jojo762 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Looked like a step toward the GFS to me...has precip through central Oklahoma thru 21z. Would likely mitigate substantial destabilization. Also lost the off the charts sigtor values. Still has some very high values but not as ridiculous as the past several runs. it still has them.. Just not as widespread. We do not need ridiculous sig-Tor values to see a high-end tornado threat, anything above 5 to me is just whipped cream (not needed but just makes it better). Anyways, I'd side more with the GFS solution just with how early the trough ejects-- even if morning convection exits fairly early, more junk storms are just going to develop. On one of the above posts though, someone did mention hodographs being messy, and I'd have to disagree on that. Really what the hodographs in SC/C/SW OK for any given location are going to look like will come down to the presence or absence of downstream convection, as well as how far north the WF makes it. As you'll notice, the NAM shows all those things having a lesser effect on the hodos, and shows incredibly favorable hodographs, while the GFS has a more obvious detrimental effect from convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 On the note of TVN going down, which absolutely sucks, StormViewLive is up and coming. Although they use the SS feed for video and is quite Flash heavy there are specific chats for some of the bigger chasers and they are working on some of the others. Something for everyone that lost TVN for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 On the note of TVN going down, which absolutely sucks, StormViewLive is up and coming. Although they use the SS feed for video and is quite Flash heavy there are specific chats for some of the bigger chasers and they are working on some of the others. Something for everyone that lost TVN for now. It completely ruined my day. TVN is what really got me into severe weather outbreaks. I remember watching the Pilger tornadoes form live on TVN. It was the coolest thing I've seen in weather, I didn't even realize it was possible to great such strong incredible tornadoes so close together like that. I really hope they are able to replace that quality with another website...I left home early to watch TVN on Tuesday. I would definitely donate to help their servers have greater capabilities. No other website was even close to the quality of TVN. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Got a nice cell on Kelley's stream http://www.severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Looks like the RAP starts clearing things up by 10am....model only going out to noon at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Looks like the RAP starts clearing things up by 10am....model only going out to noon at this point. Develops a significant dryline bulge into NC TX. Hmm... Wait and see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Develops a significant dryline bulge into NC TX. Hmm... Wait and see... Looks like the WRF models are blowing up a supercell from just SW of moore/norman to somewhere over OKC...weird part is no one is really talking about tomorrow and it has a lot more potential than Tuesday did. It's highly conditional but there will be shear, and possibly CAPE if convection is out by noon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capbreak Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 weird part is no one is really talking about tomorrow and it has a lot more potential than Tuesday did. It's highly conditional but there will be shear, and possibly CAPE if convection is out by noon... Tuesday was the first big setup of the year, and potentially the biggest in the plains since 2013, and looked amazing up until 2-3 days before hand. Friday has several things going against it, which have been discussed here over the last few pages. Personally, after prepping several days for Tuesday and blowing off Wednesday and feeling like an idiot for not seeing the obvious potential in 55 dews and 500 MLCAPE, I'm out of energy and ready for the next big system. Highly conditional for a 14 hour drive after a big bust doesn't cut it for me, and perhaps many others that aren't on chasecation/somewhat local. Just my $.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Tuesday was the first big setup of the year, and potentially the biggest in the plains since 2013, and looked amazing up until 2-3 days before hand. Friday has several things going against it, which have been discussed here over the last few pages. Personally, after prepping several days for Tuesday and blowing off Wednesday and feeling like an idiot for not seeing the obvious potential in 55 dews and 500 MLCAPE, I'm out of energy and ready for the next big system. Highly conditional for a 14 hour drive after a big bust doesn't cut it for me, and perhaps many others that aren't on chasecation/somewhat local. Just my $.02. NO way I'd make a 14hr drive for tomorrow...wayy too conditional, probably won't pan out. I'm 2hrs from the city so its a big different for me. Tuesday hit the bells a week out, and still looked good 5 days out, then it all went to crap...that happens. Next big system isn't really in sight which is somewhat disappointing. I'm out of town for 3 or more days for each of the next 4 weeks after next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Looks like the WRF models are blowing up a supercell from just SW of moore/norman to somewhere over OKC...weird part is no one is really talking about tomorrow and it has a lot more potential than Tuesday did. It's highly conditional but there will be shear, and possibly CAPE if convection is out by noon... Everybody is just trying to keep quite and not hype it up too much just to have it be a disappointment. Plus, tomorrow's threat area is significantly smaller than Tuesday's was. It is highly conditional though. Even with the GFS solution, you still get 1500-2000+J/KG MUCAPE over C/SC OK at 00z with 50-60kt deep-layer shear, main differences in my mind between the GFS/both NAMs are: 1. The strength and orientation of the low-level wind field near that bullseye area in SW/SC/C OK, and 2. The degree of atmospheric recovery/ how long convection lingers. All the models indicate significant BL moisture in that area I mentioned with upper 60's-low 70's DPs on the 18Z runs... Something to consider is that previous convection will leave both a vorticity-rich environment, and several OFBs--should precip last well into the afternoon this is irrelevant. If we get any kind of decent atmospheric recovery and insolation we will likely have pretty good 0-3KM CAPE (also ML/MUCAPE), along with low LCLs, which when combined with a vorticity-rich environment and locally enhanced low-level shear due to OFBs creates an interesting situation with tornadoes being probable with any discrete storm. IF you believe the NAM's depiction of the low-level wind fields in both strength and orientation across the aforementioned area, we could have a threat that encompasses a larger area, more