Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 16/4/24/0.03. I'm making a play at precipitation. I like the good lift as the arctic front passes and enhances those snow squalls. They actually picked up 0.02" last time an arctic front of this magnitude moved through and that had wind speeds more intense than this one, so I'm thinking a good squall will put down at least 0.02". That's my play for an extra point for day 6. Otherwise, I like all my numbers. I feel the high will depend on the snow squalls and saturating the atmosphere because if one comes through before 6z that will bump the temp down and then recovery might only be up to 16F, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Welp, all my precip is occurring before 6z. Looks like I will have 1.2 points on top of whatever other error I get tomorrow. Hopefully not much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The winds are 21 knots gusting to 29 knots right now. That helps me. We'll see if it's 16 or 17F at 6z haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The winds are 21 knots gusting to 29 knots right now. That helps me. We'll see if it's 16 or 17F at 6z haha. Precip falling before 6z hurts my chances for after 6z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Precip falling before 6z hurts my chances for after 6z lol I was going to put precip but was concerned that every model but the NAM showed the precip falling before 6z. Wish I put precip for day 5 though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Dropped 3F in less than 30 minutes ugh. 16F might be too high now the way its falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17F now and the drop isn't as fast. Took 15 minutes to get from 18F to 17F. Come on, let's squeeze out another degree for 16F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17F on the 6z ob! Phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17F on the 6z ob! Phew Doesn't the metar report not include the minutes prior to 6z? So technically it could still drop to 16F in the 7 minutes before actual 6z right? Edit: Hopefully a speci ob comes in at 0559z of 16F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Doesn't the metar report not include the minutes prior to 6z? So technically it could still drop to 16F in the 7 minutes before actual 6z right? Edit: Hopefully a speci ob comes in at 0559z of 16F You may be right, I honestly don't know the specifics on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Welp, all my precip is occurring before 6z. Looks like I will have 1.2 points on top of whatever other error I get tomorrow. Hopefully not much more. This is exactly why I went 0.00 tomorrow. HRRR consistently had all the measurable precip before 06z. Sure had zero for today, but so did most everyone else! 17/4/23/0.00 Looks like the 6z high was 17! Good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Doesn't the metar report not include the minutes prior to 6z? So technically it could still drop to 16F in the 7 minutes before actual 6z right? Edit: Hopefully a speci ob comes in at 0559z of 16F Without any sort of special METAR they will go with the climo report I believe which should be conveniently 12am-12am in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 D6 high and D5 winds: check. Low: pending, but likely way too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Lol 10 to 2 in an hour there goes my low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Without any sort of special METAR they will go with the climo report I believe which should be conveniently 12am-12am in this case. No, that's not how it works. The only thing they use from the climo is the winds. The high/low always comes from the 6-hourly METAR reports (unless there is a problem with the METARS, i.e. they don't have the 6-hourly report, which I've never seen during WxChallenge). Also... wasn't expecting the low in the morning! But then, I wasn't expecting yesterday's low to be at the EARLY 06z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, that low is lucky. Back up to 10 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Those snow showers are interesting. Wish they looked stronger on radar. I just need 0.02 for a bit of an edge on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, that low is lucky. Back up to 10 now I'll take it, though! Wow at my luck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'll take it, though! Wow at my luck...It may end up getting just as cold or colder by 6z making the morning drop moot. We shall see! Need the winds on my end, 15 knots gusting to 29 last hourEdit: I see they had a 24 knots gusting to 30 ob earlier. Bingo for 25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This low tonight is tough. Could be some clouds through the first half of the night and they will stay windy with a well-mixed boundary layer all night. I'd normally stay above 0 in this situation with no snow pack and so far south but would expect a few degrees below 0 with a snow pack. It looks like they have 1-2" on the ground which is so marginal but could be enough. Euro has a low of +1, HRRR and RAP look like they're on their way to -5 or colder, GFS is right near 0 but the NAM is below. The NMM is -1 for a low and the ARW +2...GFS MOS -3 and NAM MOS -4. USL is -2. 