Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[Brent]

4" on the north side of the DFW metroplex. Most of it falling in 2 hours with 25-35 mph winds. Even in my wishcaster thoughts today I didn't really think we'd do that...

 

6 1/2" of snow in the last 5 days. Absolutely unbelievable turnaround to this winter. I couldnt have even made this up!

[aggiegeog]

2"+ on the ground with another heavy round to go.

Update: thebsecondbroundbis not near a heavy so maybe an additional .5" of snow.

[1900hurricane]

Got the changeover to sleet at the very end here in College Station, just as I'm about to go to class.

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[Srain]

Sleet/rain mix reported 11 N of Edna in Jackson County. For those that do not know, that is a Coastal tier County in far the SW portion SE Texas.

[Quixotic1]

Ended up with almost 7". Death band parked over us for a while.

[bubba hotep]

Bundling the kids up and about to head out for some   measurements but eyeballing the side patio (pretty much protected from the crazy wind) looks like 5 - 6" 

 

[bubba hotep]

My eyeball measurement seems to match up with this FWD map:

 

[1900hurricane]

If they do, would you mind posting it?

Little late for it to be relevant, but here is the 06Z sounding.

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[bubba hotep]

10"+ of snow from these last two events IMBY       

 

ETA: Finding 5 - 6" measurements in the more reliable areas of the yard (not grass or drifts ) and the 3 - 4" from last system, so that 10"+ should be 8 - 10"  #NoSnowboardProblems 

[Srain]

We're getting a little sleet shower here in NW Harris County.

[bubba hotep]

Low 20s making great snow play conditions for the kids

[Srain]

A snow covered N Texas this morning with the first visible imagery.

 

[Roy]

Definitely a lot more than last Friday. I would guess 4+ without measuring yet in far north Fort Worth/Keller.

[bubba hotep]

Even with a full March sun we are not seeing much melting, roads are still white

[aggiegeog]

I got almost 3". Around 3am it was snowing as hard as I can ever remember.

[bubba hotep]

[Quixotic1]

That was a pretty heavy snow. I got distracted for an hour and a half and went from an inch to five. It was still pouring when I went to bed.

[Quixotic1]

10"+ of snow from these last two events IMBY       

 

ETA: Finding 5 - 6" measurements in the more reliable areas of the yard (not grass or drifts ) and the 3 - 4" from last system, so that 10"+ should be 8 - 10"  #NoSnowboardProblems

What did you get for last Wednesday's event?

[ams30721us]

Okay...What's the next wintry event guys!? Haha jk  

[Quixotic1]

December

[Roy]

Measured finally (after probably some melting). 4 inches. It's not 6 like Grapevine, but I can't complain about 4 in Texas! With four inches, that's where I consider it a good snow since it starts to look deep enough to really look pretty and it covers up virtually all grass no matter if mowed or not. Great stuff! Melting good though on the apartment streets and no doubt starting to melt on the grass.

 

Edit: Chris Robbins really nailed this. He said yesterday morning 2-4 inches from Denton to FW on east.

 

Boom. 

 

NWS and others said it would be further south, along with TV mets, and most weren't saying 2-4 either and expected mostly sleet.

[bubba hotep]

What did you get for last Wednesday's event?

 

Got about an inch of snow on top of the sleet.  Adding everything up from November, when we had a trace of sleet and 1/4" of snow, to now and MBY is in the one foot of frozen stuff range. 

[bubba hotep]

Okay...What's the next wintry event guys!? Haha jk  

 

Euro EPS says don't give up just yet, there still might be one last hail mary! 

[ams30721us]

Oh after the last two weeks, i'm all in till the last hope! Ha

[wxmx]

Looks like the -EPO pattern won't quit, it would just reload. Guidance suggest heights crashing far south into Mexico, while most of the CONUS will change over to above average mid/upper level heights. For our region, this probably means that MX and the southern half of our region will have above average precipitation, and below average temps, while the rest is more seasonal.

 

The polar jet looks pretty powerful, not allowing the full arctic flow to go directly south, so just glancing blows from it. The caveat is that we have the two ingredients, cold and moisture in abundance, though they are not mixing very well. So if there's a mixing spoon (west coast ridge and s/w riding the backside of a longwave trough), things would get messy pretty quickly.

[wxmx]

Also, we are heading into a high amplitude MJO wave. It can be clearly seen using the 200mb velocity potential graphics, approaching from the Central Pacific. It looks like it will reach max amplitude while getting to phase 7. This, coupled with a more El Niño atmosphere, will probably promote strong Baja lows. Like I said in my previous post, we are already seeing this in the guidance, with a full blown STJ bringing a lot of moisture over the deep south of our region.

 

Even if there's no wintry precipitation, it looks like weather will keep us on our toes for most of March.

[Roy]

Hopefully some good thunderstorms to start severe weather season. I like the snow and ice, but don't want to extend the school year any longer, so unless I'm going to get 10 inches of snow, let's ready for severe weather now that I'm out of the desert.

[bubba hotep]

March sun is doing a number on the snow pack but there will be some that survives the day, esp. areas that are already in the afternoon shade.  Crazy to think that we will have two days of snow pack in March. 

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the -EPO pattern won't quit, it would just reload. Guidance suggest heights crashing far south into Mexico, while most of the CONUS will change over to above average mid/upper level heights. For our region, this probably means that MX and the southern half of our region will have above average precipitation, and below average temps, while the rest is more seasonal.

 

The polar jet looks pretty powerful, not allowing the full arctic flow to go directly south, so just glancing blows from it. The caveat is that we have the two ingredients, cold and moisture in abundance, though they are not mixing very well. So if there's a mixing spoon (west coast ridge and s/w riding the backside of a longwave trough), things would get messy pretty quickly.

 

This winter has pretty much been driven by the EPO, the negative phase certainly helped us but those two longer positive stretches killed us.  IIRC, December saw a 10+ day stretch and then we saw a similar stretch in later January.  I wonder if there is still anyone out there looking for a SSW event and the coming -AO/NAO 

[wxmx]

This winter has pretty much been driven by the EPO, the negative phase certainly helped us but those two longer positive stretches killed us.  IIRC, December saw a 10+ day stretch and then we saw a similar stretch in later January.  I wonder if there is still anyone out there looking for a SSW event and the coming -AO/NAO 

Nail in the coffin for the -AO forecast is just that we are heading into record setting daily values territory for a +AO in the next few days .