famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 More ice than rain for TTN...the surface freezing line doesn't make it very far north. At 96 and 102 its just barely above freezing at the surface... 33 and 32.5 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro is a MECS for anyone north of 40N. Don't do it, don't fall for it and make my mistake Miller B at it's finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Verbatim this will feel like a disorganized disaster for the PHL area where the changeover takes forever. In this scenario are we talking snow->rain->snow, or just rain to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Don't do it, don't fall for it and make my mistake Miller B at it's finest lol....you mean like Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 lol....you mean like Saturday? that's right the M word should not be said untill we have continuity SW quadrants of miller B's are a scary place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In this scenario are we talking snow->rain->snow, or just rain to snow? There may be a little frozen at the start but it's going to feel like rain/ice -> snow. Verbatim. And I haven't bought off on anything yet, just describing the model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 There may be a little frozen at the start but it's going to feel like rain/ice -> snow. Verbatim. And I haven't bought off on anything yet, just describing the model output. Thanks Ray. Whichever way it evolves it looks like an interesting week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I presume you might mean "around Ambler"? Its a bit colder so you would do better, verbatim. Trenton looks like about 3 inches of snow after sleet and ice and rain. Out your way, maybe 4 or 5 inches. Snow maps WxBell show 6+" for TTN and storm vista is even crazier at 10+ for TTN and north. There's a pretty sharp cut off below that say I195 and south and east. Dry slotting is another issue. Either way, I'd take 3" with lows near 0 for Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Snow maps WxBell show 6+" for TTN and storm vista is even crazier at 10+ for TTN and north. There's a pretty sharp cut off below that say I195 and south and east. Dry slotting is another issue. Either way, I'd take 3" with lows near 0 for Sat. Really? The EC snow maps don't add up? I'm SHOCKED I tell you, just shocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 From NYC sub-forum, this is the lesser of the two. Likely both on crack but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Absolute Humidity, do you have the more amped map? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Absolute Humidity, do you have the more amped map? ThanksCan't post SV maps here, but you get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Sounds like we've got ensemble backing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The storm track on EURO kind of reminds me of Feb 5 2001...that storm was a tad farther SE...Im starting to think that if the EURO is right on how south the fort digs we may see a classic rain to snow type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What do we have to do to get a good ole fashioned MIller A storm around these parts where we are just worrying about exact track of a single surface LP, not an OH valley primary and a coastal transfer? These always spell doom for the PHL area as the snow associated with the primary fizzles out once the transfer occurs which is usually too late for "most of us", or if the primary advances further before the transfer then the boundary torches with a southwest flow out ahead of it. These setups will more often than not disappoint many around here and bury New England. I will be watching that ridge out west because that will signal how much that shortwave can dig. Hopefully it will dig into WV/TN that is where we need it go in order to get the coastal to pop at a lower latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What do we have to do to get a good ole fashioned MIller A storm around these parts where we are just worrying about exact track of a single surface LP, not an OH valley primary and a coastal transfer? These always spell doom for the PHL area as the snow associated with the primary fizzles out once the transfer occurs which is usually too late for "most of us", or if the primary advances further before the transfer then the boundary torches with a southwest flow out ahead of it. These setups will more often than not disappoint many around here and bury New England. I will be watching that ridge out west because that will signal how much that shortwave can dig. Hopefully it will dig into WV/TN that is where we need it go in order to get the coastal to pop at a lower latitude. -NAO is a big missing piece for us. Without it, storms can cut (miller . obviously more to it than that, but until that happens, we "ride the line" with B's. While this pattern isnt my favorite down here in SE Pa, it can still deliver the goods. Hopefully latter Jan will reshuffle the deck for a more classic look. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z NAM is a mess, a lot of pieces to this puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 But it is picking up on the idea of digging more like the Euro. I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Less than .10 " on the 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Why are we analyzing the 84 hour NAM? We all know its well out if its best range still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Usually the most prolific with precip totals . But your right it is out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Usually the most prolific with precip totals . But your right it is out of its range. Now the 12z gfs on the other hand takes a step toward the Euro with more amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z GFS looking much better so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Crushing blow on the 12z GFS for some inland and coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12Z GFS is now showing a two-barreled low closer to the coast - not buying that scenario yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Temps in the 10's when the snow falls could add to ratios, how much? will need to look at Bufkit data in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS has surface temps down towards -10F behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Beautiful run. Would like to see the wide QPF shield continue as well as these upper-air trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At this point I'm honestly a little more excited about the potential widespread sub-zero readings, the first in 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z ECM is your big dog- a mastiff actually SEPA crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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