17z HRRR looks a few degrees too cold upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It may end up getting just as cold or colder by 6z making the morning drop moot. We shall see! Need the winds on my end, 15 knots gusting to 29 last hour Edit: I see they had a 24 knots gusting to 30 ob earlier. Bingo for 25+ Look like my 17/1/25 will do well for D6. Anyway, tomorrow's forecast is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 17/2/25 in climo with also 0.01 for precip. Wonder if wxchallenge will use that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This low tonight is tough. Could be some clouds through the first half of the night and they will stay windy with a well-mixed boundary layer all night. I'd normally stay above 0 in this situation with no snow pack and so far south but would expect a few degrees below 0 with a snow pack. It looks like they have 1-2" on the ground which is so marginal but could be enough. Euro has a low of +1, HRRR and RAP look like they're on their way to -5 or colder, GFS is right near 0 but the NAM is below. The NMM is -1 for a low and the ARW +2...GFS MOS -3 and NAM MOS -4. USL is -2. 17z HRRR looks a few degrees too cold upstream. Yes this is very much shaping up to be a nerve racking temp forecast tonight... all hanging on whether or not the boundary layer decouples at the surface. NAM says no, and we stay above 0F. HRRR says yes and we are approaching -10F. Winds will slacken off tonight. If they do manage to go below 5 knots... lookout! NAM: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/namsndg/sndgspi.html HRRR: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_snd_spi.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 15/-1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 16/-8/16/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 11/-4/16 Seriously got no idea and short-range models are COLD so I went with locals who know their stuff and that's NWS. I guess things could be warmer than 11 quite easily, but I'm going with low temps tonight so I kept my high low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 14/-1/15/0 Fairly confident that decoupling won't happen--at least it didn't upstream last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 16/-6/16/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 No, that's not how it works. The only thing they use from the climo is the winds. The high/low always comes from the 6-hourly METAR reports (unless there is a problem with the METARS, i.e. they don't have the 6-hourly report, which I've never seen during WxChallenge). Also... wasn't expecting the low in the morning! But then, I wasn't expecting yesterday's low to be at the EARLY 06z! Thanks for giving the correct info... I forgot they only used the climo report for winds. Looks like it will be 17F after all for day 6. My #'s: 12/-7/13/0.00 And this bolded statement in the quote is why I am so bullish on the low tonight. As soon as the winds got below 10 knots last night, the temperature nosedived to 2F (which was largely unexpected). The HRRR is going super cold tonight (like -10F) and has winds getting down into the 5 knot range. It wouldn't take much for things to decouple from there and cause a similar temperature nosedive especially with snowpack and clear skies. Its a risky forecast, but there was simply too much risk reward to not go for it! (I am definitely prepared to eat crow tomorrow ) It would be one thing if the HRRR was showing no decoupling and these very low temp values. The NAM doesn't decouple the boundary layer and hence its much warmer (along with the rest of the guidance). May the best boundary layer physics win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 16/-6/16/0. Thanks for giving the correct info... I forgot they only used the climo report for winds. Looks like it will be 17F after all for day 6. My #'s: 12/-7/13/0.00 And this bolded statement in the quote is why I am so bullish on the low tonight. As soon as the winds got below 10 knots last night, the temperature nosedived to 2F (which was largely unexpected). The HRRR is going super cold tonight (like -10F) and has winds getting down into the 5 knot range. It wouldn't take much for things to decouple from there and cause a similar temperature nosedive especially with snowpack and clear skies. Its a risky forecast, but there was simply too much risk reward to not go for it! (I am definitely prepared to eat crow tomorrow ) It would be one thing if the HRRR was showing no decoupling and these very low temp values. The NAM doesn't decouple the boundary layer and hence its much warmer (along with the rest of the guidance). May the best boundary layer physics win! Thank you for having faith in going below NWS/USL combo! Making me feel better actually, haha. I also like your high, Phil Last night's low is exactly why I'm siding with locals for tonight and going cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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