Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Current QBO readings ( as of Sept. Found this on NOAA).. Ignore the -999s... 30mb: 50mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Current QBO readings ( as of Sept. Found this on NOAA).. Ignore the -999s... 30mb: image.jpg 50mb: image.jpg You want that Sept Oct Nov -QBO avg to be between -8 and -16 to be ideal. Below -20 can be bad, but certainly not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You want that Sept Oct Nov -QBO avg to be between -8 and -16 to be ideal. Below -20 can be bad, but certainly not always. What do you mean by "bad".... Too hot or too cold?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What do you mean by "bad".... Too hot or too cold?? Bad as in warmer less snow. Its a case of too much of a good thing. Strong easterly or -QBO's in the fall months can inhibit vortex displacement thus leading to less arctic outbreaks in winter. Inversely, strong easterly QBO in the winter months can aid in PV displacement. However, I've found that during years of high SCE, strong fall time QBO's have less impact on winter time. Of course their are many many other factors to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 CORRECT and there is GOOD new on the QBO front... You want that Sept Oct Nov -QBO avg to be between -8 and -16 to be ideal. Below -20 can be bad, but certainly not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 OK lets talk about the QBO so far this Autumn. Al Joseph over at wxmidwest has done some GREAT work on the QBO values ... and whether they are rising or falling as you go into the Winter months . this first image shows the CURRENT QBO values from 1 JAN 2014 to 27 oct 2014. THis chart is easy enough to read.... the QBO is read at 30mb level and I have drawn in a THICK black line to show 30 mb. At the bottom of the graph... you can see the months and the COLOR scale To ease comprehension I have ENLARGED the last 60 days As you can clearly see On Sept 1 and OCT 1 the black line JUST touches the dark Green ....which stands for values of -20 to -29. And because the Black line barely touches the Dark green areas it is safe to read thai as Low -20s values As you see in the enlargement the dark green area is COMPLETELY gone as we near NOV 1. This is SIGNIFICANT .... because it means that the QBO as we head into winter .... is rising to weak negative values or Neutral . There is a good correlation between weak East QBO or NEUTRAL enhanced Blocking patterns in the cold season months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 here.... IF my estimate is correct and the trend continues then the DEC 1 reading... which will come out DEC 3 or 4 ..could be around -10.00... and would likely be in the ideal range JAN FEB MARCH 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As you see in the enlargement the dark green area is COMPLETELY gone as we near NOV 1. This is SIGNIFICANT .... because it means that the QBO as we head into winter .... is rising to weak negative values or Neutral . There is a strong correlation between weak East QBO or NEUTRAL enhanced Blocking patterns in the cold season months Regarding the strong corrrelation of weak east QBO/neutral QBO to blocking, what type of blocking? NAO? AO? Both? Other? Do you have any specifc analog winters in mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 The best SAI year on the graph was a November furnace: I'd take that analog all day long.... Dec 2009 was really good here, winter basically kicked in around Dec 3rd and ended around Mid March, abruptly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GaWx There is a tendency to think -AO or -EPO or -NAO with weakly east or Neutral QBO but that is not correct. From what i can see weakly east or Neutral QBO favor blocking patterns somewhere ... but it might be over Europe or Russia or Siberia just as easily as -AO or -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 OK lets talk about the QBO so far this Autumn. Al Joseph over at wxmidwest has done some GREAT work on the QBO values ... and whether they are rising or falling as you go into the Winter months . this first image shows the CURRENT QBO values from 1 JAN 2014 to 27 oct 2014. THis chart is easy enough to read.... the QBO is read at 30mb level and I have drawn in a THICK black line to show 30 mb. At the bottom of the graph... you can see the months and the COLOR scale qpf.jpg To ease comprehension I have ENLARGED the last 60 days As you can clearly see On Sept 1 and OCT 1 the black line JUST touches the dark Green ....which stands for values of -20 to -29. And because the Black line barely touches the Dark green areas it is safe to