January 20-? Cold snap

[Hoosier]

00z GFS still has a late month warmup but it slowed it down a bit compared to the 12z run.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, we really do have a model duel on our hands, it being the operational GFS vs. the rest of the world. It's latest run is warm yet again for the week of the 27th in stark contrast to the Euro.

[Hoosier]

Well, we really do have a model duel on our hands, it being the operational GFS vs. the rest of the world. It's latest run is warm yet again for the week of the 27th in stark contrast to the Euro.

 

 

It's about a day slower with it though.  Time will tell if it's just a slight delay or the start of more movement toward other models.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's about a day slower with it though.  Time will tell if it's just a slight delay or the start of more movement toward other models.

Someone just posted in the Mid-Atlantic that it's looking like a nice spring day for the superbowl as per the 0z GFS!

[ayuud11]

How did you get the temperatures to display in Celsius? Is this from the Weatherbell site?

Yes it's from wxbell.

[Chicago WX]

Hopefully Toronto can have have a positive Jan temp departure with the impending super torch! 

[Hoosier]

Tim can schedule a tee time for the 29th based on the 00z GFS. 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Hopefully Toronto can have have a positive Jan temp departure with the impending super torch! 

Haha. What's your take? Do you think the operational GFS is out to lunch?

[Chicago WX]

Tim can schedule a tee time for the 29th based on the 00z GFS. 

 

Already making plans. Early tee time...drinks on the patio after the round...BBQ at night. And flipping on the AC before I hit the sack. Spring baby!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Already making plans. Early tee time...drinks on the patio after the round...BBQ at night. And flipping on the AC before I hit the sack. Spring baby!

Perhaps the only financial damage equal to that of a hurricane next week will be Weatherbell's clients fleeing?

[snowstormcanuck]

Haha. What's your take? Do you think the operational GFS is out to lunch?

 

I think Tim's thoughts are summed up in post 147

[Chicago WX]

Haha. What's your take? Do you think the operational GFS is out to lunch?

 

Nah, I always ride the op GFS past day 7. It's never ever wrong. As if I haven't posted ad nauseam about it...

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I think Tim's thoughts are summed up in post 147

You're right. I saw that earlier.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Toronto tv wx mets/specialists are textbook mediocrity and Tom Brown is at the bottom of the barrel. Farnell is the best of the bunch and I probably roll my eyes at least once during each of his forecasts.

Tom seems like a good guy what with doing charity drives and such. He's no Tom Skilling though.

[snowstormcanuck]

Tom seems like a good guy what with doing charity drives and such. He's no Tom Skilling though.

 

He's a good guy but he has no business doing the weather. The guy sounds like a carnival barker when he's giving his "forecast".

[Ottawa Blizzard]

He's a good guy but he has no business doing the weather. The guy sounds like a carnival barker when he's giving his "forecast".

We Canadians are, with a few exceptions, poorly served by our on air mets compared to the states. What do you think of Chris St. Clair of the Weather Network and the national CBC weather lady Clair?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Looking like the further northeast, better location for the best cold with this phase.

Yeah, it doesn't look like Chicago will be as hard hit this time and likely won't see three straight days below zero.

[Stebo]

As IWXwx said earlier today, the GFS has the right idea, but is about 5-8 days too quick. I would be looking at a warm up around the 1st of the month give or take a few days, as the MJO moves out of the circle of death and into phase 6 at a decent amplitude. This is going to be the first time all winter that we have had much of a MJO response. Just a point of reference this is the typical MJO responses you get with respect to temperatures for JFM

 

 

So what the GFS is showing does make sense with respect to the MJO, it is just progressing it too quickly.

 

Conversely, there is a benefit to the MJO moving into phase 6 at a decent amplitude, it will lead to a more active pattern, these are the precipitation anomalies for JFM for each phase.

 

 

This also matches up with the projected PNA pattern for late into the month toward February 1st.

 

 

This would suggest the SE ridge strengthening which would also match up well with the temperature/precip anomalies of phase 6 of the MJO.

