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Pittsburgh/Western Pa Weather

meatwad

By meatwad,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

I know it may not seem like a big deal to some but has anyone else noted this little disturbance that has been showing up on the models for Tuesday? Right now it looks like nothing but maybe 1/2 inch of snow showers possible but I would be happy to get even a coating Christmas Eve for a White Christmas. 

I don't like to toot my own horn but in this case I will.

I was looking at the HRR radar last night and it showed this snowburst coming through this morning.

Merry Christmas everyone! :santa:

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted

I don't like to toot my own horn but in this case I will.

I was looking at the HRR radar last night and it showed this snowburst coming through this morning.

Merry Christmas everyone! :santa:

Good call, you have been alluding to this possibility for a few days now! I didn't think we would see moderate snow thats for sure. Should be a white ground for Christmas!

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted

Warm ground is consistently overrated on here going back to when we were all posting at Wright-Weather. Looking at Pittsburgh webcams I see today can be added to the many examples where so-called warm ground isn't much of a factor. The ground obviously chilled enough overnight. Just have seen so many examples of snow on ground after warm spells including some in Oct.

Yeah heavy rates can overcome warm ground pretty easily, but I thought it would just be light snow showers at best. Still I agree, the warm ground thing is almost as bad as the sun angle arguement.

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

Yeah heavy rates can overcome warm ground pretty easily, but I thought it would just be light snow showers at best. Still I agree, the warm ground thing is almost as bad as the sun angle arguement.

 

Warm ground is consistently overrated on here going back to when we were all posting at Wright-Weather. Looking at Pittsburgh webcams I see today can be added to the many examples where so-called warm ground isn't much of a factor. The ground obviously chilled enough overnight. Just have seen so many examples of snow on ground after warm spells including some in Oct.

This was NWS Pittsburgh discussion yesterday afternoon. Even they mention the warm ground. They should know better.

Right now I am sitting at 23 degrees and about 1/2 inch and even pavement is covered.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

318 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MANY LOCATIONS

TUESDAY...WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO ENTER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SOME LIGHT RADAR ECHOES HAVE REMAINED ACROSS THE AREA THIS

AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAVING MOVED OFF TO

THE EAST. WITH SOME OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AT

AUTOMATED STATIONS...WILL ADD FLURRIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE

DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT THAT ALL LOCATIONS WILL DRY OUT THIS EVENING

INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE FIRST 24

HOURS OF THE FORECAST REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO WISCONSIN...AND

WILL MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPARK A

ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD

IN COVERAGE...EVEN IF A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ONLY SMALL

AMOUNTS OF ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW

FREEZING TONIGHT...THINK THAT THE RECORD BREAKING WARMTH OVER THE

WEEKEND WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE GROUND TO BE RELATIVELY WARM AND

MELT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS. NEVERTHELESS...THINK THAT

LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH COULD REACH AN INCH OF

SNOW...WITH TWO INCHES POSSIBLE WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HIGH

TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY

TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

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Mailman

Mailman

Posted
Posted

Not sure how much is hitting the ground, but there appears to be some snow heading into the West Virginia panhandle.  Maybe someone will see a few Christmas flakes after all.

 

------

 

And here's an update from PBZ...

 

A weak disturbance moving across the region beginning overnight through tomorrow afternoon will result in another day of snow accumulation. Eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia can see up to an inch. Southwest PA can expect between 1-2 inches. Along the 1-80 corridor and north, locations can see around 2 inches or slightly more. The ridges can also expect around 2 inches. If you're traveling, the snow bands can quickly reduce visibility. Safe travels everyone!
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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

Snow coming down good. Have a good 1/2 inch. Roads seem to be covered everywhere.

 

http://trafficland.com/city/PIT/index.html

 

Another nice surprise.

Several days back everyone was complaining of no white Christmas.

I ended up with close to an inch Christmas Eve day and will end up with an inch Christmas night. Can't beat that.

 

update,

Looking at models and radar I will bet most of the area wakes up to 2 inches of snow in the morning.

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north pgh

north pgh

Posted
Posted

Just got in to wellsville New York in southwest New York. I had very heavy snow from north Erie to Jamestown. One lane of driving at 35 mph. You could barely see the car in front of you. I saw 5 cars off the road in ditches. Scary stuff. Love lake-effect as long as you don't have to drive in it.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted

Ugh.. I've been lightly following this storm for Sunday the last couple of days and I kept thinking with a track like that we should see a colder trend take hold, but looks like another good track wasted. I expected that with the storm we had in late November, but we are getting into the heart of winter now.