read thai as Low -20s values ENL.jpg As you see in the enlargement the dark green area is COMPLETELY gone as we near NOV 1. This is SIGNIFICANT .... because it means that the QBO as we head into winter .... is rising to weak negative values or Neutral . There is a strong correlation between weak East QBO or NEUTRAL enhanced Blocking patterns in the cold season months DT, That's the most awesome, comprehensive visual of QBO I've seen. Its great to see it decline below -20. Just curious, do you know if the monthly values given by ERSL are monthly averages or are the just a daily value at end of month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GaWx There is a tendency to think -AO or -EPO or -NAO with weakly east or Neutral QBO but that is not correct. From what i can see weakly east or Neutral QBO favor blocking patterns somewhere ... but it might be over Europe or Russia or Siberia just as easily as -AO or -NAO Dave, Thanks. So, would the weakly east or neutral QBO combined with El Nino possibly favor it to be more of a -NAO and/or -AO type blocking vs. if it weren't an El Nino? Also, do you know if having a +PDO tilts the type of blocking toward -NAO and/or -AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'd take that analog all day long.... Dec 2009 was really good here, winter basically kicked in around Dec 3rd and ended around Mid March, abruptly. I would not wanna gamble with that pattern again. As far as a i am aware that was the snowiest winter ever around here during a mod/strong Nino with such a negative AO/NAO to boot. Reasons why patterns like that typically favor i-95 vs the GL. We got very lucky.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data if you look at some of the great Eastern US Winter you will see WEAK or near Neutral QBO vakues DJF for example the great winter of 1957-58... the DJF vakues were +7.35 +5.25 + 4.10 1960-61... -11.26..... -5.47..... -0.62 1977 -78 ... +1.69...+3.21 +6.07 1978-79.... +1.46.....+1.86.....+4.12 1992-93........ +8.19.....+9,63 ....+10.81 1993-94....... -6.00 -7.84 -9.84 1995 -96...... -4.57 -5.,79..... -6.90 2002-03...... -0.50 -1.39 -1.432003-04.... -11.38 -4.84..... +2.61 2004-05 ..... +2.45 -0.69..... -0.96 2006 -07 .....+6.21 ... +2.61 ....+ 2.43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 My view is that weak / Moderate El Nino and w eak east / Neutral QBO do favor -AO and -NAO Dave, Thanks. So, would the weakly east or neutral QBO combined with El Nino possibly favor it to be more of a -NAO and/or -AO type blocking vs. if it weren't an El Nino? Also, do you know if having a +PDO tilts the type of blocking toward -NAO and/or -AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 My view is that weak / Moderate El Nino and w eak east / Neutral QBO do favor -AO and -NAO 04-05 comes out screaming in agreement. Thus note when the AO/NAO went negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 04-05 comes out screaming in agreement. Thus note when the AO/NAO went negative.. 2003 - 2004 almost fits like glove regarding a low end strong -QBO moving toward weak - neutral into Met winter. That winter also featured - AO -NAO couplets during J and F, that December, despite being toasty featured one the best snow storms of my life, Dec 5-6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Since it is now so late in the month, I assume it is pretty trivial in importance and mainly only of interest for the index related stats. Anyway, fwiw, the GFS/Euro model consensus does give a decent amount of snow to some of the bare areas in Manchuria and also northern China below Mongolia, between now and 10/31. I could see these areas contributing as much as ~0.5 msk of new SC to the sub 60N SCE and helping to counter other sub 60N losses that are liable to occur. Regardless, we appear to be looking stellar for the final SAI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 For comparisons 2009 week 42 was 10.85, msk week 43 was 15.99 msk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 2003 - 2004 almost fits like glove regarding a low end strong -QBO moving toward weak - neutral into Met winter. That winter also featured - AO -NAO couplets during J and F, that December, despite being toasty featured one the best snow storms of my life, Dec 5-6th. I wouldn't use it as a analog though considering there was probably some leftover ( Hangover ) effects of the mod nino etc of the year before. On THIS front those mid/late 70s analogs ( 76-77/77-78 ) might be the best we have as far as analogs go with enso/QBO/snowcover.. Thus -QBO rising/weak nino. Note.. I use the old ONI chart and thus how i get a weak nino. If we were using that we would be