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NYC/PHL December 24-27 Potential - Part 2


forkyfork

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Right now all we have going for us is the Euro, Euro ensembles, and a late developing GGEM.

I sooner have the Garbage Forecasting System, NOflats model and the Asian combo JMA/KMA on my side then the pathetic Euro and it's ensembles with a side GGEM :arrowhead:

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Not that I am comparing this to 1996 but was not the ECM the only model that locked on to its solution of an east coast blizzard at 7 days out and never wavered? I seem to recall that & the media downplaying it and calling for flurries the night before even because the GFS was the last to the bandwagon of the ECM...

Yeah, I think this is essentially how it played out. And there are hundreds of examples over the years. I just feel like the synoptic default is a miss to the SE, and it will take something unusual to buck this tendency.

I also don't believe the Euro has locked onto a consistent solution. But I do feel more comfortable with it than any other single model.

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Your "support" comes from non-major models. Your best shot is the GGEM ENS. The UK is sort of in the middle of things. I doubt the 967 it has would go OTS from what I read.

In fairness to you the 12Z GME weather model from the German Weather Service also shows a coastal hugger at hour 132.

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Well, definitley not encouraging to see the gfs, gfs ensembles, ukmet, ggem ensembles, kma, jma, etc show an out to sea scenario. it seems to me the euro is once again way overdone (like it was for that fluke run with the last storm) and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the euro go towards the other models tonight.

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Not that I am comparing this to 1996 but was not the ECM the only model that locked on to its solution of an east coast blizzard at 7 days out and never wavered? I seem to recall that & the media downplaying it and calling for flurries the night before even because the GFS was the last to the bandwagon of the ECM...

It was. The Friday before the event all my local forecasts were for flurries that Sunday. Obviously they were looking at only the American junk. Accu Weather and Elliot Abrams were the only ones that week talking about the possibility of a major storm. I ended up with 30" of flurries.

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Well, definitley not encouraging to see the gfs, gfs ensembles, ukmet, ggem ensembles, kma, jma, etc show an out to sea scenario. it seems to me the euro is once again way overdone (like it was for that fluke run with the last storm) and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the euro go towards the other models tonight.

It may take an exact same path as the last storm, which I hate to say because the chances of that happening to back-to-back winter storms is very unusual considering the upper air pattern change after a major storm, but two things yesterday raised red flags:

1) The overbearing 50-50 low.

and

2) I believe the 12Z GFS jumping the surface low to the northwest once it reached the coast, which has very little chance of happening.

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tmagan I'm a little surprised you used JMA and KMA to make a point, and then went as far as to call them major models. As far as I'm concerned, and I'm assuming most mets feel the same way, major models =GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/GGEM and to a degree the NAM when it gets to the shorter term or the middle of its range. That doesn't mean we should discount an OTS possibility, it is to say though that ANY DAY I'd take GGEM/ECM/UK over any other countries models. Btw KMA was awful with the last storm as well

Definitely agree with this Kaner. I don't know a single meteorologist who puts any weight on the JMA or KMA.

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Not that I am comparing this to 1996 but was not the ECM the only model that locked on to its solution of an east coast blizzard at 7 days out and never wavered? I seem to recall that & the media downplaying it and calling for flurries the night before even because the GFS was the last to the bandwagon of the ECM...

Model solutions from 14.5 years ago really have zero relevance to what is happening today. The model physics, initialization, assimilation, and parametrization schemes are completely different now.

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It was. The Friday before the event all my local forecasts were for flurries that Sunday. Obviously they were looking at only the American junk. Accu Weather and Elliot Abrams were the only ones that week talking about the possibility of a major storm. I ended up with 30" of flurries.

Well if we are to learn anything from history which is the purpose of studying it so we do not repeat the past errors..then perhaps it would be more prudent to watch the ECM to see what it does before any of the other guidance...less media & others end up fooled once again..(potentially)

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lol Seriously though, a few GFS and GEM ensemble members couldn't hurt the cause. And maybe the occasional Nogaps, UK, or Asian Connection hit. And a few inland solutions to statistically counter all the offshore misses.

The UKMET is a 967 bomb that is west of its 0z run. Improvement but not there yet. The two best performing models show massive bombs and we have people in this thread pulling out the JMA KMA Nogaps and DGEX. Frankly at this stage of the game i could care less what the GFS showed and that includes if it showed a bomb of 949 off of AC.

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Well if we are to learn anything from history which is the purpose of studying it so we do not repeat the past errors..then perhaps it would be more prudent to watch the ECM to see what it does before any of the other guidance...less media & others end up fooled once again..(potentially)

If the Euro blinks that would be alarming. But the fact is its last 3 runs have been huge and people want to dismiss it just because the KMA is OTS.

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Model solutions from 14.5 years ago really have zero relevance to what is happening today. The model physics, initialization, assimilation, and parametrization schemes are completely different now.

Which means what? To me that would mean that since ECM was superior back then & its still more superior that its skills on something like this should have only improved..Where as the GFS was Garbage in =Garbage out ...then it probably means its just a step up from that once again.....

Go back and look at the 18 Z GFS @ 84 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06084.gif

Now go back to the 12 Z @ 90 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06090.gif

Now go back to 6 Z @ 96 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06096.gif

Finally 00z @ 102 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif

Notice the trend here on the GFS? These are all the same hours & each model run has been trending the low pressure more and more to the south and slower ..ALA AKA ..ECM.......

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Model solutions from 14.5 years ago really have zero relevance to what is happening today. The model physics, initialization, assimilation, and parametrization schemes are completely different now.

I would think the fundamental model physics hasn't changed too much. But your point is apt and well taken.

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If the Euro blinks that would be alarming. But the fact is its last 3 runs have been huge and people want to dismiss it just because the KMA is OTS.

Boy does that sound eerily familar (cough cough, last week when the Euro was our last hope and then pulled the final rug).

As I said in the old thread - today's Euro run showed basically the most extreme solution possible. While the other extreme, the GFS, is also unlikely to verify. We'll see how 00z unfolds.

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Proof?

The GEM has a known bias to phase systems too quickly and to build up convective instability in the tropics. The latter is possibly applicable here and the latter is definitely not.

Which means what? To me that would mean that since ECM was superior back then & its still more superior that its skills on something like this should have only improved..Where as the GFS was Garbage in =Garbage out ...then it probably means its just a step up from that once again.....

Go back and look at the 18 Z GFS @ 84 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06084.gif

Now go back to the 12 Z @ 90 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06090.gif

Now go back to 6 Z @ 96 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06096.gif

Finally 00z @ 102 hrs

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif

Notice the trend here on the GFS? These are all the same hours & each model run has been trending the low pressure more and more to the south and slower ..ALA AKA ..ECM.......

It means talking about model trends from 14.5 years ago is completely irrelevant to what is happening today, no matter which model you are talking about. You want to talk about the 2010 GFS vs. the 2010 Euro, I'm game. Talking about the 1996 version of the Euro is nonsense.

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If the Euro blinks that would be alarming. But the fact is its last 3 runs have been huge and people want to dismiss it just because the KMA is OTS.

The chance of the Euro showing a less favorable solution at 0z has to be > 90%. And the chance of it "blinking" and really changing for the worse might be at or greater than 50%. Blizzard model runs at Day 5 are so tenuous. I won't be alarmed unless all guidance moves in the wrong direction for successive runs.

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