Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[aggiegeog]

Wow, 18Z NAM keeps moving things SE. It now shows me with sleet around midnight turning to heavy snow for the early morning hours.

[DoctorMu]

EWx criteria for winter storm warnings really makes a mess of things.

 

A huge problem that will have to be fixed for Southern Cities.

[bubba hotep]

Which models are you looking at?  I assume the high res short range.  

 

The image/loop Jorge posted of the HRRR seemed to dryslot us a bit.  

 

NAM and HRRR, 12z NAM had nearly an 1" of qpf at DFW between 00z and 12z tomorrow and 18z came in with less than 0.2" qpf.  

[vwgrrc]

Wow, 18Z NAM keeps moving things SE. It now shows me with sleet around midnight turning to heavy snow for the early morning hours.

How about the metro? Get more?

[aggiegeog]

How about the metro? Get more?

Most of it is south of I-20 in the DFW area.

[DoctorMu]

31° in Denton.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like the guys forecasting a mid afternoon drop to freezing for DFW were not far off. It should reach there by 4PM.

[vwgrrc]

NAM and HRRR, 12z NAM had nearly an 1" of qpf at DFW between 00z and 12z tomorrow and 18z came in with less than 0.2" qpf.  

That would be a huge difference! 

[aggiegeog]

18Z RGEM coming in now so we will see how it compares. The NAM has drastically changed with every run.

[Brent]

Yeah hard to take the NAM seriously when it's gone from one extreme to another

[vwgrrc]

18Z RGEM coming in now so we will see how it compares. The NAM has drastically changed with every run.

So both HRRR and NAM said we're in the dry slot? Hope its not a huge bust...

[Quixotic1]

Convective cell south of Seminole.  If that's sleet or snow, oh my.  

[bubba hotep]

Yeah hard to take the NAM seriously when it's gone from one extreme to another

 

This is true and the HRRR seems to rallying a bit the last couple of runs.

[Brent]

32 on weatherbug here.

[Quixotic1]

i could use some assurances from David Reimer about what FWD is saying......

[bubba hotep]

i could use some assurances from David Reimer about what FWD is saying......

 

I read the afternoon AFD as a pretty big walk back, basically saying there might be some isolated spots of heavier sleet.  Just reading b/w the lines, they don't seem as confident as early that we will see a period of enhanced lift and heavier precip over the DFW area tonight. 

[aggiegeog]

18Z RGEM somehow mostly skips my house giving me just .25" of sleet and <.1" of freezing rain. It gives areas north of I-30 2-3" of snow, a strip from Brownwood to Texarkana .5-1" of sleet and .25-.5" of freezing rain for Central Texas.

[cheese007]

I read the afternoon AFD as a pretty big walk back, basically saying there might be some isolated spots of heavier sleet.  Just reading b/w the lines, they don't seem as confident as early that we will see a period of enhanced lift and heavier precip over the DFW area tonight. 

With how many times this forecast has changed I don't know what to believe anymore

[Quixotic1]

I read the afternoon AFD as a pretty big walk back, basically saying there might be some isolated spots of heavier sleet.  Just reading b/w the lines, they don't seem as confident as early that we will see a period of enhanced lift and heavier precip over the DFW area tonight. 

 

Yeah.  They sound a little bit antsy.  Wonder if the activity this morning might have stabilized things somewhat.  

[Roy]

Was definitely concerned with the update saying it looked like the heaviest stuff would be DFW/southeast. It would be very, very easy to say oops....it actually will be southeast of DFW entirely. Will see what radar does tonight.

[aggiegeog]

Was definitely concerned with the update saying it looked like the heaviest stuff would be DFW/southeast. It would be very, very easy to say oops....it actually will be southeast of DFW entirely. Will see what radar does tonight.

NAM is SE of DFW, but the RGEM is right over DFW and points NE. The hi-res models are pretty dry tonight. The GFS is just now rolling.

[Quixotic1]

Looking off to the southwest, it's hard to imagine DFW missing out entirely.  

[aggiegeog]

The HRRR keeps me above freezing strangely throughout the precip while areas east and west are below freezing.

[bubba hotep]

Looking off to the southwest, it's hard to imagine DFW missing out entirely.  

 

I was just going to post a comment about that, it looks really good and that is typically a sign that forcing is increasing from the SW.  The HRRR has those storms but you can watch them get undercut by the freezing line as it sags SE and the storms move NE.  It could be any number of things that the HRRR is picking up on or over doing that is causing the storms to fizzle. 

[bubba hotep]

I'm down to 32.6, time to crack a beer and start straining the eyes for sleet pellets  

[aggiegeog]

18Z GFS is very dry for all, a few spots with .1" QPF.

[jhamps10]

I'm down to 32.6, time to crack a beer and start straining the eyes for sleet pellets

 

lol go drink a shiner, enjoy the evening..

[wxmx]

Yes, guidance overall  is drier. GFS is quicker with the cold. It looks like models underestimated the dry arctic air.

[vwgrrc]

All models saying dry for dfw?? Noooooo...

[Brent]

Why don't we look at a radar which is blowing up precip