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Vendor forecast thread


famartin
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The amount of followers shouldn't be a barometer of their skill level at forecasting. However, I did appreciate their admission of the blown forecast and the quick follow up detailing where they / it (forecast) went wrong.

Well, where they *thought* they went wrong, anyway...  (I didn't read it myself as I avoid them like the plague, but I'm told by other meteorologists who did read it, that the explanation was not really correct... but again, that's heresay)

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Some words of comfort for those feeling a bit forlorn because of the weather from none other than Ray's favorite MET.....JB (I know Ray...tongue firmly in cheek(TIC) as he is NOT your favorite) - hold on to your hats....but he see's big things coming...very unlike JB to hype something (I know again TIC)

 

"Okay the western edge of this did not pan out. The accumulation in the 5 boroughs looking at the reports should have been 6-12 inches. The storm I used as closest, Feb 1978, haD 15-20 inches in NYC and south down the Jersey shore, a foot back to PHL.

But its time for those so ruthlessly stomped on by this injustice to stop your sobbing Its tough to listen to the woe is me stuff out of NY area snow geese. Any of you get one of those 15 day app from the media hype companies. Just how much snow was on it for NYC and what did temperatures look like 10 days ago for the 5 days ending now. I am sure they did not have the 10-15 inches of snow that has fallen around NYC. I got called by a major snow client of mine Saturday and he said he was watching forecasts and there was very little indication of this, and that was after the Friday night debacle the other way around New York So lets get our heads up and get ready, because this display will rival the 78 winter

So in the last 10 days, we had an ice event that stopped everyone , a clipper an storm underforecasted and a storm that in most winters ( around NYC) is a pretty stout event, all this in the so called Jan Thaw period, and we are feeling down?""

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Well, where they *thought* they went wrong, anyway... (I didn't read it myself as I avoid them like the plague, but I'm told by other meteorologists who did read it, that the explanation was not really correct... but again, that's heresay)

Nice choice of words....Lol. I almost added to my post how they had to come clean in fear of you know who.

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Just not a fan of bashing is all. Disagree with them, challenge their forecasting, but to bash - that's just low.

to be fair, they over forecast every storm and are a hype machine. They use weak meteorology to explain why a storm is going to be the worst case scenario then use the same weak meteorology to explain when they are wrong. They seriously over forecast every storm by at least a few inches, so the weenies follow him because he's the one to get their hopes up. this again is just observed over the past 5 years or so from steve d. his opinion is just as worthy as RW, difference is RW doesn't have a degree.

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to be fair, they over forecast every storm and are a hype machine. They use weak meteorology to explain why a storm is going to be the worst case scenario then use the same weak meteorology to explain when they are wrong. They seriously over forecast every storm by at least a few inches, so the weenies follow him because he's the one to get their hopes up. this again is just observed over the past 5 years or so from steve d. his opinion is just as worthy as RW, difference is RW doesn't have a degree.

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I actually forecast the last debacle 'ok'.....ended with 5.3" at home and very little West of I476 or South of Trenton. Hugged the GFS essentially because it was fairly consistent.

I hope you didn't take that as a shot at you, just was saying that your forecasts are just as equally as thought out as an amateur, not that your opinion doesn't matter.(because you did do well with the last few storms)

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to be fair, they over forecast every storm and are a hype machine. They use weak meteorology to explain why a storm is going to be the worst case scenario then use the same weak meteorology to explain when they are wrong. They seriously over forecast every storm by at least a few inches, so the weenies follow him because he's the one to get their hopes up. this again is just observed over the past 5 years or so from steve d. his opinion is just as worthy as RW, difference is RW doesn't have a degree.

 

 

everyone made some sort of statement about the rough forecasting of this storm.....abc6, nbc10, cbs3, NWS, DT, etc

if you don't like them then that is fine......i don't know how good or bad they are because i am not tracking their results which you should do if you are going to call them out like that......i do know that they are still a bunch of mets (not just steve d) that are putting in time and effort to try and put a forecast out for us and just like many other sources i appreciate them for that

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everyone made some sort of statement about the rough forecasting of this storm.....abc6, nbc10, cbs3, NWS, DT, etc

if you don't like them then that is fine......i don't know how good or bad they are because i am not tracking their results which you should do if you are going to call them out like that......i do know that they are still a bunch of mets (not just steve d) that are putting in time and effort to try and put a forecast

:lmao: yeah in my spare time I like to keep statistics on how often some random weather website is wrong. Just calling it as I see it, if you don't agree that's fine.  And what does time and effort have to do with anything. Many weenies put time and effort into forecasts, should they all be respected if they overhype every storm? Or because they have the degree, that makes it ok?

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everyone made some sort of statement about the rough forecasting of this storm.....abc6, nbc10, cbs3, NWS, DT, etc

if you don't like them then that is fine......i don't know how good or bad they are because i am not tracking their results which you should do if you are going to call them out like that......i do know that they are still a bunch of mets (not just steve d) that are putting in time and effort to try and put a forecast out for us and just like many other sources i appreciate them for that

Steve D isn't a Met?

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Rayno 6-12 for the NW burbs

 

DiMartino 8-12 for the NW burbs

 

These two are my favorites along with Glenn

 

Guess they aren't buying the North trend

i guess it also depends on what is being considered NW suburbs, go out a little bit and the north trend shouldnt impact numbers that much

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