buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 the thing that worries me is we are getting in the realm of being way too far north.. But if we can get a partial phase that should change. The good snows all make it to about the Ohio river....that's plenty of time. This is with no phase and a strung out low in pieces riding up from the gulf. 72 hrs out with the last storm EVERY model except the ukie, was bringing the axis of heaviest between I-70 and the river. I remember thinking we even had room to spare if it moved north 75 miles. It ended up a blizzard from Chicago to Detroit and rain to northern Ohio. Every option is still on the table for this, from the ukie slider to a HECS to a 987 over CMH, (just kill me if that happens), and fixating on one solution, even if all the models show it, outside of 72 hrs is a waste of worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow.. 18z even further south. Smh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow.. 18z even further south. Smh! Might as well miss south!! We have missed every other direction!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 True.. So true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The good snows all make it to about the Ohio river....that's plenty of time. This is with no phase and a strung out low in pieces riding up from the gulf. 72 hrs out with the last storm EVERY model except the ukie, was bringing the axis of heaviest between I-70 and the river. I remember thinking we even had room to spare if it moved north 75 miles. It ended up a blizzard from Chicago to Detroit and rain to northern Ohio. Every option is still on the table for this, from the ukie slider to a HECS to a 987 over CMH, (just kill me if that happens), and fixating on one solution, even if all the models show it, outside of 72 hrs is a waste of worry. Yeah, no shame in throwing the towel here, buckeye. :-) It's just a terrible winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Might as well miss south!! We have missed every other direction!!That would almost give me more hope for the next storm. If it went that far south what's to say it can't go less south next time? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol... To funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm waiting for king NAM before I throw in the towel. It ain't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Today's shift may be a function of how data was sampled out west by satellites since all models jumped south. Gonna need to wait and see if it holds tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still some euro ensemble members at least slightly more north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah, no shame in throwing the towel here, buckeye. :-) It's just a terrible winter. At 120 hours out, yes there's shame in throwing in the towel. Hell 2 days ago everyone was crying that this was going to end up raining on us because, 'logically' since the last one did it, this one had to as well. I tried to convince you that just because the last one rained on us didn't mean this one would and I got the same, 'whatever' response. Now the models have whiplashed into a sudden south shift. So now the new logic is the models apparently rule at day 5...lol. If you are going to throw in the towel, can you at least provide a little bit of reasoning behind it, other than 'woe are we'. Trust me I'm frustrated as hell too, but I'm not going to post here and follow every model run on one hand, and then pretend like I already know it's toast on the other hand. If it's toast why are you looking at the models? Just to be clear, I have no idea what happens, I still believe we could get screwed north or south. I've said it a dozen times....Sunday 00z. If model consensus is a squash to the south at that time....yea, I'll think about throwing in the towel and you guys can laugh at me, how's that? No hard feelings, I like all my central Ohio weenie brothers, it's just that it would be nice to have one other person in Ohio that wasn't a damn Debbie Downer, you guys make me feel like Josh on ecstacy......geezus By the way, this doesn't say it's over, it says it's confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At 120 hours out, yes there's shame in throwing in the towel. Hell 2 days ago everyone was crying that this was going to end up raining on us because, 'logically' since the last one did it, this one had to as well. I tried to convince you that just because the last one rained on us didn't mean this one would and I got the same, 'whatever' response. Now the models have whiplashed into a sudden south shift. So now the new logic is the models apparently rule at day 5...lol. If you are going to throw in the towel, can you at least provide a little bit of reasoning behind it, other than 'woe are we'. Trust me I'm frustrated as hell too, but I'm not going to post here and follow every model run on one hand, and then pretend like I already know it's toast on the other hand. If it's toast why are you looking at the models? Just to be clear, I have no idea what happens, I still believe we could get screwed north or south. I've said it a dozen times....Sunday 00z. If model consensus is a squash to the south at that time....yea, I'll think about throwing in the towel and you guys can laugh at me, how's that? No hard feelings, I like all my central Ohio weenie brothers, it's just that it would be nice to have one other person in Ohio that wasn't a damn Debbie Downer, you guys make me feel like Josh on ecstacy......geezus By the way, this doesn't say it's over, it says it's confused. You know I'm partially just busting your balls, right? :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You know I'm partially just busting your balls, right? :-). yes....I know that. I get the whole thing about pessimism never disappointing...I've taken that road before too. I just hate being the ONLY one on the other road....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yes....I know that. I get the whole thing about pessimism never disappointing...I've taken that road before too. I just hate being the ONLY one on the other road....lol My reasoning as I stated in a previous post is that it isn't just one or two models depicting this. Every model is. Every model has shifted the axis of the storm to the south. I mean unless you're satisfied with 3" snowfalls then by all means. At this point we need a phase to get this thing turning or a 300-1000 mile shift north depending on the model. Lol. GFS would be about 1000 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yes....I know that. I get the whole thing about pessimism never disappointing...I've taken that road before too. I just hate being the ONLY one on the other road....lol I'm definately not tossing this one yet. If the models are still down there at 0z sunday, it's over, but until then, I have a feeling we have a chance. If we can get a little phasing, it will come way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yes....I know that. I get the whole thing about pessimism never disappointing...I've taken that road before too. I just hate being the ONLY one on the other road....lolI'm w/ u man! All the way!!!! I ain't sayn its over....