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Hurricane Bertha


Brick Tamland

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Dry air already becoming a problem along with some shear. It does have a vigorous circulation which is a + from yesterday, but convection is much weaker. Models all trended weaker from yesterday which probably means a further west.

Overall, invest 93L is struggling and little to no intensification should take place unless it can find a better environment. Probably won't be named today unless it can fire some deep convection near the center and maintain it.

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Time to update...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST. BERTHA ISMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THISGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BARBADOSFRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAYEVENING.REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATETHAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS.TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KMFROM THE CENTER.
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The real thing to watch for in this stage is whether they plot Bertha at any point crossing 75W because at that point it has to have a east component to its track at some point before 35N to miss NC.....at this point the track stay safely east of 75W, so until they plot a point west of that I don't really consider us in play for this one.....and then even if they do plot a point west of 75 the overall pattern at this point still suggest a miss although the further west it gets the more flat the recurve IMO.

 

post-141-0-65315200-1406920054_thumb.gif

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Let's cover all bases just in case....

 

There are now three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha.The scenario for the official forecast is that Bertha survives itscurrent lack of structure, land interaction, and dry airentrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment inabout 36 hours.  At that point, it would likely intensify untilthe onset of extratropical transition in 96-120 hours.  Using thisscenario, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previousforecast and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in about 96hours.  The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropicalwave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration laterwhen the system reaches the more favorable environment.  A new thirdpossibility involves a low pressure area currently developing overthe northwestern Bahamas.  The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low toget strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while theother models are less bullish on the its development.  Later modelruns should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.
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Looks like Hurricane Bertha is as far West as it's going to get. Didn't even make it to 74°W.

1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014In spite of its unimpressive appearance on satellite imagery, withscant evidence of banding features and relatively disorganized deepconvection, aerial reconnaissance data indicate that Bertha hasintensified into a hurricane.  Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMRwinds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes support anintensity of 70 kt for this advisory.  Bertha does have well-definedanticyclonic upper-level outflow over the eastern and southernportions of the circulation.  Recent infrared imagery shows warmingcloud tops, so the intensity is probably leveling off.  Dynamicalguidance predicts a very large increase in shear beginning in 24-36hours, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin around that time.In about 72 hours, the global models show the cyclone interactingwith a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Newfoundland, so the NHCforecast shows Bertha becoming extratropical by that time.Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that themotion is now 360/15 kt.  The track forecast remains relativelystraightforward.  Over the next couple of days, Bertha should turntoward the northeast and accelerate in the flow between amid-tropospheric anticyclone over the southwestern Atlantic and abroad trough moving off the United States east coast.  Later in theforecast period, the cyclone should continue moving quickly to thenortheast or east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies.The official forecast track is not much different from the previousone, and close to the dynamical model consensus.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  04/1500Z 27.6N  73.6W   70 KT  80 MPH 12H  05/0000Z 30.0N  73.4W   70 KT  80 MPH 24H  05/1200Z 33.4N  72.1W   70 KT  80 MPH 36H  06/0000Z 36.3N  69.3W   65 KT  75 MPH 48H  06/1200Z 39.0N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH 72H  07/1200Z 45.0N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H  08/1200Z 49.0N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H  09/1200Z 49.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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