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Quincy

June 18th-21st Severe Events

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Previously the tornado warned storm...  :stun: And the other storm moving SEWD toward RAP is producing 70mph/2.75in hail, definitely warrants a PDS watch...

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHWESTERN HAAKON...SOUTHEASTERN MEADE
AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1015 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR QUINN...OR 18
MILES WEST OF PHILIP...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND THREE INCH HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES AND BUSINESSES
WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE. EXPECT
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.

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Multiple 80-90+ mph wind reports coming out of that line in SD over the past few hours. Bow has really accelerated with an impressive rear inflow jet coming in behind and a well developed WAA wing.

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We chased a beautiful isolated supercell through the Oglala National Grassland yesterday, starting near Lusk, WY, and going through South Dakota into Chadron, NE as it dove southeast at 30-60mph.

 

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A tornado watch has been issued for North Dakota and western Montana. CAPE values are up to 3000 J/kg with effective shear values at 60 kt at the center of the tornado watch.

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Beast...

 

delayed tornado report from the "beast",

0257z, 6mi northwest of Hereford, SD

 

   

--

 

STORM SURVEY CONCLUDED AN EF-2 TORNADO WITH 115-120MPH WINDS TOUCHED DOWN 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HEREFORD AT 857PM MDT AND STAYED ON THE GROUND UNTIL 930PM MDT 5 MILES SO

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Two different torn-warned storms with reported funnel clouds between Mott ND and Bison SD. Both storms are pretty far from any radar.

 

torn-warned storm west of Bismarck, ND, with a strong rotation signature near I-94. 30 miles west of Bismarck.

 

2015_06_22_0103z_KBIS_tornwarn.png

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Awesome chase day on 6/21/2015. Started the day in Chadron, NE and we drove up to Bowman, ND. From there we jumped on a right-moving supercell towards Baker, MT. The storm dove southeast and took as back through ND and into SD, where it started to rotate wildly and we saw three tornadoes near the Lodgepole, SD area. After a close encounter with a developing funnel developing directly overhead, we played with the core and the back end of the storm, watching a few more funnels develop. As it got dark, we stopped to take lightning and structure shots and drove 75 miles to our hotel in Mobridge, SD.

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Today's tornado risk may in fact extend a bit further southwest than one would surmise from the SPC maps. A sharp cold front is forming across north central KS into southeast NE and I would expect some discrete supercells to form in northeast KS this afternoon. Looking at the risk maps, they are quite bullish on Michigan which may suffer from limited daytime heating in the soupy mess ahead of the wave in the western GL region, and the risk is shown as almost zero west of St Joseph MO but in fact I believe the strongest tornadic storms may form in KS and will lead to a "mdt risk" type result in KS, s IA and n MO, possibly just clipping southeast Nebraska around Falls City. Lots of moisture in the hot air mass over eastern KS thanks to advection from rain-soaked OK and n TX.

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Today's tornado risk may in fact extend a bit further southwest than one would surmise from the SPC maps. A sharp cold front is forming across north central KS into southeast NE and I would expect some discrete supercells to form in northeast KS this afternoon. Looking at the risk maps, they are quite bullish on Michigan which may suffer from limited daytime heating in the soupy mess ahead of the wave in the western GL region, and the risk is shown as almost zero west of St Joseph MO but in fact I believe the strongest tornadic storms may form in KS and will lead to a "mdt risk" type result in KS, s IA and n MO, possibly just clipping southeast Nebraska around Falls City. Lots of moisture in the hot air mass over eastern KS thanks to advection from rain-soaked OK and n TX.

 

What? There's an EML plume with 12-14˚C temps at 700 mb capping this area off and near surface flow is going to become more veered with time, plus the main upper trough is outrunning this area. There is zilch to suggest this type of threat in this area.

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...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE SD...FAR

NE NEB AND MUCH OF IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS

ESEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN

PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN

PLAINS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A

TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE

POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG

TORNADO AND HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES COULD ALSO DEVELOP

ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA...FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST

NEBRASKA.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE

NRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD

ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO IA AND

SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET

IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY WHERE ELEVATED

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS

FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM

NRN MO NWD INTO SRN IA AND WRN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR AT

MID-LEVELS SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM

FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB WHERE 700 MB TEMPS

SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE +12C. FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE

AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME UNCAPPED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH

CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM FAR SE SD AND SRN MN SEWD ALONG THE WARM

FRONT INTO PARTS OF IA AND NRN IL.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/THURSDAY AT DES MOINES IA SHOW AN

IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF

50-55 KT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. THIS

SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND CELLS THAT

CAN BECOME DOMINANT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAILSTONES OF GREATER

THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LOOPED WITH

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 450 TO 550 M2/S2 SUGGESTING A

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A STRONG TORNADO. TORNADOES WILL BE MOST

LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN TURN RIGHT AND PARALLEL THE WARM

FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CELLS THAT

DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY

SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING

LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. IF AN

MCS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...THEN A THREAT

FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL COULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE

EVENING.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE MODERATE

INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN

ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD SHOW STRONG

DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS

COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.

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