Trent Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Here's the latest Lake Erie temperature graphic. Notice the relatively warm 2010 line and the drop off in early December. That corresponds to the massive lake effect event above. With the ridiculous warm up for the weekend the 2015 line should stay very warm. If we can get the right arctic blast as in 2010 we could make up for lost time in the snow department very quickly. Unfortunately that's a pretty big IF. It's pretty sad when the 384 hour GFS doesn't even show any snow on a run in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 That might have been my favorite snow storm of all time. It's hard to believe in this day and age that much snow can fall without more than flurries being in the forecast. When people went to work downtown that morning there was no snow in the forecast. People went about their day as normal. Just before lunch the band developed and stayed put through early evening. By about 3pm, 6" had fallen in a few hours and everyone decided to leave work at the same time to get home. It was absolute insanity because at that point the snow was really coming down at about 2" per hour between 3:30-5:30pm. People started running out of gas and that exacerbated the gridlock. And then no plows could get through so you had cars getting stuck which furthered the gridlock. By 7pm it was about over, but by then downtown had about 10-12" of snow and the damage was done. It certainly made me realize how useful advance warnings for snow are. Had this same event happened but with 2 days lead time, there probably wouldn't have been these types of issues as many people would have worked from home or planned accordingly. If you had asked anyone at 10am that morning and told them that nearly a foot of snow would fall by the time they left work and it would take them up to 3 hours just to leave downtown, they would have laughed at you. Here is a picture I took of the gridlock on East 9th and Lakeside Avenue: gridlock.jpg This was my car: snowcar.jpg What happened in that event? Was it a case of completely missing the lake effect potential or just being off with the placement of the band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 What happened in that event? Was it a case of completely missing the lake effect potential or just being off with the placement of the band?It was a case of missing the potential. This band came at the end of a significant multi-day event...lake effect snow warnings were allowed to expire that morning before the band got going. A surface trough dropped across the lake and stalled along the shoreline for several hours late in the afternoon and really focused the band.Looking back at the soundings from DTX that day there was good moisture and instability below about 8k feet upwind of the lake and likely better parameters downwind of the lake...I definitely didn't expect the band to form like that myself but in retrospect it probably could've been forecast somewhat better. Most of our good W-E bands in NE Ohio occur when a surface trough drops across the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Good description of the event Trent! Even the areas outside of downtown were at a standstill (though nothing like downtown) . My 10 mile commute on 271 took an hour. I remember the rates and time period being really crazy. The 10" or so fell in the span of 4-5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Looks like we don't drop under 45 until next Monday night. Ouch! Thanks for posting the lake temps Trent... We are about to go off of the charts it appears. Wonder what the all time record is for lake temps in mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Looks like a shot of seasonable air at the end of next week (which will feel frigid after this weekend)...the GFS ensemble mean has 850mb temps of -8 to -10C and the Euro ensemble mean has 850mb temps of -10 to -12C next Friday-Saturday with a west-ish wind, so we may get some lake effect if the cold shot materializes. It currently doesn't look like a pristine setup, but some models spin up a storm to our east as the cold moves in which could potentially make the setup more decent for a brief time. Pretty good agreement on a warm up quickly following the cool down as we head into Christmas week. The ensembles try to hint at some ridging over NW Canada/Alaska (a -EPO) developing by Christmas which could get some cold in here near Christmas or a bit after, but I don't have a good feel for that potential shot yet. Odds are definitely in favor of a brown Christmas this year, although it is possible things change and we get a fluke event near Christmas as it does look like there could be transient cold shots on either side of it. Either way, December will finish much much warmer than average across the region which is as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hard to believe there's a chance of LES this weekend with the warm weather the past few days. Patches of my grass are as green as they are in the Spring. Checked the soil temp yesterday it was around 50. Safe to say that any snow that falls will certainly melt from the bottom. Still a long ways out there but the flow looks to be westerly... perhaps WSW'erly. