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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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The new Euro seasonal is out, doesn't sound like it's changed much from last month.

 

Also out is the new NMME seasonal:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

 

 

Near Normal temps:

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

Above normal precip:

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png

 

 

Month by month:

 

December: Slightly above normal temp wise, with above normal precip.

January: Below normal temps, and slightly to above normal precip.

February: Normal temps, with normal to below normal precip.

 

The individual models in the ensemble are divided again, with the NASA being the coldest and CFS v2 the warmest.

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The new Euro seasonal is out, doesn't sound like it's changed much from last month.

Also out is the new NMME seasonal:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

Near Normal temps:

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

Above normal precip:

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1.png

Month by month:

December: Slightly above normal temp wise, with above normal precip.

January: Below normal temps, and slightly to above normal precip.

February: Normal temps, with normal to below normal precip.

The individual models in the ensemble are divided again, with the NASA being the coldest and CFS v2 the warmest.

Thank you for keeping us updated!

First official freeze in my area on tap for tonight. 12 or 13 days late but glad the growing season is over. TSA AFD has Fayetteville at 31 tonight. With dews in the mid 20s I'm pretty sure I can get down around 28 for my area. Going to be beautiful and cold in the morning.

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Nov UKMET seasonal is out:

 

At 500 MB, compared to last month, the higher heights are farther north over Canada, the southern stream is a bit farther NW and the Aleutian low is a hair bit farther west.

 

2cat_20151101_z500_months24_north_americ

 

 

Temp wise, the cooler temps have moved farther north than they were shown last month:

 

2cat_20151101_temp2m_months24_north_amer

 

The below normal area of precip still remains but it has gotten smaller. 

 

2cat_20151101_prec_months24_north_americ

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Nov UKMET seasonal is out:

At 500 MB, compared to last month, the higher heights are farther north over Canada, the southern stream is a bit farther NW and the Aleutian low is a hair bit farther west.

2cat_20151101_z500_months24_north_americ

Temp wise, the cooler temps have moved farther north than they were shown last month:

2cat_20151101_temp2m_months24_north_amer

The below normal area of precip still remains but it has gotten smaller.

2cat_20151101_prec_months24_north_americ

As long as the dry spot there means less precip because it fell as snow, I'll be just fine with it. That's a darn good set of maps if you ask me.

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It's getting to that time of year again, Hello everyone! Hope everybody had a nice summer! Looking forward to seeing what happens this winter season as a lot of mets are predicting above average snowfalls for the region!!

What's up Whiteout? Good to hear from u again. U still in the fayetteville area?

As long as the dry spot there means less precip because it fell as snow, I'll be just fine with it. That's a darn good set of maps if you ask me.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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It's getting to that time of year again, Hello everyone! Hope everybody had a nice summer! Looking forward to seeing what happens this winter season as a lot of mets are predicting above average snowfalls for the region!!

Hey man! Welcome back! Yeah, in a year where there is considerable differences in the 'why' and the 'how' amongst forecasters, a very common theme is having us at above average. I hope that's a good sign and that it doesn't ginx us. I'm pretty excited this year.

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Euro Weeklies:

 

The Weeklies go through Dec 10th today. Looks like we are generally staying with the storminess over the west and southwest with an occasional storm system probably passing to our south, or perhaps to our west. Looks to remain generally stormy around and north of Alaska, which will keep the +AO. The control run looked really active. 

 

+AO looks to remain through the period with the PNA around neutral. 

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What's up Whiteout? Good to hear from u again. U still in the fayetteville area?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

Glad to see you around also man! Yep still here in Fayetteville.

 

Hey man! Welcome back! Yeah, in a year where there is considerable differences in the 'why' and the 'how' amongst forecasters, a very common theme is having us at above average. I hope that's a good sign and that it doesn't ginx us. I'm pretty excited this year.

Thanks, I hope this season is better than lasts lol....last year was a dud! Well it was an average dud. Heres to hoping we all do better this season like mets are thinking :)

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Hi everyone! It's great to see more activity on the board. Having the first frost this week has made it start to feel like we're just down the road from the fun stuff.

Seems like the pre game hype is down a bit this year compared to the last few. I hope that's a good sign. From the posts so far it sounds like things are favorable. Now let's just make it happen!!!

