brettjrob Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Last Tues went from a dynamic negatively tilted trough hitting an insanely rich, moist warm sector to a VBV mess. This is going from a ragged bowling ball mess with modified continental air, to becoming something a little more. A part of it is gunshyness for sure but I think the inertia factor plays into it a bit. Very true. It's almost certainly a combination of inertia and being gunshy. Both are human biases that can be annoying in large doses. Inertia is understandable in the short range, when subtle trends appear inside 24-48 h but it's hard to abandon the general theme of the forecast. It seems like the #hypetrain gained way too much inertia 6-8 days out for last Tuesday, rendering it unstoppable even as evidence against the setup piled up for a good 3-4 days prior. A subtler version of the reverse seems to be at play for Sunday just because it looked like nothing from a week out, but I don't think it's being drastically underhyped or anything. A solid 10% hatched type setup on the dryline is what I would expect at this point, unless moisture proves to be way overforecast when we wake up Sunday morning. Man, the Euro is insistent on Monday being in play along and E of the I-35 corridor, and the GFS moved in that direction tonight. For better or worse, the Euro setup is pretty impressive for the Ouachitas and surrounding area, possibly extending into E KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2016 Author Share Posted May 6, 2016 Well the D3 barely did anything at all to upgrade from the D4, hmm. No mention of the strong LLJ or of a possible upgrade? Ok then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Well the D3 barely did anything at all to upgrade from the D4, hmm. No mention of the strong LLJ? Ok then. Looks like it also got a pretty good westward push too. Edit: More so a cutoff than a push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 The more interesting day to watch at this point is Monday. Moisture still a bit questionable on Sunday, though there will be some SVR the way it looks now. Moisture will continue returning and improving, storms Sunday could put down some boundaries. It appears that OKC, Wichita and TUL could all be in the target zone Monday. Forecast temps also in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies should provide ample destabilization. Right now the day 4 has this zone pretty far to the east, it really seems to me that this will most certainly shift back to the west some. Wish I was going to be in town to chase both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Well the D3 barely did anything at all to upgrade from the D4, hmm. No mention of the strong LLJ or of a possible upgrade? Ok then. A bit of a bizarre outlook imo... Especially considering it's from a forecaster who usually is more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 A bit of a bizarre outlook imo... Especially considering it's from a forecaster who usually is more optimistic. Still a lot of questions about the overall pattern and svr parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Still a lot of questions about the overall pattern and svr parameters. NAM still seems awfully slow with the ejection of the wave by about 3-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 12Z RAOBs from CRP and BRO are not exactly what you want to see about 60 hours from a possible event. Low 60's DPs and a very shallow, meager low-level moisture profile. welp. Even more so... At LCH they had a low/mid-50s DP, and an even shallower moisture profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 12Z RAOBs from CRP and BRO are not exactly what you want to see about 60 hours from a possible event. Low 60's DPs and a very shallow, meager low-level moisture profile. welp. Even more so... At LCH they had a low/mid-50s DP, and an even shallower moisture profile. How does that line up with what the NAM/GFS/EURO are showing at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 12Z RAOBs from CRP and BRO are not exactly what you want to see about 60 hours from a possible event. Low 60's DPs and a very shallow, meager low-level moisture profile. welp. Even more so... At LCH they had a low/mid-50s DP, and an even shallower moisture profile. Right now you should be looking at soundings further south. Based on forecast trajectories, our moisture is currently south of the Yucatan being pulled over central Mexico. At this point, I would be looking at sounding sites from Cancun to the west and southwest. Cancun is starting to modify, and likely will be modified by 0z. The ones south and west are more modified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Yeah, the chatter about the CRP/BRO/DRT soundings seems more relevant to tomorrow than Sunday. Comparing current obs with short-range guidance, I do have some concerns that there's a bias to modify the airmass down south too quickly in the wake of this week's Gulf blasting, which can be a problem when said blastings occur this late in the season. How much of an effect this