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yes....I know that. I get the whole thing about pessimism never disappointing...I've taken that road before too. I just hate being the ONLY one on the other road....lol.also you're not the only one. I'm there with ya. I've definitely not thrown it in yet. But if we don't start getting some sign of a phase or a shift back north then I think, given the model consensus with this storm (south), then I will throw in the towel tomorrow nights 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm all a board this crazy train lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 My reasoning as I stated in a previous post is that it isn't just one or two models depicting this. Every model is. Every model has shifted the axis of the storm to the south. I mean unless you're satisfied with 3" snowfalls then by all means. At this point we need a phase to get this thing turning or a 300-1000 mile shift north depending on the model. Lol. GFS would be about 1000 lol you mean like every model showing the axis of heaviest snow along the I-70 corridor and south at 72 hours before the last storm? my many years of following models has taught me that just because they all suddenly go to a similar solution, doesn't mean it's right...especially when the shift is sudden. That could just mean they're all digesting the same bad data....especially at this range. You guys all remember the infamous blizzard app runner that showed up on all the models like 96 hours out, (I think it was in 2007). Everyone bought it because ALL the models suddenly had it. I remember LC's blog about how Ohio was going to be paralyzed and a similar blog from one of the accuwx mets. A day later models began to lose it one by one and it eventually was a slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 you mean like every model showing the axis of heaviest snow along the I-70 corridor and south at 72 hours before the last storm? my many years of following models has taught me that just because they all suddenly go to a similar solution, doesn't mean it's right...especially when the shift is sudden. That could just mean they're all digesting the same bad data....especially at this range. You guys all remember the infamous blizzard app runner that showed up on all the models like 96 hours out, (I think it was in 2007). Everyone bought it because ALL the models suddenly had it. I remember LC's blog about how Ohio was going to be paralyzed and a similar blog from one of the accuwx mets. A day later models began to lose it one by one and it eventually was a slider. Well I said I'm on board until 0z tomorrow. If at that time they're still all showing a southerly solution then I'll give in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well I said I'm on board until 0z tomorrow. If at that time they're still all showing a southerly solution then I'll give in. I'll hang on about 24 hrs longer than that, but yea, I admit if it's still passing thru Charleston SC on all the models at 00z Saturday with no sign of a north trend, it's going to be tough to stay optimistic. Think of it like this. If we were all being bullseyed right now. Would you all feel comfortable? I know I wouldn't. Because we all know the models aren't going to hold a solution for 5 days. So if that solution isn't trusted 5 days out, why should any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 a JB bone...fwiw "This trough is amplifying in a position that does not seem consistent with the suppressed track. Of late, most corrections have been north. There are 3 branches that could phase into one heck of a monster here and while the idea of the further east track is on the table, That kind of negative that far west is usually an invitation to correct west. This is as described though back on the 7th, the southern plains snow and ice from a low coming out of the gulf. There will be alot of people affected and this will be one heck of a storm its entire length You can see we are playing with some big ticket potential and it looks like a white correcto-ribbon for the areas that have been missed on our snow forecast so far from the southern plains to the mid Atlantic" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Question: their saying the storm will follow the artic boundry..we are suppose to be around 30 on Monday..so would that not mean that the storm could possibly move north towards the colder air..Just asking!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Energy is still out over Siberia, pacific, and western Mexico. Don't sweat yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Im actually excited for the first time to be below the sounthern trend! Statistically most stroms this year have go north. Thats where my money is going on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'll hang on about 24 hrs longer than that, but yea, I admit if it's still passing thru Charleston SC on all the models at 00z Saturday with no sign of a north trend, it's going to be tough to stay optimistic. Think of it like this. If we were all being bullseyed right now. Would you all feel comfortable? I know I wouldn't. Because we all know the models aren't going to hold a solution for 5 days. So if that solution isn't trusted 5 days out, why should any? No I wouldnt. But I also don't feel too comfortable with a track as the gfs shows now. That's gonna take a phase or a huge correction north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dilly whats the worst of 2 evils? Bullseye or our current track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With the 3 key pieces of energy in these circled locations for the 12z data today, can't say I have strong faith in the models yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I call shotgun on buckeye's bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Did all of the models eat the same potato salad left out in the sun at the picnic? Tune in at 0z Sunday and find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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