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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Chris Robbins is saying 2-3 p.m. freezing line for the metro, which is definitely earlier than NWS.

That seems a bit early, but who knows the 40F line is around 380 and the freezing line is nearing the Red River and to the west it is near Wichita Falls and Lubbock. I think 3-6PM is most likely depending on where you are located in the Metroplex. Models show it really slowing down east of Dallas so it will be interesting if that is the case. It usually does slow some moving through E TX, but this front is not as shallow as most so I am not sure it will take 6+ hours to go from Dallas to Tyler.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Here's the latest thinking from the afternoon brief from FWD:

 

 

BOTTOM LINE:

 
As everyone knows by now, weather models yesterday evening/overnight began latching onto a scenario of stronger lift and moisture - and heavier snow and sleet accumulations - for portions of North Texas.  This resulted in the need for a Winter Storm Warning for many of our counties.  Our forecast remains essentially on track late this morning, and we're confident that a significant winter weather event will affect much of North and Central Texas later today and tonight. There will be considerable surface and air travel impacts - and some power impacts - for our area during the next 24 - 48 hours.  All of our public safety, transportation and media partners need to be planning now in response to these impacts.          
 
LOCATION/TIMING/AMOUNTS:
 
The following are our best estimates, but subject to adjustment later today/this evening:
 
1) Along/northwest of an Eastland to Gainesville line:
  • Temperatures: Drop below 32 by 3-4 pm; morning lows Thursday 21 to 25; Thursday highs 35 to 40.
  • Accumulations:  Around 1" snow/sleet; isolated higher amounts of 2-3"
  • Impacts: Significant travel impacts on all roads through Thurs morning
 
2) Broad area extending from Comanche to DFW to Paris:.  
  • Temperatures: Drop below 32 by 6-8 pm; morning lows Thursday 25 to 29; Thursday highs 34 to 38.
  • Accumulations: 1-2 inches of sleet and snow; isolated amounts of 3-4".  Less than 0.10" of freezing rain possible as precipitation changes over this evening
  • Impacts: Significant travel impacts on all roads through Thurs morning; isolated power outages also possible  
 
3) Areas south of a  Lampasas-Waco-Athens line:
  • Temperatures: Drop below 32 in a wide window between 8 pm and 3 am (closer to 8-9 pm in Killeen/Temple/Waco areas); morning lows Thursday 28 to 32; Thursday highs 35-40
  • Accumulations: Mainly averaging 1/2" sleet; up to 0.25" of freezing rain
  • Impacts: Moderate to significant travel impacts on all roads through Thursday morning, especially bridges/overpasses.  Potential for some power outages due to wind and ice accumulation on power lines and trees
  •  
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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

That seems aggressive to me but Chris knows his stuff.  Was that from an update this morning?  The high-res models are still playing catch up with the temps, each run falls behind almost immediately. 

 

Yes, a FB post this morning.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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From the looks of the above graphic FWD may need to increase amounts in the eastern counties, especially Van Zandt where they are only showing .1" ice and <1" sleet and snow. SHV has even more adjusting to do to match FWD as they have conditions shifted about 50 miles further north than FWD.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Freezing line crossing Red River.  Bowie at freezing.  Gainesville at 33.  Judging by how temps area wide are dropping, I expect it to move quickly over the metroplex.  Probably right between 2:30 - 4:30 pm.  Decatur at 35 and Denton at 37 DFW 39.     

 

Looks like Gainesville is now down to 32 and that is an hour or two ahead of what FWD was thinking earlier today.  

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Models look to really be cutting back on qpf across the DFW area this evening and tonight... wonder if along with the cold air that dry air is also spilling in faster than anticipated. 

Which models are you looking at?  I assume the high res short range.  

 

The image/loop Jorge posted of the HRRR seemed to dryslot us a bit.  

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

B_R376sW4AArY6O.png

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OK...W-CENTRAL AR...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 042012Z - 050015Z

SUMMARY...SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AR...SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTH
TEXAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLEET WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF
S-CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 29-32 DEG F RANGE. AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES...AND THE
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO W-CENTRAL AR. HERE...WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 32-35 DEGREE F RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LEADING TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND A BAND OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR REGENERATION OF PRECIPITATION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN
EVENTUAL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/04/2015

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

Models look to really be cutting back on qpf across the DFW area this evening and tonight... wonder if along with the cold air that dry air is also spilling in faster than anticipated. 

But i guess we many have more frozen precip on the front end?

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