in a weak nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I wouldn't use it as a analog though considering there was probably some leftover ( Hangover ) effects of the mod nino etc of the year before. On THIS front those mid/late 70s analogs ( 76-77/77-78 ) might be the best we have as far as analogs go with enso/QBO/snowcover.. Thus -QBO rising/weak nino. Note.. I use the old ONI chart and thus how i get a weak nino. If we were using that we would be in a weak nino. Yeah but those years were not particularly strong easterly QBO, they never fell below -20 during the fall. 03, 04 had a strong -20 fall avg then rose during the winter months as could be the case this fall winter as DT pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yeah but those years were not particularly strong easterly QBO, they never fell below -20 during the fall. 03, 04 had a strong -20 fall avg then rose during the winter months as could be the case this fall winter as DT pointed out. One of those what is more important? QBO ( -QBO ) , ENSO+lag, or snowcover? Not the greatest of fall ( Sept/Oct ) precip matches either. ME? I wouldn't use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GaWx, if we drop a bit in the last few days, it shouldn't matter if this massive SAI this year set the wheels in motion. That number is high enough to make a few days worth of losses trivial. Very trivial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Added the 28th to the loop: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Are you sure? One of the only places visible is the North Eastern part of the Nordic regions and there is no snow there. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014301.aqua.4km.jpg Again, the differences in the maps have to do with resolution. The NESDIS maps are encoded at 4km so they pick up on snow/no-snow differently than Rutger's 200km plots or NATICE's 24km plots. There is indeed snow in Scandinavia although it is hurting. Here's a super hi-rez snow temperature VIIRS image from 2am EST last night. It's at 1km resolution and tells the story well. Grey is cloud cover, brown is clear land and colors are pixels returning snow. Reds, yellows and oranges are above freezing (melting, corroborating the above freezing overnight temps in the post by weatherdude) and the few blue pixels in the far NW are below freezing snow temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 2nd highest week 43 ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.... snow loses in Scandinavia is 100% irrelevant Agree. If you want to get a good idea on the daily "health" of the snowpack where it really matters, there are ways to check. Here's the larger VIIRS snow temp map of Eurasia. Sorry for the large file size. Again, from 2am last night. As well, here's the folder to get them from in the future: ftp://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/smcd/emb/snow/viirs/snow-fraction/images/north-east/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 A public kudos to Tom Estilow! He is my Rutgers contact and has - as you saw up-thread - updated the weekly charts. If you are unaware, they only update those at the beginning of the next month. He only updated them now because I requested he do so. Moreover, he contacted me to let me know he got them updated. What a fantastic response I've gotten from him! I cannot speak highly enough of the work the Rutgers team - and Tom in particular - has done. I can also tell you that they performed their update pretty much immediately (which may be obvious)... as soon as their data feed was restored. EDIT: For the record, since I haven't seen anyone point it out... the all-important (in my view) Week 42 number from Rutgers was 16.24 million square kilometers of coverage for Eurasia. That's a massive third place ranking... behind 1976 and only a small ways behind 1978. ...and since the historical weeks do not match us, my analysis up-thread shows that adjusting the weeks to even everything out does improve the signal. So... interpolating for "the week starting 10/18" comes in at 17.62 million square kilometers of coverage. That moves us PAST 1978! ...into a colossal position of #2 on the list (since 1966), behind only 1976. If we don't have a significant -AO this winter it will be perhaps the most epic of all snow cover fails. I'm not counting on that... I expect an impressive -AO for DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I love this time of year.....days are getting shorter and the temps are getting colder.... Wish everyone in the south a white. Christmas!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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