 

One thing I would be concerned about especially south of the region, would be severe weather for the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

As IWXwx said earlier today, the GFS has the right idea, but is about 5-8 days too quick. I would be looking at a warm up around the 1st of the month as the MJO moves out of the circle of death and into phase 6 at a decent amplitude. This is going to be the first time all winter that we have had much of a MJO response. Just a point of reference this is the typical MJO responses you get with respect to temperatures for JFM

 

 

So what the GFS is showing does make sense with respect to the MJO, it is just progressing it too quickly.

Thanks for the input. I've heard before how the GFS is often too quick to pull the trigger with regard to pattern changes.

[Chicago WX]

There's a reason why the GFS is going torch, partly because of what it's doing with the MJO. It tried and failed this move 10 days ago. Forecast accuracy of the MJO by the GFS, and most models, isn't great. Plus there are false signals at times as well. It's not always cut and died...or 1+1=2. Buyer beware.

 

0z GEFS through 276 318 hours....no torch so far. 

[Stebo]

There's a reason why the GFS is going torch, partly because of what it's doing with the MJO. It tried and failed this move 10 days ago. Forecast accuracy of the MJO by the GFS, and most models, isn't great. Plus there are false signals at times as well. It's not always cut and died...or 1+1=2. Buyer beware.

 

0z GEFS through 276 318 hours....no torch so far. 

GEM and ECMWF also show it moving into phase 6 or phase 7 at a high amplitude, the GFS isn't alone on the idea.

[Stebo]

ECMWF ensemble MJO forecast

 

 

Canadian Ensemble forecast for the MJO

 

Just for a frame of reference here is the GFS operational and the ensembles MJO forecast

 

 

 

[Chicago WX]

GEM and ECMWF also show it moving into phase 6 or phase 7 at a high amplitude, the GFS isn't alone on the idea.

 

Ok, good. But again, it is not a model strong suit...forecasting the MJO. And the results aren't always exact per phase. HM and the others in the know have explained this before.  

 

Now, maybe we're a little closer than I think...with respect to the pattern. There most likely will be a relaxation around the end of the month/beginning of February...but I don't see it turning into a complete furnace like the op GFS. 0z GEFS and Euro ensembles probably have the better idea. Biggest change will be the PNA going negative...but that's also an increase for storminess signal.  

[Stebo]

Ok, good. But again, it is not a model strong suit...forecasting the MJO. You know that. 

 

Now, maybe we're a little closer than I think...with respect to the pattern. There most likely will be a relaxation around the end of the month/beginning of February...but I don't see it turning into a complete furnace like the op GFS. 0z GEFS and Euro ensembles probably have the better idea. Biggest change will be the PNA going negative...but that's also an increase for storminess signal.  

 

Yeah I don't see it going as warm as the op GFS either, at least not here. The mid Atlantic, the Southeast and maybe even New England. We are going to be in the battleground between the two air masses which at this time of year you want to be in this position with the prospects of big systems. I know the MJO isn't the only thing to look at but combine it with the PNA going negative and the AO/NAO going at least neutral to positive there are signals of warmer than what we have been experiencing lately showing up.

[Harry]

Just remember folks the AO/NAO has not been dominating the pattern this winter.

 

Thus see the EPO for what has been the main player.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

Daily EPO info..Note the days it went positive recently just before the AO tanked.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

As for the PNA see what Don S. said in the mid range thread earlier. My hunch is the final result may end up in the middle and thus near neutral and with the -EPO that would suggest the trough ends up in the Rockies/central part of the country into the GL placing most of us ( except the nw corner ) in a much more active pattern. Basically back to what we had in alot of Dec and to start this month.

[Stebo]

Just remember folks the AO/NAO has not been dominating the pattern this winter.

 

Thus see the EPO for what has been the main player.

 

Daily EPO info..Note the days it went positive recently just before the AO tanked.

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

 

As for the PNA see what Don S. said in the mid range thread earlier. My hunch is the final result may end up in the middle and thus near neutral and with the -EPO that would suggest the trough ends up in the Rockies/central part of the country into the GL placing most of us ( except the nw corner ) in a much more active pattern. Basically back to what we had in alot of Dec and to start this month.