than just along leftover OFBs. Just some of my thoughts on the possibilities if convection does not linger well into the afternoon and just wash it out. Which knowing how things have worked the last few years, it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Looks like the WRF models are blowing up a supercell from just SW of moore/norman to somewhere over OKC...weird part is no one is really talking about tomorrow and it has a lot more potential than Tuesday did. It's highly conditional but there will be shear, and possibly CAPE if convection is out by noon... I think the reason most are not talking right now was the hype from Tuesdays system. Also, I think most are doing the wait and see approach to this Fridays event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 I think the reason most are not talking right now was the hype from Tuesdays system. Also, I think most are doing the wait and see approach to this Fridays event. The reason I'm not really too enthused is because we saw this same song and dance with enhanced ST jet influence and its added ascent last spring and it resulted in a lesser threat pretty much every time due to an overabundance of leftover convection. There is really nothing on the models to indicate that won't happen this time as well barring a significantly stronger cap than currently advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 00Z NAM pushing some of the parameters further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 0z nam significantly decreases overall tor potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Most likely a result of not moving the warm front as far north, lessening the overlap of potent cape and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Even if everything does go perfect for the afternoon/evening round of storms to flourish... The area of highest potential is going to be pretty small. Good for any chasers who might go out tomorrow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Most likely a result of not moving the warm front as far north, lessening the overlap of potent cape and shear. Correct, it keeps the WF significantly further south. Probably a good thing for OKC, you never know what May and early June have in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 This next system promises to have some of the best elements from 2013, 2015, and 2016 - the crashing cold front after dark, morning junkvection, and VBV. I gotta say, that's actually pretty impressive how it combined everything bad we've seen the past few years into one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 This next system promises to have some of the best elements from 2013, 2015, and 2016 - the crashing cold front after dark, morning junkvection, and VBV. I gotta say, that's actually pretty impressive how it combined everything bad we've seen the past few years into one. VBV won't be an issue really with this...Have not seen it on much of the forecast soundings at 00Z from the 00Z NAM/GFS/4KNAM. 21Z SREF showed some over SW OK at 00z, but not C OK. It is conceivable that there could be VBV issues if the warm front makes it further north than currently anticipated, or if the dryline is further west than progged. Start to see a hint of VBV on a few soundings at 03Z in C OK but by that time i'd expect any tornado threat-- if there even is one-- to be winding down/ shifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Well the 00z GFS certainly doesn't look too bad tomorrow compared to previous runs, with more destabilization occurring and also cleaner wind profiles without much VBV at all (if any). The storms will be flying tomorrow though, with that 70+ kt mid level jet basically plowing right over top of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 With that said, ARW and EMC WRF don't look promising at all with a large MCS rolling right through the favoured zone tomorrow morning, which would surely kill any potential. Edit: And neither do any of the other CAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 With that said, ARW and EMC WRF don't look promising at all with a large MCS rolling right through the favoured zone tomorrow morning, which would surely kill any potential. Edit: And neither do any of the other CAMs. I wouldn't say it "kills" it, if the MCS exits quick enough... Maybe for OK it would end any potential... Regardless, the Warm front will still setup somewhere, and wherever that is will probably have a nice environment in place. Guess we'll see what SPC thinks soon. Most recent iterations of the HRRR and RAP show something different, along with the 4K NAM and 12NAM to a degree. HRRR however shows a lot of convection building up in NE TX, possibly moving into OK, still waiting for it to get in range. Pretty complicated forecast at this point. Going to have to wait until about 16Z to figure out exactly what effects convection is going to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Went ENH for large hail... And gave a 10% TOR prob in the arklatex region essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 We have an ENH risk for tomorrow- hail 30% and tornado 10% near the Red River. Also Tornado 5% and wind 15% also for a large portion (covering most of what you saw on the 1730z outlook) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Current radar appears that the storms are attempting to lift out of SE OK/NE TX, but there seems to be a bit of back building. Nonetheless if that does get out there would be plenty of recovery time for the environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 It almost seems as if convective coverage was grossly over forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 It almost seems as if convective coverage was grossly over forecast. Yup just looking at the radar now, there's garbage in the TX panhandle along with a lone supercell over there too, then the stuff in OK is off to the east already, so unless something can develop this morning we mightj be able to get the crapvection out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Yup just looking at the radar now, there's garbage in the TX panhandle along with a lone supercell over there too, then the stuff in OK is off to the east already, so unless something can develop this morning we mightj be able to get the crapvection out of the way. It's pretty early, we could easily see some redevelopment. If we don't then in my mind it becomes a function of how far north can the WF make it before the short wave fires up storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 It almost seems as if convective coverage was grossly over forecast. well there is not a huge eastward moving MCS as of now... Going to have wait to wait until 16-17Z to figure out if there's any more development as well as what effects the current and any new crapvection will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 11Z HRRR shows two significant UH tracks in SW OK one of which tracks from near Frederick to northeast of OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.