would have on Sunday is hard to discern from this far out. Preliminarily, I'm really favoring the southern (OK/TX) segment of the dryline Sunday - any late-returning moisture surge will arrive there first, and the kinematics look best there anyway. CI down south isn't a sure thing, but IMO is more likely than not. A box bounded by Canadian-Childress-Frederick-Sieling seems like the best bet for a few tubes, as things stand. And now there's nearly unanimous agreement on Monday being legit along the 35 corridor eastward, with some VBV/S-shape issues again being the primary uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Yeah, the chatter about the CRP/BRO/DRT soundings seems more relevant to tomorrow than Sunday. Comparing current obs with short-range guidance, I do have some concerns that there's a bias to modify the airmass down south too quickly in the wake of this week's Gulf blasting, which can be a problem when said blastings occur this late in the season. How much of an effect this would have on Sunday is hard to discern from this far out. Preliminarily, I'm really favoring the southern (OK/TX) segment of the dryline Sunday - any late-returning moisture surge will arrive there first, and the kinematics look best there anyway. CI down south isn't a sure thing, but IMO is more likely than not. A box bounded by Canadian-Childress-Frederick-Sieling seems like the best bet for a few tubes, as things stand. And now there's nearly unanimous agreement on Monday being legit along the 35 corridor eastward, with some VBV/S-shape issues again being the primary uncertainty. Are you referring to the EURO specifically? I didn't see much low level shear from the GFS/NAM for Monday. Sunday has some serious potential for a few tubes in the box that you mentioned as long as the moisture can get there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Are you referring to the EURO specifically? I didn't see much low level shear from the GFS/NAM for Monday. Sunday has some serious potential for a few tubes in the box that you mentioned as long as the moisture can get there in time. SRH isn't overly impressive on the GFS/NAM, but I suspect sfc winds may be somewhat more backed than progged, which would help considerably. I should probably clarify that by "legit" I basically just mean there's a likelihood for supercells with some tornado threat, where a few days ago it looked like a non-event Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2016 Author Share Posted May 6, 2016 SRH isn't overly impressive on the GFS/NAM, but I suspect sfc winds may be somewhat more backed than progged, which would help considerably. I should probably clarify that by "legit" I basically just mean there's a likelihood for supercells with some tornado threat, where a few days ago it looked like a non-event Monday. Meanwhile, the morning OUN AFD (despite them obviously being in a high impact/etc. area) really missed the boat when it comes to Sunday. Low tornado potential? The 12z GFS and NAM certainly argue against that and potentially nocturnal too. It's not like we are dealing with neutral height falls either here where initiation is really question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Meanwhile, the morning OUN AFD (despite them obviously being in a high impact/etc. area) really missed the boat when it comes to Sunday. Low tornado potential? The 12z GFS and NAM certainly argue against that and potentially nocturnal too. It's not like we are dealing with neutral height falls either here where initiation is really question. I saw that. 12z GFS and NAM show some favorable environments. I suppose moisture is holding forecasters back, but the generally conservative GFS is forecasting mid 60s into central OK. The wind profiles look pretty good, even on the GFS. Wouldn't be surprised if there were localized areas of backing at 850 hpa given forecast pattern. Think threat level will slowly increase as we approach 0 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 12Z GFS is incredible for west-central OK at 7pm Sunday... Some subtle VBV above 500mb, but just wow. 2000J/KG MLCAPE, 0-1KM SHR/SRH of 30kt/300-350m2/s2, 0-3KM SHR/SRH of 50kt/400-450m2/s2, 60-70kt 0-6KM Shear... pretty quality moisture too low-mid 60s dews, ML-LCL <1000m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I saw that. 12z GFS and NAM show some favorable environments. I suppose moisture is holding forecasters back, but the generally conservative GFS is forecasting mid 60s into central OK. The wind profiles look pretty good, even on the GFS. Wouldn't be surprised if there were localized areas of backing at 850 hpa given forecast pattern. Think threat level will slowly increase as we approach 0 hour. I am a little surprised this isn't already an enhanced risk outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I am a little surprised this isn't already an enhanced risk outlook. If I had to guess they're reluctant to pull the trigger on anything higher than slight right now until confidence is high closer to the event after the PDS watch bust this year, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I am a little surprised this isn't already an enhanced risk outlook. I can't say I am. Still uncertainties with this setup. We're still like 3 days out. Probs will go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Dang. The 4km NAM says mesocyclone tracks may point towards me. I don't know if I want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 Dang. The 4km NAM says mesocyclone tracks may point towards me. I don't know if I want that. I'm in Fort Collins too, and this one made me squirm a bit ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2016 Author Share Posted May 6, 2016 This may be a bit problematic though, especially for tomorrow: https://twitter.com/TornadoTitans/status/728661918299258880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 This may be a bit problematic though, especially for tomorrow: https://twitter.com/TornadoTitans/status/728661918299258880 exactly... CRP/ADN/LCH (which generally are on the main trajectory for this event) are terrible too. KCUN though, is much better, but there is also limited time for that modified tropical airmass to advect poleward, definitely will not be in place by tomorrow, Sunday is questionable with northward extent, Monday however will have no moisture quality issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 This may be a bit problematic though, especially for tomorrow: https://twitter.com/TornadoTitans/status/728661918299258880 I believe we were dealing with the same issue for the 4/15/16 setup which produced some very photogenic tornadoes in the CO/OK area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20160415 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I'm somewhat skeptical of the moisture concerns especially into OK. Return flow should rapidly amplify tonight into tomorrow. Additionally, satellite mesoanalysis and sfc analysis suggests return flow and modification may be beginning now on the western fringes of the Gulf. Also can't say Monday looks any good. Significant changes to the forecast would be needed to change my mind. Additionally I have a final from 4:30-6:30 so it's not an option for me unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 I'm somewhat skeptical of the moisture concerns especially into OK. Return flow should rapidly amplify tonight into tomorrow. Additionally, satellite mesoanalysis and sfc analysis suggest return flow and modification is beginning now on the western fringes of the Gulf. Also can't say Monday looks any good. Significant changes to the forecast would be needed to change my mind. Additionally I have a final from 4:30-6:30 so it's not an option for me unfortunately. why is Monday no good in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2016 Author Share Posted May 6, 2016 I'm somewhat skeptical of the moisture concerns especially into OK. Return flow should rapidly amplify tonight into tomorrow. Additionally, satellite mesoanalysis and sfc analysis suggest return flow and modification is beginning now on the western fringes of the Gulf. Also can't say Monday looks any good. Significant changes to the forecast would be needed to change my mind. Additionally I have a final from 4:30-6:30 so it's not an option for me unfortunately. I guess I should probably remember my own advice -> i.e. it's a lot easier to recover after a frontal intrusion in May than March. I thought Monday looked pretty decent on the 00z/12z Euro runs, with that secondary shortwave rotating through the base of the trough and reamplifying the LLJ (and again strongly backed surface winds E of the dryline). Going to be a question of timing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 OUN wording from this afternoon's AFD is very "garden variety" which is a little strange. Hardly a mention of tornadoes. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSSWESTERN OK SOUTH INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL THENMOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUN EVENING. BEST INSTABILITYWILL BE CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTN AND THE INITIALSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA SUN EVENINGTHEY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY BUT THE SHEAR WILLINCREASE. ALTHOUGH STORM MODE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN... IF ALINE OR LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING... AN INCREASEIN THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LEADING EDGECIRCULATIONS THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOESMAY OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2016 Author Share Posted May 6, 2016 So we're inside 3 days out now and that is what we get from OUN? I am not getting this line of thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 6, 2016 Share Posted May 6, 2016 So we're inside 3 days out now and that is what we get from OUN? I am not getting this line of thinking... And the 18z NAM is nothing to scoff at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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