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Hi everyone! It's great to see more activity on the board. Having the first frost this week has made it start to feel like we're just down the road from the fun stuff.

Seems like the pre game hype is down a bit this year compared to the last few. I hope that's a good sign. From the posts so far it sounds like things are favorable. Now let's just make it happen!!!

Welcome back!

True. I think we're all just entering this round with a little more cautious optimism than last year.

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My biggest worry at this point is that it ends up being a -PNA type of winter where all the storm systems stay to our west, or go right over us leaving the western part of Kansas/Oklahoma in the snow but places farther east just get rain. It shouldn't end up being that way, but I'm more worried about that than temps. 

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I've definitely looked at that as a possible problem but agree that the likelihood of it actually happening is quite low.

Meanwhile, did you see day 8 of the 12z Euro teasing you guys in MO with a spot of snow? I hadn't gotten to check it until now.

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I've definitely looked at that as a possible problem but agree that the likelihood of it actually happening is quite low.

Meanwhile, did you see day 8 of the 12z Euro teasing you guys in MO with a spot of snow? I hadn't gotten to check it until now.

 

Yeah, too bad it'll never happen. We've been doing well on fantasyland model snow this year, lol

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I know, but we're getting there. Slowly but surely.

 

Yeah, I hope so. Gotta have at least some snow in December before Christmas to get the Christmas spirit going. Hope it works out, although I have my doubts. At some point, all the storminess at the pole has to give way, I just hope it's sooner rather than later. We can still get enough cold air if we get ridging across Canada and an active southern stream to give us some snow, just have to hope the storm systems pass to our south and are strong enough, and we'd be in business. 

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Yeah, I hope so. Gotta have at least some snow in December before Christmas to get the Christmas spirit going. Hope it works out, although I have my doubts. At some point, all the storminess at the pole has to give way, I just hope it's sooner rather than later. We can still get enough cold air if we get ridging across Canada and an active southern stream to give us some snow, just have to hope the storm systems pass to our south and are strong enough, and we'd be in business.

If I saw things correctly, the ridging over at least eastern Canada is already possible by early December, correct?

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If I saw things correctly, the ridging over at least eastern Canada is already possible by early December, correct?

 

There's been a persistent ridge in the east showing up, yeah. The models aren't as into the ridge across Canada in the evening/overnight model runs today as they have been. It would look something like this though. There's generally low heights near the pole which is the +AO. That's going to keep the Arctic air bottled up. The ridging in Canada will lead to the jet undercutting it, and you get troughs/storm systems cutting across the US. There's no Arctic air feeding into these storms, so they will have to use whatever available cold air there is around. 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_46.png

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Euro Weeklies:

 

As we head into late Nov, we see a continuation of the storminess across the west and southwestern US,  occasionally a storm system moves across the Plains, or across the south. The ridging across Canada and the continued presence of the storminess in the Arctic making the +AO. As we head into Mid-Dec, things might change, with more storminess being shown across Alaska and the GoA. Control run is a lot more interesting showing many big storm systems rolling out of the SW across the Plains.  

 

Looks like generally a +AO through mid-Dec with a PNA generally rising to around Neutral by the end of the month and then staying around that.

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Euro Weeklies:

As we head into late Nov, we see a continuation of the storminess across the west and southwestern US, occasionally a storm system moves across the Plains, or across the south. The ridging across Canada and the continued presence of the storminess in the Arctic making the +AO. As we head into Mid-Dec, things might change, with more storminess being shown across Alaska and the GoA. Control run is a lot more interesting showing many big storm systems rolling out of the SW across the Plains.

Looks like generally a +AO through mid-Dec with a PNA generally rising to around Neutral by the end of the month and then staying around that.

Throw in a well timed epo crash or 2 and we could still be in good shape until the AO tanks.

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Throw in a well timed epo crash or 2 and we could still be in good shape until the AO tanks.

 

Indeed, there's a -EPO now showing up pretty strongly on the Euro. The Euro may be too far west though with the cold as it tends to hang things back too far west. Thanksgiving week might get interesting. 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

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Indeed, there's a -EPO now showing up pretty strongly on the Euro. The Euro may be too far west though with the cold as it tends to hang things back too far west. Thanksgiving week might get interesting.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

I'm kinda leaning that way as well. I'm looking for a much deeper trough than what the Euro has at this time and that would definitely make things much more interesting down here.

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