Mallow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah, the low was definitely the trickiest part tomorrow. I have no idea whether or not they'll decouple tonight. I could see -12F, or 2F, or anything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well I had consensus with everything but max. 12/-2/14/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 15/1/14/0 Low was obviously a big risk. If winds stay up they'll probably level off just above 0, but there is definitely a non-zero chance they decouple and get much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 -1 was the coldest, pending an intra hour low. They never decoupled but did get a tad colder than I thought. Given the bust potential the low had either way I'll take the two points of error and not complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 After today, I'm even more disheartened by the freakish 2F yesterday morning that nobody predicted. If that hadn't happened, the low would have been 4F, and I would have had a two-point day, and I would have a great shot at a trophy. Oh well, it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yep... No decoupling, and I feel like a sucker for falling for the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Shucks, -2 intra hour. That essentially makes it impossible for me to get a trophy, but I'll finish well above consensus unless I completely crap the bed tomorrow, and my cumulative rank should climb back into the top 5. Baby steps of improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Shucks, -2 intra hour. That essentially makes it impossible for me to get a trophy, but I'll finish well above consensus unless I completely crap the bed tomorrow, and my cumulative rank should climb back into the top 5. Baby steps of improvement I would still be worried about a quick drop before 6z tonight as winds will probably go calm tonight for a period before return flow kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would still be worried about a quick drop before 6z tonight as winds will probably go calm tonight for a period before return flow kicks in. Yep... and FWIW HRRR does show a sharp drop by 03z tonight with no wind. I'd be very weary though considering its recent performance... a lot depends on when the cloud cover arrives and when the sfc ridge axis moves overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I just need 1 more degree. Come on Springfield! Late Feb sun angle FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 16/-2/15/0 on the first climo report. Hopefully they can nose dive before 6z because I'm just being greedy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 31/6/23/0 The quick drop to 10 made me a little nervous, but I still think KSPI will be headed in the other direction by 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 29/4/25/.02 I have no confidence on the low. Could drop a lot before 06z and then come back up. Could bottom out right at 06z. Precip could come in earlier. So much could go wrong tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 28/-1/22/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 31/10/24/0 With clouds moving in soon and the ridge axis passing by 6z, I expect them to drop a few degrees this evening and then rebound just before 6z. I may be too warm but I was feeling very risky (mainly because the one forecaster ahead of me at OU for SPI was sitting in the room with me while I forecasted). With 850mb temps getting close to 0C and strong south winds tomorrow, felt models were too cold, especially if there is a period of thinner clouds tomorrow afternoon. I could see the temps not falling tomorrow evening so there could be a nice window for the high. Probably my highest risk forecast of the city, lots could go well or wrong, hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow... I could still get a trophy. It's extremely unlikely, though, and worst of all, it's mostly dependent on the low. For the high, as long as it's 29F or higher, I'm okay. I feel pretty good about that. For the wind, as long as it's 25kts or higher, I'm okay. I feel pretty good about that. For the precip, as long as it's 0.02" or higher, I'm okay. I feel okay about that. But for the low, I need it to be EXACTLY 4F. I'd give that about a 2% chance of happening. At least I'll know that I don't have a chance in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 29/3/24. Looking forward to righting the ship in the land of the LBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 29/0/25/0 Hopefully that low keep dropping all the way down to my low at 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ridge axis appears to be passing SPI now. Temps went from 6 to 7 last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Down to -5 to -10 directly under the surface high. Fortunately that is moving away and the clouds are starting to fill in. Starting to wonder if my 6 was too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I just need a fluke drop to 4 and call it night so me and this one other guy at UNCA can keep it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well to the east and southeast the temps are way below zero and the winds are forecast to start blowing from that direction. Would that mean the temperature would drop because the source region is much colder than at Springfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Well to the east and southeast the temps are way below zero and the winds are forecast to start blowing from that direction. Would that mean the temperature would drop because the source region is much colder than at Springfield? Perhaps if the winds stay light... but if it starts picking up in intensity it will probably induce mixing with the the warmer air above the sfc layer and that could lead to warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Based on last hour, I think KSPI could drop another degree or two randomly to 3 or 4 before rising for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 5 is the low today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Oooops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Wow... I could still get a trophy. It's extremely unlikely, though, and worst of all, it's mostly dependent on the low. For the high, as long as it's 29F or higher, I'm okay. I feel pretty good about that. For the wind, as long as it's 25kts or higher, I'm okay. I feel pretty good about that. For the precip, as long as it's 0.02" or higher, I'm okay. I feel okay about that. But for the low, I need it to be EXACTLY 4F. I'd give that about a 2% chance of happening. At least I'll know that I don't have a chance in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 21 knots at the very least with gusts up to 29 knots. I think things look good for those who went 24+ knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 21 knots at the very least with gusts up to 29 knots. I think things look good for those who went 24+ knots. Sun is coming out too... temp should be rocketing up with good mixing, WAA, and solar insolation... liking above consensus on the high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Sun is coming out too... temp should be rocketing up with good mixing, WAA, and solar insolation... liking above consensus on the high today. Agreed on winds and temperatures. And on precip, I am beginning to think 0.1 or even as high as 0.25 are not out of reach, based on some of the recent guidance... It sucks, because I discussed with my class last night the possibility that there could be a lot more precip than most of the models had (the Canadian last night had a bullseye of over 0.25", but that was it)... because models tend to be too slow/too far south with the northern end of the precip shield in these kinds of storms. But none of us had the guts to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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