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 The last few GFS runs and the 12z Euro both brought the winds around to WNW a little quicker Friday night and give a several hour period of moderate instability and good moisture over Lake Erie with WNW winds, which would probably allow for half decent snowfall in the primary Snowbelt late Friday night into Saturday. We'll see if that trend holds. The overall lake effect setup looks pretty good with high inversions and pretty good moisture to about 7-8k feet through the event and a long fetch...we'll see if that holds and if the wind direction cooperates. Would hate to see all the good snow go into SW NY and then see us get scraps when the winds go more WNW later in the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 It's hard to believe it's mid December and there hasn't even been a threat of a snowstorm to follow here. The airport will easily break the longest streak between 1 inch snowfalls on Thursday. It's hard to believe CLE can go that long without a "snow storm", the last being during the early morning hours on March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 What an incredible surge of warm air last night! Was that even forecast? It was 58 at about 8pm last night. IMBY I hit 60 around midnight. Interestingly BKL hit 61 at midnight. The record high at CLE today was 61. While not officially a record based on where current records are kept, it's kind of bizarre to have near record warm occur in the middle of the night like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Ya, I noticed earlier this morning that it was pretty warm. Seems to be cooler out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Definitely think there's decent potential for 6-10" (locally more) of snow in Ashtabula and Erie Counties...could be a few inches in Lake and northern Geauga as well...little for the rest of us...will try to have a more detailed forecast at some point. I like the potential for a single band of snow to persist for 12-15 hours starting late tomorrow afternoon over similar areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Definitely think there's decent potential for 6-10" (locally more) of snow in Ashtabula and Erie Counties...could be a few inches in Lake and northern Geauga as well...little for the rest of us...will try to have a more detailed forecast at some point. I like the potential for a single band of snow to persist for 12-15 hours starting late tomorrow afternoon over similar areas. Bummer we couldn't get a favorable wind diretion for us southern snowbelt folks. We'll probably get a few scraps as winds turn WNW'erly... but ridging pushes in quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 If a good band does develop to the north...I may just make a roadtrip. Need to get my snow fix lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 One of the cool things available now is the Sharppy soundings directly off of the forecast maps on both College of Dupage and Pivotalweather.com. These could be quite helpful for future lake-effect snow scenarios. College of Dupage web site also allows you to view sounding text after generating a sounding. I was playing around with generating a NAM sounding over Lake Erie tomorrow. Pivotalweather allows soundings from the 4km NAM and HRRR too. Unfortunately it doesn't allow adjustments for warm lake temperatures that are above the 2m temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 OK...here it is This will be a fairly short duration lake effect event, with around 24 hours’ worth of potentially decent lake effect snow, along with two surface troughs moving through and affecting the wind field at times. Conditions will be favorable for moderate to heavy snow Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, however the potential for any banding to shift around may limit accumulations somewhat. With a mainly west wind, this lake effect event will affect only a small portion of the primary NE Ohio Snowbelt, with more of NW PA and SW NY being affected. The first fairly potent mid-level shortwave and associated surface wind shift will move through late Friday afternoon/early evening. Winds will go WSW or even SW Friday morning and afternoon ahead of this shortwave, so any lake effect will initially be carried into SW NY. An increase in moisture and steepening lapse rates beneath the shortwave could cause a few snow showers anywhere late Friday afternoon, but accumulations will be very minimal outside of the lake effect snow. As this shortwave passes, moisture will increase over the lake and lake induced instability will increase quickly late Friday afternoon as mid-level temps cool. By Friday evening, BUFKIT forecast soundings for Erie show good moisture to above 10k feet, with equilibrium levels near 15k feet, well aligned westerly winds and strong omega (upward motion) through the snow growth zone. These favorable parameters for heavy LES along with convergence developing over the lake and pushing inland as the surface trough goes by and brings winds around to the west during the evening should result in a band of heavy snow developing and pushing inland late Friday afternoon and evening, first in Erie County and then in Ashtabula and Lake Counties. The NAM and Euro briefly show winds going almost due west overland Friday evening behind this first trough, with more WNW winds aloft near 850mb, per the above NAM forecast sounding from CLE. The stronger, more WNW winds aloft will mix to the surface over the lake, causing convergence to persist along the shoreline. With slightly south of due west winds persisting over land, any band will struggle to push too far inland. The stronger, more west or WNW winds over the lake may push any band inland enough to affect far NE Cuyahoga County and northern Geauga County for a time mid to late Friday evening behind the surface trough, but with high pressure trying to build in over land and a very strong lake to land temp differential resulting in a decent lake aggregate trough, I can’t imagine any band getting south of around US 6 for any length of time Friday evening. The models show another mid-level shortwave (more of a vort max) moving through during the wee hours on Saturday, with another