Yeah, a neutral to weakly negative PNA is what would be ideal for the region, otherwise you have stuff cutting too far to the west.

[Harry]

Yeah a neutral to weakly positive PNA is what would be ideal for the region, otherwise you have stuff cutting too far to the west.

 

Yep unless the NAO goes negative and thus see Feb 79 and Feb 82 which had that ( -pna/-nao ) combo. The NAO has not played ball so far so i would prefer not having to rely on it. I *think* this is what Deedler and Don S. are banking on especially Don S who is expecting a snowier pattern that includes i-95 which they got in both Feb 79 and 82. Hard to bet against him once he gets rolling so i wont but i do have my doubts about it. We'll see.

[Stebo]

Yep unless the NAO goes negative and thus see Feb 79 and Feb 82 which had that ( -pna/-nao ) combo. The NAO has not played ball so far so i would prefer not having to rely on it. I *think* this is what Deedler and Don S. are banking on especially Don S who is expecting a snowier pattern that includes i-95 which they got in both Feb 79 and 82. Hard to bet against him once he gets rolling so i wont but i do have my doubts about it. We'll see.

Yeah, don't want the NAO going too negative else it will be an east coast special and I will pass on that.

[blizzardof96]

ECMWF ensemble MJO forecast

 

 

 

Canadian Ensemble forecast for the MJO

 

 

Just for a frame of reference here is the GFS operational and the ensembles MJO forecast

 

 

Major issue I have with this point is that with the exception of the NCEP_BC and GFS, all other RMM forecasts move the MJO wave into the COD once we get into the beginning of Feb/end of Jan period. We see movement into phase 6 in the next 5 days, which is more then likely going to be very cold and not the phase 6 signal you would expect. There is also the issue of the RMM plots generating a false signal and over amplifying the wave due to KW coupling, when in reality its not a ~2 sigma wave on the way. Because of the weak nature to the wave, I suspect that it won't have a large impact on the pattern, as models have it very cold in the east when it should warm(phase 6) and vice versa as we head to the beginning of Feb. More realistically, we see a weak wave form over the eastern IO/MC which eventually moves through phases 6-1, along with propagation through phase 7/8 around the start of Feb. Roundy plots are showing this type of evolution. I agree with you regarding the early Feb warm up but don't think the MJO will have much of a say in that process.

[beavis1729]

I may not have been as clear in earlier posts...but I want to provide evidence that this really was a model fail...not just a one-off GFS model shift at 240-300 hours out.

 

From Jan 14-17, pretty much every model run of the GFS and Euro showed a significant arctic outbreak in the Midwest (-30C 850s or lower, including close to -40 in far south central Canada) during the Jan 24-26 period.  In other words, in the 168-240 hour range.  Many mets and respected posters (including in this sub-forum ) were gaining confidence in this event.

 

Then over the past couple of days, this arctic outbreak vanished on the models.  There is no disputing that.  Sure, it will generally be below normal...but nothing out of the ordinary.  In fact, the cold air from Jan 20-23 will end up being the story...although of course it won't be nearly as cold as what earlier runs showed during Jan 24-26.

 

Even if arctic air "comes back" for Jan 24-26, it will be geared toward New England, not the Midwest.

 

So, the models failed on this.  It wasn't just one op GFS model shift at 240-300 hours out.  We were never talking that far out to begin with.

 

The discussions about this had nothing to do with the torch that some op GFS runs were showing in very late Jan.  I agree those progs shouldn't have been taken seriously...and that, probably in early Feb, we will moderate  But that was never the issue to begin with.  The main issue is that the Jan 24-26 arctic outbreak vanished.  Again, that was only 7-10 days out at one point on multiple models, not 10+ days out.

 

With that said...I'm curious what led to the changes.  Looking at the maps, it could be a simple thing:  the ridge that was once progged over AK is now predicted to shift about 500 miles east, and to not be quite as strong.  As some like to say, "the angle of the cold is wrong".  One little change like that has huge implications downstream.  Did any other things change?