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Met1985

Spring and Summer thread for the Mountains

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I've noticed a trend in the model data (GFS mostly) throughout the day on Friday of ramping up rainfall totals for Monday...tonight's 0z run is starting to show widespread totals of 2-3 inches in WNC with the southern slopes of the mountains being favored...

Unless we get a total screw job from the Gulf Coast storm train overnight Sunday/Monday this could be a our first significant rainfall producer of the spring. Dynamics look really good as you can see 850 winds taking on a pretty good orientation to the Apps...that's a 50 kt wind in East Central GA that translate northward towards the southern slopes.

 

GFS_3_2014040500_F84_PCPIN_72_HR.png

 

 

 

 

 

GFS_3_2014040500_F66_WSPD_850_MB.png

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I had enough of those gloomy days, lol. I want to spend my last month of the school year in Asheville with warm and dry weather :) 

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I've noticed a trend in the model data (GFS mostly) throughout the day on Friday of ramping up rainfall totals for Monday...tonight's 0z run is starting to show widespread totals of 2-3 inches in WNC with the southern slopes of the mountains being favored...

Unless we get a total screw job from the Gulf Coast storm train overnight Sunday/Monday this could be a our first significant rainfall producer of the spring. Dynamics look really good as you can see 850 winds taking on a pretty good orientation to the Apps...that's a 50 kt wind in East Central GA that translate northward towards the southern slopes.

 

GFS_3_2014040500_F84_PCPIN_72_HR.png

 

 

 

 

 

GFS_3_2014040500_F66_WSPD_850_MB.png

Was noticing the same thing Marion. Monday looks like a doozy for heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms. We need the rainfall but not all at once. Shall be interesting especially with the gulf wide open.

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GFS still harping on a heavy rain event coming for Sunday night through Monday. Really most of next week look unsettled. I also see some snow in the higher elevations is still in play. Not a whole lot but might be some snow flying. The big story will be the cool down and the heavy rainfall. Looks like a general 2-3 inches for the mountains especially the SW mountains.

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GFS still harping on a heavy rain event coming for Sunday night through Monday. Really most of next week look unsettled. I also see some snow in the higher elevations is still in play. Not a whole lot but might be some snow flying. The big story will be the cool down and the heavy rainfall. Looks like a general 2-3 inches for the mountains especially the SW mountains.

 

 

Just got home and saw the 12z model suite...2-3 inches could be a base number in the SoApps, some areas may push higher totals through Tuesday afternoon.

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Just got home and saw the 12z model suite...2-3 inches could be a base number in the SoApps, some areas may push higher totals through Tuesday afternoon.

Ya just looked at the 12z suite also. You know with systems like this rain totals are always underdone especially in the southern Apps.

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Depressing we'll be stuck in 50s while Raleigh get 60s/70s all week long :(

Like we're depressed all winter at 33 with rain, while you're getting snow and ice. We don't feel bad for you one bit. :P

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Like we're depressed all winter at 33 with rain, while you're getting snow and ice. We don't feel bad for you one bit. :P

not this year. We were stuck with 15 and wind blown leaves while eastern nc had one of their greatest winters.

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not this year. We were stuck with 15 and wind blown leaves while eastern nc had one of their greatest winters.

Haha! Now that's true. PGV ftw....again. :thumbsdown:

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Like we're depressed all winter at 33 with rain, while you're getting snow and ice. We don't feel bad for you one bit. :P

 

Actually, we got screwed so many times! We only had two decent storms this year :P 15" is a lot, but 1/2 of that came from one event. 

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Everything still on track at this point for a significant rainfall event for the Upper Southeast including the Southern Apps Region. I'm feeling more and more confident that we won't have much if any disruption from convection to our south.

 

The heaviest of rains should be in tomorrow morning through afternoon. Today's 12z GFS shows a really classic upslope setup for a lot of Western North Carolina as we will have a southeast flow from the SFC through 850mb...I think somebody in one of the favored areas will make a run at 4-5 inches by the time it ends on Tuesday.

 

 

SFC Winds...

GFS_3_2014040612_F27_WSPD_10_M_ABOVE_GRO

 

 

 

925mb Winds

GFS_3_2014040612_F27_WSPD_925_MB.png

 

 

 

850mb Winds

GFS_3_2014040612_F27_WSPD_850_MB.png

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Marion it sure has. Been raining hard most  of the morning but coming down in buckets right know and the way the radar looks this is going to last quite some time. Going to be interesting what is in the rain gauge this morning as we have had some very heavy rainfall.

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Marion it sure has. Been raining hard most  of the morning but coming down in buckets right know and the way the radar looks this is going to last quite some time. Going to be interesting what is in the rain gauge this morning as we have had some very heavy rainfall.

 

Man it is coming down with no end soon; the waterfalls will be something to behold by this afternoon.

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Man it is coming down with no end soon; the waterfalls will be something to behold by this afternoon.

Ya they will be. We have need a good rain lol  this for the start of spring. Nice to see but a lot of water out there.

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Radar estimated precip already has areas of 1.5" showing up in WNC.

 

2.5" + of rain in parts of Graham county will similar totals in other counties near the TN line:

 

http://water.weather.gov/afws/stprecipsummary.php?state=NC

 

My mtn top has only recorded 1.95" so far but it is likely unreporting it due to very high winds at the gauge location causing poor rain catch.

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Have not seen the river and streams this high in quite some time. So far total rainfall is at 1.60 inches of rainfall and still coming down.

 

Highest report I could find in Western NC was 2.95" 2 NW of Waynesville at 3800 feet elevation in the Plott Balsams.  The rain has moved out for the moment but the models insist on some redevelopment this afternoon. Radar map suggests that convection along the Gulf coast has robbed moisture/disrupted moisture transport into the mtns however.

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Highest report I could find in Western NC was 2.95" 2 NW of Waynesville at 3800 feet elevation in the Plott Balsams. The rain has moved out for the moment but the models insist on some redevelopment this afternoon. Radar map suggests that convection along the Gulf coast has robbed moisture/disrupted moisture transport into the mtns however.

reports of over 4" in Macon county.

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Tweet from Bastardi:

NEW ECMWF is wild day 7-10. Brings arctic air mass into central, then eastern US and then drives major storm up e cst

S Plus appalachians

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Tweet from Bastardi:

NEW ECMWF is wild day 7-10. Brings arctic air mass into central, then eastern US and then drives major storm up e cst

S Plus Appalachians

 

Yeah HighCountry I was getting on here to post that the Euro clown map gave KAVL 1.0" of snow on the 16th.  Also has snow across much of NC.  Interesting.... will be anxious to see what the ensembles say.  Oh wait this is the summer thread lol.

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Source? The highest I could find there is 2.94" although in this kind of setup-the mtns there often do very well.

local radio station report. Might be the coweeta hydro lab

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