surface trough. This will likely cause winds to back some overland to a more SW direction after midnight Friday night, while stronger, more west winds persist over the lake. This will allow convergence to remain strong in the northern Snowbelt, keeping any band going and likely well-organized, but the shift in winds over land will likely cause the band to shift north/become more focused across eastern Lake, northern Ashtabula and Erie Counties for a few hours after midnight Friday night. Behind the second wind shift early Saturday, moisture becomes becoming a bit more limited, and warm air advection begins occurring, so instability will slowly decrease…however, the above sounding from near Ashtabula valid 7AM Saturday off of the 0z NAM still shows deep moisture to above 850mb, with implied lake-induced equilibrium levels over near 700mb…so although snow intensity will probably start decreasing some by Saturday morning, moderate to locally heavy bursts of snow will likely continue into Saturday. Winds over land struggle to even come around to due west Saturday morning behind the passage of the second trough, so any snow will likely remain confined to extreme NE Cuyahoga/northern Geauga Counties points north. Winds stay in a similar direction through Saturday afternoon, so any snow may not shift a ton on Saturday…however as warm air advection continues and ridging continues building in, snow intensity should decrease. Temps over land warming several degrees and shear increasing some due to the ridging building in Saturday afternoon should also cause convergence to weaken some. Basically, although flurries could well continue in Erie County into Saturday night, significant snows should end Saturday afternoon. As for snowfall amounts and placement…the snowband that will push into the northern Snowbelt with the first trough late Friday afternoon and into the evening could be very intense. A very deep layer of moisture/instability combined with decent low level convergence and some synoptic lift from the passing shortwave could result in snow rates exceeding 2” per hour under the band. Lake to 500mb temp differentials could approach 45C for a time Friday evening which easily supports thunder and lightning in the band. This band will likely initially move into Erie, northern Ashtabula and eastern Lake Counties before settling south a little farther…potentially as far south as extreme NE Cuyahoga, central Geauga, southern Ashtabula and northern Crawford Counties for a brief time mid-late Friday evening…before winds on land back and shift the band a bit farther north. Even if the band moves south of parts of Erie County, pre-seeding form Lake Michigan along with orographic lift should keep some snow going, especially in the higher terrain Friday evening. Instability and moisture depth decrease a little late Friday night ahead of the second little trough but still remain favorable for decent snow…and convergence should remain strong due to winds backing over land but remaining stronger/more westerly over the water. This should allow snow rates of 1-2” per hour to continue under the stronger banding, although the potential for rates greater than 2” per hour will likely be lower than with the initial push of the band Friday evening. As the winds back over land, the band will likely become refocused across eastern Lake, northern Ashtabula and Erie County later Friday night. The band may nudge back south Saturday morning, but probably not any farther south than what occurs Friday evening. The band should then starts slowly becoming more disorganized and weakening Saturday afternoon, with snow ending Saturday night. Really don’t see much accumulation south of a line from Bratenahl to Mayfield to Orwell to Andover in NE Ohio. With the banding possibly getting into northern Geauga, extreme NE Cuyahoga and southwestern Lake Counties a couple of times, could see accumulations of 1-4” in these areas…with the best bet of 4” in the higher terrain in northern Geauga County. Could also see 1-4” in southern Ashtabula County, with lightest amounts closest to the Trumbull County boarder. Amounts should increase quickly farther northeast up the shoreline where banding will be more persistent…and also where the banding will likely coincide better with the best lake effect parameters. Expect some areas to see over 6” in eastern Lake County and quite possibly northern Ashtabula County too into Erie County. Exactly how much more than 6” and where exactly the heaviest snow occurs are the main questions. With fairly strong winds over the lake that are due west or slightly north of due west, think the heaviest snow is slightly inland from the lake. In addition, snow ratios inland should be 15-20:1 due to good instability/moisture/lift in the snow growth zone, but warmer temps over water and along the shore should result in lower ratios near the shore. Drier/warmer air works in from the southwest later on Saturday so the snow in NE Ohio will cut off before the snow in Erie County does, and Erie County will see the band push in slightly earlier late on Friday. Erie County also has a longer fetch and more terrain than most of Lake/Ashtabula Counties. Given these factors, do expect heavier snow in Erie County than in Lake or Ashtabula Counties. Given a good 15 hour window of potential 1-2” (at times higher Friday evening) rates beneath the band in Erie County, followed by another 6-9 hours of lighter but potentially still accumulating snow Saturday late morning and afternoon, and the likelihood that banding affects parts of Erie County for much of that window, expect snow totals to surpass a foot in parts of Erie County, likely a bit inland from the lake. Totals will drop off in Lake and Ashtabula Counties due to