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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Captmorg70

Captmorg70

Posted
Posted

Cool, looking at the latest run and it matches up with my thinking that we could see more snow than people are expecting.

yea it really had some heavy snow switch over on that run. Though that'd be a mess with sleet underneath. I'm interested what the 0z looks like and if that is a late trend
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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Wow, SHV basically says this is a non-event up here. They even took frozen precip out of my forecast. Guess they love the NAM, though even that is close to a big event. 18Z GFS and RGEM show Winter Storm Warning criteria being met within 36 hours.

I haven't had a chance to read the FWD AFD but it looks like they are leaning towards the conservative side for frozen qpf (always a safe bet in my area!)

ETA: AFD explains it nicely

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Wow, SHV basically says this is a non-event up here. They even took frozen precip out of my forecast. Guess they love the NAM, though even that is close to a big event. 18Z GFS and RGEM show Winter Storm Warning criteria being met within 36 hours.

If trends hold, look for an advisory to be issued tomorrow morning. I'm not sure who is the forecaster on duty during the afternoon or evenings this week but this person has called this a non event all week. Literally, keeps taking mention of frozen out of the forecast, only for the morning crew to reinsert. Very interesting battle going on in that office.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

We busted way low today, not sure we even hit 50 up at my house.

 

yeah... didn't even touch 60 here in FTW... busted way way way low.. CBS 11 or Dan Henry not sure which one mentioned scattered power outages possible tomorrow night if the winds gusty... that could make this one the biggest overall impact yet alla last winter where large chunks of Dallas was without power for a day or 2 if I recall

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

0Z has continued trending wetter and further SE as it has with all recent storms. NE Texas is in line for a major winter storm.

didn't see 0z yet. But I guess it gonna miss dfw if it trends too much SE. But would put your area and longview in play
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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

0Z has continued trending wetter and further SE as it has with all recent storms. NE Texas is in line for a major winter storm.

 

Yea, NAM has been trending hard the last 30 hrs or so.  It was obviously too far north but I'm surprised it has trended this much.  Also, the 21z SREF has really started to crank up the snow totals across N. Texas (it has been decent these past few systems with its depiction of p type). 

 

ETA: 00z NAM has 0.50"+ of qpf at DFW after temps drop below freezing 

 

namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

If trends hold, look for an advisory to be issued tomorrow morning. I'm not sure who is the forecaster on duty during the afternoon or evenings this week but this person has called this a non event all week. Literally, keeps taking mention of frozen out of the forecast, only for the morning crew to reinsert. Very interesting battle going on in that office.

 

LOL....

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

1001 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCREASE SOME OF THE TYPES AND CHANCE OF

FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MADE SOME

ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ADJUSTMENTS. /06/

 
oh....didn't see that coming...haha
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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

It goes without saying wording and expectations across portions of North and Northeast Texas have increased this evening. The NWS FWD is hitting it pretty hard in the internal chat as well. This storm will probably be comparable to the one last Monday at the rate we're going. A fun 36 hours coming up!

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

It goes without saying wording and expectations across portions of North and Northeast Texas have increased this evening. The NWS FWD is hitting it pretty hard in the internal chat as well. This storm will probably be comparable to the one last Monday at the rate we're going. A fun 36 hours coming up!

 

I don't see us having the warm nose issues this time, things should flip pretty fast this go round.  

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

It goes without saying wording and expectations across portions of North and Northeast Texas have increased this evening. The NWS FWD is hitting it pretty hard in the internal chat as well. This storm will probably be comparable to the one last Monday at the rate we're going. A fun 36 hours coming up!

 

Yep, things to be trending back toward significant event potential, Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

The HRRR has precip trailing all the way down to Mexico as DFW approaches freezing.  This could be interesting for sure  :weenie:  :snowing:  :guitar:

Similar setups I can think of: March '89, Feb'89, Feb '96, Feb '03. S/e to n/w alignment, post frontal boundary with a powerful storm rolling right from Baja. This will be good for a lot of folks.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

FWD pulled the trigger on the upgrade - Winter Storm Warning Issued

 

2vjwo42.png

B_QPYNmU4AAxVoI.png

 

B_QPXTFU8AA8kTz.png

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH NOON THURSDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON...WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES ELSEWHERE...

.UPGRADED PORTION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS.

TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145-041800-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WW.Y.0006.150304T2100Z-150305T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0003.150304T2100Z-150305T1800Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...
STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...
HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
356 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATION...1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE...THEN UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING BELOW FREEZING LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
WILL BE THE FIRST PLACES THAT ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP. DO NOT SLAM
ON THE BRAKES WHEN APPROACHING AN ICY BRIDGE OR OVERPASS.
INSTEAD...MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SAFE SPEED AND COAST ACROSS THE ICE.
IF YOU START TO SLIDE OR SKID...CALMLY STEER IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE SKID TO STRAIGHTEN THE VEHICLE OUT AND REGAIN CONTROL.

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