Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm honestly surprised at how good the SREF is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I know there is a limit to how far north this can come and I doubt we can salvage anything from this but I have to tell you, it's amazing how much this thing has trended north. 12z NAM was a significant jog over 6z even. Also, it's my understanding that fresh data has been ingested for these 12z runs so there's less of a chance the NAM is on bath salts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 All right, looked at the 18z GFS...feel free to discuss. It's not banter. The 18z has two disturbances, not one, riding up a stalled cold front in the southeast. I noticed this at 12z and this is true w/ great snowstorms of the past....an initial wave rides up the front, but the second disturbance is the one that pops the low pressure off the coast. That is a partial phase IMO. I don't know that this gets to interior areas, but it goes to show you that this system is not being modeled well, even now. But the solution w/ the two impulses could not be seen until the data for all energy involved was sampled. ALL WINTER, systems have been modeled too far south and east and too dry. Now, can it get to the eastern valley? I have seen no model that suggests this. However, this is why I was complaining yesterday about the lack of discussion. This system will be fun to watch on the models for the next 48 hours. We can learn a lot. Besides, I really hope folks like Burger, WeatherNC, Buckeye, Storms Fury, Cold Rain, etc get a great snow even if we can't. At some point it will be our turn and those folks will be happy for us...even if like us they are disappointed they didn't get in the game. In closing, that is the solution I was waiting to see modeled. Does it happen? Who knows. But....where that cold front sets up shop is where that low is tracking. And I will leave you with these words, remember when in early winter cold fronts didn't penetrate to the latitude they were modeled? If that second impulse is a "phase"...all bets are off even this late in the game. That low gets into the 990s, could be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If it phases, I honestly think a good part of the Tennessee Valley will be in the game at least. I've noticed for years that the GFS was often underdone on the size of the precip fields, even on Gulf Lows. But this is a potent Arctic airmass heading down the pike. That means dry dry air. Could be a virga event for the Southern and Eastern Parts of the Valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z ensemble qpf..... I personally am not buying it at this point, but have been bullish on an eastern Ga, SC, and NC event for several days. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z ensemble qpf..... I personally am not buying it at this point, but have been bullish on an eastern Ga, SC, and NC event for several days. Yeah, it is the 18z. But the GFS tends to handle phases better and first. So, I at least listen to it but with a grain of salt at this point. Hey, where is the freezing line on that map? Some of those amounts could be 2'. Have to think there is some sleet in the pink areas. Usually is nearest the biggest accumulation areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 David Boyd on Channel 5 must have seen the 18z...he mentioned at 6:00 that some of the latest model guidance have hinted at some possible precip Tuesday night, and that this was a recent change. It keeps moving just a bit toward the valley....you never know. Yesterday morning sure produced well for a dry clipper.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Per DT on facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Also per DT This answers the question by Carvers earlier. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The low might not be north, but the storm was much stronger hence the precip field. DT is on the money there IMO. That said, things happened much differently out West. This is truly threading the needle. 100 miles different coming out of the Baja and everyone gets nothing...or it is a blizzard. Also, if that low deepens, which pops off shore, could make things interesting here. I don't have my hopes set high, but it has been interesting to track. The 18z shows the potential - which is not maxed out yet BTW. Let's see if later runs follow suit or if it was a hiccup. Generally the GFS leads the way w/ phases. Might take the Euro a couple of runs to catch up...if the GFS was correct. Just one run on one model at this point. The phase is tricky if it is right. However, if the PNA is going to go negative and the pattern changes, a big storm like this would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm actually interested in tonight's runs. I think we will be able to tell early in the run if this trend will continue. It seems like every storm that has a southern stream interaction over the past several years has had some sort of northwest adjustment in the precip field as you get closer to the event. That being said I definitely think there is room for improvement but in my opinion the ceiling would probably be 1-3 inches max for points east of the Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest SREF mean continues to give east TN a sliver of hope. .10 to .25 QPF baby heh. Considering so far I've had: 1 inch dusting half inch dusting tiny specks that can barely be called a dusting I'm rather pumped up at the possibilities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyTop Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hey