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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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Both the JAMSTEC and JMA came out today. There were notable eastward shifts in the models of the ENSO SST's and of the SST's in the GoA, which indicates a farther eastward Aleutian low position. This is closer to the CFS v2, but it's still farther east.

 

JAMSTEC temps:

 

Still colder than normal here, but not as cold as last months run.

 

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

 

 

JAMSTEC precip:

 

Precip looks around normal to slightly above, this shifted east a bit compared to last month.

 

tprep.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif

 

 

JMA's 500 MB low position shifted slightly farther east. Still showing the southern US as wet.

 

Y201510.D0800_gl0.png

 

 

Temps cool across the south where the STJ cuts across bringing storms:

 

Y201510.D0800_gl2.png

 

Nov looks to be around normal on the JMA, Dec looks to be around normal temp wise but might be pretty stormy, especially south, and January looks like normal temps and stormy as well, especially south. 

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Change on the Euro weeklies.. Much more storminess up in the GoA during the last week of October into the first week of November. Still storminess NW of Alaska as we go into mid-Nov with storminess increasing across CA into the SW.  

 

Control run has kind of a stable pattern at the end of Oct into Nov with storms diving down from the GoA into the SW, and other storms moving into western Canada. 

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Jomo, do you pay attention to snow cover in Eurasia? They say it's important. When does Euro sips come out?

 

I don't have access to Eurosips and it already came out today. Looks the same as last month but a bit farther west with the Aleutian low and warmer in Canada based on what I read.

 

And if you're referring to the SAI or whatever it's called now, not a whole lot as it didn't really work out last year and he chased a Stratospheric warming event that never really materialized for months.

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

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May have to watch out for some severe weather on Friday/Saturday. Cooler/Colder temps showing up on the Euro in the medium to long range due to a southern system.

Euro Weeklies:

The weeklies are looking interesting as we head into mid-November. The GoA starts off pretty active as we head into November, but that calms down as we head into mid-Nov with the lowest anomalies actually north to northwest of Alaska and signs that some higher heights may end up in the GoA. NW troughing starts showing up again around Nov 9th, and this progresses into the west and southwest and eventually into the Southern Plains and east... all before Nov 20th. 

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Yeah, the control has more of a huge western trough and -PNA look, which is different from the weekly ensembles. So it's of course up in the air. The CFS v2 has been leaning more towards the western trough idea as well in Nov.

The more interesting thing here is that this nino continues to buck standard nino climo trends left and right. That in and of itself is worth something. You think the upcoming pattern with the -pna could/should help shove the Aleutian low back up where it belongs?

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Also liking the typhoon activity upcoming. Good or bad, should shuffle some things around going into November. Should be fun to watch. Glad to see what I'm seeing overall though. Got to get a -AO in there sometime. Just my opinion on that

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The more interesting thing here is that this nino continues to buck standard nino climo trends left and right. That in and of itself is worth something. You think the upcoming pattern with the -pna could/should help shove the Aleutian low back up where it belongs?

 

No idea.  For Nov, out of all the strong El-Nino's 1997 had an above normal western US and below normal eastern 2/3rds of the nation. 1982 had a cold NW 1/2 of the US and a warm east. 1972 was generally chilly everywhere, coldest across the southern plains. 1965 baked much of the US minus the extreme northeast and extreme northern Plains. 1957 was cool in the west and southwest out into the Plains into the Great Lakes.... so in 3 of the 5 cases, the western US was below normal in Nov, not that uncommon.

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No idea. For Nov, out of all the strong El-Nino's 1997 had an above normal western US and below normal eastern 2/3rds of the nation. 1982 had a cold NW 1/2 of the US and a warm east. 1972 was generally chilly everywhere, coldest across the southern plains. 1965 baked much of the US minus the extreme northeast and extreme northern Plains. 1957 was cool in the west and southwest out into the Plains into the Great Lakes.... so in 3 of the 5 cases, the western US was below normal in Nov, not that uncommon.

I stand corrected. Lol. Good post.

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December '97 featured near normal temps around here, above normal across the northern US. '82 was warm/very warm east of the Rockies, '72 was chilly/cold across the central and west US. '65 was like a furnace across the Plains, west coast was chilly and '57 was warm across much of the nation. So out of the 5, '72 was the only cold December besides the near normal '97.

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December '97 featured near normal temps around here, above normal across the northern US. '82 was warm/very warm east of the Rockies, '72 was chilly/cold across the central and west US. '65 was like a furnace across the Plains, west coast was chilly and '57 was warm across much of the nation. So out of the 5, '72 was the only cold December besides the near normal '97.

Thanks for the info. Good post there also! What do you make of the widespread -2.5c 850 anomalies Euro is forecasting through November 20th? Good signal or nothing to get excited about?

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Thanks for the info. Good post there also! What do you make of the widespread -2.5c 850 anomalies Euro is forecasting through November 20th? Good signal or nothing to get excited about?

 

It could go either way, but it was much nicer to look at than ++++ anomalies  :)

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The typhoon(s) re-curving might make things a little more interesting though. If they do occur, then you'd probably see another central/eastern trough and blast of cold air by the end of Oct or early Nov.  00z GFS going bonkers with a 926 mb low.

 

gfs_mslpa_namer_27.png

 

The SST analog that fits closest to the current SST's is last year. Only everything is much much warmer this year. 1997 would probably come in a distant second as far as the Pacific is concerned but the Atlantic was pretty much the exact opposite of this year.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Edit: 00z Euro has the cold shot coming down around Oct 28th.

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The typhoon(s) re-curving might make things a little more interesting though. If they do occur, then you'd probably see another central/eastern trough and blast of cold air by the end of Oct or early Nov. 00z GFS going bonkers with a 926 mb low.

gfs_mslpa_namer_27.png

The SST analog that fits closest to the current SST's is last year. Only everything is much much warmer this year. 1997 would probably come in a distant second as far as the Pacific is concerned but the Atlantic was pretty much the exact opposite of this year.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Edit: 00z Euro has the cold shot coming down around Oct 28th.

Cool. Would guess those cold 850s are most likely related to that. November doesn't look warm down here by any stretch. I like the low cutting underneath as well.

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