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CoraopolisWx

CoraopolisWx

Posted
Posted

Ugh.. I've been lightly following this storm for Sunday the last couple of days and I kept thinking with a track like that we should see a colder trend take hold, but looks like another good track wasted. I expected that with the storm we had in late November, but we are getting into the heart of winter now.

Wise choice. lol

 

At least the 18z nam and gfs op, want to try and bring the 850 line through before the moisture exits.

Hopefully the surface can follow suite.

it's a start.

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Thunderhead

Thunderhead

Posted
Posted

Clipper New Years Day it looks like then a bigger possible storm during the 3-4 period. Looks to be active once again.

Merry Christmas all!

 

12z Euro ensembles still show a fair amount of variation in the model solutions for that event (go to www.ecmwf.int, click Forecasts at the top, then click Ensemble Prediction System), so it's possible there are still some changes in the model solution yet to come.

 

One thing that I like about this event is that a high is progged to our northeast.  That's usually an ingredient for a decent winter storm.  Still, as it is modeled now, snow accumulations on Thursday would be limited due to a poor 850 hPa low track (over/north of PIT).  Early call would be for a light-moderate steady snow on Thursday.

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Rdd9108

Rdd9108

Posted
Posted

I think Im done tracking storms this year. I used to enjoy it but its just becoming a hassle. I much rather hear on the news we are getting a foot of snow then constantly checking models. It seems like New England is the place to be this year. This next storm looks to dry slot us and we miss out on the action. Hopefully it trends and I get a surprise but its not looking good.

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Thunderhead

Thunderhead

Posted
Posted

I think Im done tracking storms this year. I used to enjoy it but its just becoming a hassle. I much rather hear on the news we are getting a foot of snow then constantly checking models. It seems like New England is the place to be this year. This next storm looks to dry slot us and we miss out on the action. Hopefully it trends and I get a surprise but its not looking good.

That's just climatology for PIT.  The thing about PIT is that big snow totals usually are not that far away:  just head to the Laurels or lake-effect belts.

 

WRT Thursday, 12z Euro ensembles are a bit south of the deterministic run.  Still looks like a light-moderate event.

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RitualOfTheTrout

RitualOfTheTrout

Posted
Posted

I think Im done tracking storms this year. I used to enjoy it but its just becoming a hassle. I much rather hear on the news we are getting a foot of snow then constantly checking models. It seems like New England is the place to be this year. This next storm looks to dry slot us and we miss out on the action. Hopefully it trends and I get a surprise but its not looking good.

If you compare our area to New England for snow, you will almost always be disappointed. If the pattern isn't favorable just take a break for a few days, or only check the 12z runs until a solid threat pops back up.

 

Just eyeballing the 18z GFS it has a nice looking event next Monday if the next storm isn't doing it for ya. ;)

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blackngoldrules

blackngoldrules

Posted
Posted

I think Im done tracking storms this year. I used to enjoy it but its just becoming a hassle. I much rather hear on the news we are getting a foot of snow then constantly checking models. It seems like New England is the place to be this year. This next storm looks to dry slot us and we miss out on the action. Hopefully it trends and I get a surprise but its not looking good.

 

This is a tough area to live in if you're into storms. We always seem to be in the wrong area for a good storm track. We just get nickeled and dimed most of the winter which inflates the snow totals. It sure doesn't feel like we have over 20 inches so far because a lot of that has been from a bunch of light amounts. I know in Bethel Park, we are nowhere near that amount since mixing and changeovers have killed us down here with storms so far this year. We get screwed here a lot actually from that standpoint. Like I've said before, and I hate to beat a dead horse, you just have to take it with a grain of salt. We're going to be disappointed around here a lot more than we're not when it comes to storms. Everything really has to fall in to place for us to get a big one. I just keep an eye on the models and try and not get my hopes up too high. 

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SteelCity08

SteelCity08

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure why some of you are so down on this winter so far. I understand we've missed on storms but we've had snow on the ground consistently since late Nov, and are ahead of our seasonal total to this point. Living in Pittsburgh you're lucky to be in the bullseye. Most of our snow comes from being the fringe of storms and lake effect. I think it's a safe bet we see a storm of at least 5 inches before it's over, if not, I'm content with how things have been going so far. 

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