WxBlue Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Temp did fine until winds turned south, and then it plummeted??? :axe: That was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yea you being exactly the same and Phil being wicked cold on temps scare me for sure, but this is the first day I feel the USL could be too cold for tomorrow. Edit: I would love to hear Phil's opinion on temps tomorrow since he did go colder than most of us here. Haha my thoughts are: "had 5 minutes to forecast and went with numbers close to MOS" So I got lucky on the low last night... had I looked at more guidance I probably would have gone a touch warmer. I might get lucky on the high too since low clouds have moved in, which could temper WAA somewhat. With full mixing I only saw them getting to 32-33 and with clouds that could even get more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yea, how in the world does the temperature begin to drop when winds kick in out of the south at 7mph? Only explanation is that temperatures were colder to their south and the wind advected in that colder air before warming things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 35+ for a high and 15+ for the wind is looking mighty good. I guess I can deal with missing the low if the high and winds work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You nailed the low, and I think the warmer highs and somewhat stronger winds could well work out so you could be in decent shape for today. Clearly I had some luck since I thought the temperature would drop before the winds picked up. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 day 4 so far: 35/11/15/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Clearly I had some luck since I thought the temperature would drop before the winds picked up. Strange.Heh you'll have a half point day. Not bad. Luck helps sometimes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 25/10/18/0. I was at 12F for a low and was thinking second period, but now with models being 4F off the dew and skies clearer so far than predicted I went 10F. The fresh snow that they got could help them drop tonight before clouds and winds increase again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Forecast for Day 5 from icy Asheville: 22/9/18/0 I didn't give this forecast a lot of thoughts, but USL has done better than me on lows so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 24/8/17/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 25/10/18/0. I was at 12F for a low and was thinking second period, but now with models being 4F off the dew and skies clearer so far than predicted I went 10F. The fresh snow that they got could help them drop tonight before clouds and winds increase again. Similar to you. 25/12/18/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 22/11/17. Made my forecast on about 5 minutes of looking at data so it was a "the USL is doing okay" type forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm starting to think I should have went lower than 10F. Probably will be 8F with my luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 23/9/18/0 Low was a tough call--had to respect the fresh snow cover along with the threat of a 06Z low tomorrow night. Maybe I'll get the 9 right at 06Z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 25/12/19/0 Am worried about the low. Figured with some clouds and SW winds much of the night they wouldn't drop hard (with 1" of snow on the ground)...they're at 9 now. Some stations upstream have really bounced around depending on cloud cover, we'll see if SPI bounces up at all or not by 6z. Was actually going for a 6z low tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Back up to 11...I'm guessing it won't get back down below 10 again until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 13F at 6z. Phew that was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looked at KSPI for first time since entering forecast. Um.... what the heck was that? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 21F at 12z. Looks like a fun day ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I originally had 27F, but thought that might be a bit too crazy... now, I'm not so sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Not looking good for me to get single digits before 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I originally had 27F, but thought that might be a bit too crazy... now, I'm not so sure... 29F so far... wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 And two guys ahead of me in yearly rankings for Category 4 had highs above 24 One day I USL-forecasted the whole year and this happened... Oh well, it's time to move on to next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I knew there was a good chance for beating MOS on the warm side given the 850-hPa temps and forecast for significant wind.... but this was a bit more than expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 15/3/24/0 Low confidence on temps. Bumped high up to 15...might have gone even higher if not for fear of clearing before 06 UTC. Wasn't sure about the low tomorrow but already thinking I might be too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 16/5/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17/4/25/0 High will probably be at 6z. A blend of models generally suggested 14-16, although the ARW which did better with the warm high today is still 19-20 at 6z. Looking at obs upstream wasn't sure they'd drop quite as quickly as the models show so hedged a tad warmer. For the low wasn't certain. No snow pack in Springfield itself (patches in backyards don't count) and not sure how quickly low clouds clear tomorrow night, so didn't go any lower than the warmer end of MOS and the 12z Euro. Winds will be interesting...there's a nice burst behind the front that should move through there right before 6z tonight, so those of us who went 18 knots or higher for day 5 will probably still do OK. With 925mb winds of around 30 knots tomorrow morning in strong CAA, hedged high for the winds. The NAM almost appears to suggest the potential for decent snow showers with another wind shift in the morning and decent omega and RH in the low levels...a snow squall would definitely help that wind potential too. Not high enough confidence in a heavy enough snow shower to measure precip to put anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17/1/25 This has been a confidence-killing city so far with how well my Cat. 4 rivals have been doing this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17/3/23/0. I'm still trying to catch consensus after getting climo'd day 1. Only 6 points back now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17/7/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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