shorter windows and less terrain…but still, a good 12 hour window Friday evening into Saturday morning here and still some light snow through Saturday afternoon, so do expect 6-10” in eastern Lake County and Ashtabula Counties, heaviest inland from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Good disco Ohweather. I'm rooting for more of a northerly wind component lol. I'll be in mentor tomorrow, so hopefully I'll get to see a little of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looks like a quick burst of moderate snow moving across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Looks like a quick burst of moderate snow moving across the area. Got a very quick dusting in Oberlin, tapering off now though. Nice treat before going home to 70 degree weather in NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Got a very quick dusting in Oberlin, tapering off now though. Nice treat before going home to 70 degree weather in NC! Just had a 10 minute mini-blizzard here in Lorain. With graupel and strong gusty winds and a quick dusting, the only thing missing was thunder. Awesome nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Just had a 10 minute mini-blizzard here in Lorain. With graupel and strong gusty winds and a quick dusting, the only thing missing was thunder. Awesome nonetheless. Awesome can't wait till it makes its way to the east! Just very light snow or flurries so far. Lake band looks to be getting started too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Awesome can't wait till it makes its way to the east! Just very light snow or flurries so far. Lake band looks to be getting started too. Tough to sit this one out with the wsw wind direction. Nice to see flakes in the air though. WNY looks like the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Seems it has been a wsw wind direction with LES for about 3 winters in a row. Time to relocate about 15 miles east&north, just inside the PA line by peek n peak. Just not getting my desired snowfall in the Edinboro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 There's been pretty persistent banding for 6-7 hours (with a brief exception around 11PM) across eastern Lake County, the chimney of Geauga County and the northern 2/3rds of Ashtabula County. It took a little longer to develop but there's also now good banding into most of inland Erie County PA and northern Crawford County PA. Hopefully MAIDEsNow wakes up to a good total...as of right now it looks pretty good near Edinboro. I think with perhaps along the immediate lakeshore in NW PA that my forecast should do pretty well, but we'll see what totals actually come in in the morning. Did get a couple of snow showers that produced a whopping 0.1" of snow here in NE Summit County...my first measurable snow of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 What a mega band just north of here. I've been hearing thunder off and on so I bet the rates are amazing. I'll definitely be taking a drive to check it out. NE Cuyahoga should be under an advisory. Edit: No need to drive... the band has pushed south. Snowing heavily on the outer edge. Really surprised it made it this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 There should be impressive totals when they come in...Lake County most certainly needed a warning and Geauga County needed(s) an advisory, although it wouldn't shock me if someone north of Montville did squeak in 6". Looking at satellite and radar the current band may last another few hours with only a slow weakening. It could get a little farther south here shortly before starting to drift back north. Maybe someone can see another 3-4" today on top of what's fallen already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 What a mega band just north of here. I've been hearing thunder off and on so I bet the rates are amazing. I'll definitely be taking a drive to check it out. NE Cuyahoga should be under an advisory. Edit: No need to drive... the band has pushed south. Snowing heavily on the outer edge. Really surprised it made it this far south. Congrats on the snow! I don't think it'll make it here, but it's nice to see for you guys up there. I really don't know if there's a rhyme or reason to these bands getting farther south vs staying farther north than modeled. Up until the last couple of hours band placement was just about where you'd expect it, although now it's farther south than I thought it would get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Congrats on the snow! I don't think it'll make it here, but it's nice to see for you guys up there. I really don't know if there's a rhyme or reason to these bands getting farther south vs staying farther north than modeled. Up until the last couple of hours band placement was just about where you'd expect it, although now it's farther south than I thought it would get. I didn't think it would come this far south either. If it can take a more NW to SE position it won't lose the long fetch. But it looks like it may just sag south due E to W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Nice surprise, a few quick measurements came up with 2". Finally looking like winter! Radar looks decent, almost has a NW flow orientation to the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Several 5-10" reports in northern Ashtabula...6" in South Madison in the chimney of Geauga...8" in Edinboro. Still pretty good bands going. It's too bad the winds really didn't go WNW for any length of time with this event because it's producing. Did get a quick dusting here about an hour ago as the band did briefly get to here before starting to shift northeast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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