised red flags: 1) The overbearing 50-50 low. and 2) I believe the 12Z GFS jumping the surface low to the northwest once it reached the coast, which has very little chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 tmagan I'm a little surprised you used JMA and KMA to make a point, and then went as far as to call them major models. As far as I'm concerned, and I'm assuming most mets feel the same way, major models =GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM and to a degree the NAM when it gets to the shorter term or the middle of its range. That doesn't mean we should discount an OTS possibility, it is to say though that ANY DAY I'd take GGEM/ECM/UK over any other countries models. Btw KMA was awful with the last storm as well Definitely agree with this Kaner. I don't know a single meteorologist who puts any weight on the JMA or KMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not that I am comparing this to 1996 but was not the ECM the only model that locked on to its solution of an east coast blizzard at 7 days out and never wavered? I seem to recall that & the media downplaying it and calling for flurries the night before even because the GFS was the last to the bandwagon of the ECM... Model solutions from 14.5 years ago really have zero relevance to what is happening today. The model physics, initialization, assimilation, and parametrization schemes are completely different now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It was. The Friday before the event all my local forecasts were for flurries that Sunday. Obviously they were looking at only the American junk. Accu Weather and Elliot Abrams were the only ones that week talking about the possibility of a major storm. I ended up with 30" of flurries. Well if we are to learn anything from history which is the purpose of studying it so we do not repeat the past errors..then perhaps it would be more prudent to watch the ECM to see what it does before any of the other guidance...less media & others end up fooled once again..(potentially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol Seriously though, a few GFS and GEM ensemble members couldn't hurt the cause. And maybe the occasional Nogaps, UK, or Asian Connection hit. And a few inland solutions to statistically counter all the offshore misses. The UKMET is a 967 bomb that is west of its 0z run. Improvement but not there yet. The two best performing models show massive bombs and we have people in this thread pulling out the JMA KMA Nogaps and DGEX. Frankly at this stage of the game i could care less what the GFS showed and that includes if it showed a bomb of 949 off of AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the ukmet is ots... UKMET had a 966 mb Low P. sitting off of Hatteras. If that's not a bomb, I'm not sure what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 In fairness to you the 12Z GME weather model from the German Weather Service also shows a coastal hugger at hour 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well if we are to learn anything from history which is the purpose of studying it so we do not repeat the past errors..then perhaps it would be more prudent to watch the ECM to see what it does before any of the other guidance...less media & others end up fooled once again..(potentially) If the Euro blinks that would be alarming. But the fact is its last 3 runs have been huge and people want to dismiss it just because the KMA is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the gfs ens look exactly like the op Maybe even worse. And every single ensemble member from 24 hours ago looks better than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Model solutions from 14.5 years ago really have zero relevance to what is happening today. The model physics, initialization, assimilation, and parametrization schemes are completely different now. Which means what? To me that would mean that since ECM was superior back then & its still more superior that its skills on something like this should have only improved..Where as the GFS was Garbage in =Garbage out ...then it probably means its just a step up from that once again..... Go back and look at the 18 Z GFS @ 84 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06084.gif Now go back to the 12 Z @ 90 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06090.gif Now go back to 6 Z @ 96 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06096.gif Finally 00z @ 102 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif Notice the trend here on the GFS? These are all the same hours & each model run has been trending the low pressure more and more to the south and slower ..ALA AKA ..ECM....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Agreed, and the GGEM overdevelops everything anyway, so toss that too. It didn't overdevelop the last storm besides for that one fluke west run all the models had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Model solutions from 14.5 years ago really have zero relevance to what is happening today. The model physics, initialization, assimilation, and parametrization schemes are completely different now. I would think the fundamental model physics hasn't changed too much. But your point is apt and well taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the Euro blinks that would be alarming. But the fact is its last 3 runs have been huge and people want to dismiss it just because the KMA is OTS. Boy does that sound eerily familar (cough cough, last week when the Euro was our last hope and then pulled the final rug). As I said in the old thread - today's Euro run showed basically the most extreme solution possible. While the other extreme, the GFS, is also unlikely to verify. We'll see how 00z unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Proof? The GEM has a known bias to phase systems too quickly and to build up convective instability in the tropics. The latter is possibly applicable here and the latter is definitely not. Which means what? To me that would mean that since ECM was superior back then & its still more superior that its skills on something like this should have only improved..Where as the GFS was Garbage in =Garbage out ...then it probably means its just a step up from that once again..... Go back and look at the 18 Z GFS @ 84 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06084.gif Now go back to the 12 Z @ 90 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06090.gif Now go back to 6 Z @ 96 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06096.gif Finally 00z @ 102 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif Notice the trend here on the GFS? These are all the same hours & each model run has been trending the low pressure more and more to the south and slower ..ALA AKA ..ECM....... It means talking about model trends from 14.5 years ago is completely irrelevant to what is happening today, no matter which model you are talking about. You want to talk about the 2010 GFS vs. the 2010 Euro, I'm game. Talking about the 1996 version of the Euro is nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Japanese and Korean meteorologists feel the same about NCEP. I can't reveal sources, but I know a very well known tropical met who told me how easy it is to beat JMA in forecasting WPAC typhoons because they have to use follow their model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Could the mods please split off a seperate thread for discussing the 84 hour 18z Nam, Nogaps, JMA ,KMA, Hungarian, Brazilian, DGEX, Peruvian, Italian, Indian, Australian, Chinese, Mongolian, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Iraq models please. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 If the Euro blinks that would be alarming. But the fact is its last 3 runs have been huge and people want to dismiss it just because the KMA is OTS. The chance of the Euro showing a less favorable solution at 0z has to be > 90%. And the chance of it "blinking" and really changing for the worse might be at or greater than 50%. Blizzard model runs at Day 5 are so tenuous. I won't be alarmed unless all guidance moves in the wrong direction for successive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the ukmet is ots... Not entirly sure that 966 bomb is gonna exit stage right and cut ENE. If anything, it may head slightly W of due north and give many coastal areas a SECS. Wouldn't call it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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