guys... Long time lurker and first time poster. The 21Z SREF plumes show a mean of 4 inches for TRI. Can this thing trend any further NW or will the northern stream be too stout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Latest sref plumes for KTRI (mean around 4 inches) And for KTYS (mean of just under 3) It doesn't hurt to have a couple of members giving over 8 inches. Probably skews the mean just a bit, but still neat to look at Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hey Nut, what app is that? Oh, and I don't think your battery is going to last through 0z GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF looks good but the NAM is not on board. It didn't come close to phasing the two streams as it left the southern vort behind in Mexico. But this is just another solution to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hey Nut, what app is that? Oh, and I don't think your battery is going to last through 0z GFS lol. I don't know....I hijacked it off the southeast forum and then changed the airport site. :-) And it only has to last till about 1050.....after that I hit the hay, haha. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't know....I hijacked it off the southeast forum and then changed the airport site. :-) And it only has to last till about 1050.....after that I hit the hay, haha. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Your not going to stay up for the longrange???? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't know....I hijacked it off the southeast forum and then changed the airport site. :-) And it only has to last till about 1050.....after that I hit the hay, haha. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Your not going to stay up for the longrange???? lol I figure the long range will be less long range in the morning when i wake up, lol. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 00z through 21.....Vort is slightly stronger, 30 miles wsw of 18z near the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Through 48 the Vort is getting left over Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And no further West/North trend. This one may have went about as far as it can at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Smokies squeeze out .01 to .10 but that's about it. Big snows for the Southern half of Alabama, Southern third of Miss, most of South Carolina and Charlotte and points east get bombed. But not the monster 12+ totals the 18z showed. Less interaction with the Southern Stream = less qpf inland for everyone. If only that Northern stream energy didn't outrace the southern stream. But like all year, the Northern stream is kicking us in the teeth, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS ens looked similar to 18z. .01-.10 for most of East Tennessee. This is such an extreme outlier though, I'll be surprised if precip is north of the Southern Valley and West of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow, JKL issued a WWA for "near blizzard conditions" this morning between 4-11am. They only expect up to 1/2 inch of snow but apparently expect conditions to be very severe for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert has a new VERY detailed post on his paid site. In a nutshell he believes the models are missing the "lift" that will be present in the TN Valley, and a good overrunning precip event will rapidly begin by early tomorrow morning. He says snow will be breaking out pretty rapidly over much of the TN Valley tomorrow. If you take a look at the water vapor, I am not inclined to think anything of significance will happen. Why do I think this? You can see the dual swirls in the southwest and off the baha, but more importantly you can see the northern jet (which was initially trying to back southwest and capture the low(s) and phase), getting pushed east slightly OUT AHEAD OF the swirls in the southwest (probably in response to the system approaching the west coast. At this point, I think it would take pure luck (or divine intervention) to get those pieces to link up and phase, which is what we need in the southern apps. I just don't think what he sees will amount to much of anything with such a cold and dry airmass projected to be in place. I really want to believe what Robert is pushing this morning on his site, and I hate to disagree with him (b/c he's really good at his craft), but this isn't the first time I see things differently, and won't be the last. I do think as I have thought for several days, this has a far eastern NC/SC snow dump written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep, it seems models have trended away from the full phase scenario although a few ensemble members here and there keep fantasy hope alive. Maybe Robert is on to something but I believe it would take a miracle at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 A Robert tweet: Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South. And his Facebook text: The models are not forecasting this well, so far, and don't have a good handle on the details. The break away secondary upper low spinning now in the Southwest will continue to slide east, and break out precip over the Southeast, from eastern Texas through the Tenn. Valley by early Tuesday, as snow. Then that shield may consolidate and focus snow and sleet in the Carolinas, part of Virginia, much of Georgia and Alabama...with the ending of the storm hitting the eastern Carolinas down through GA the hardest I think. But the models are going to blow the western edge/excellent overrunning setup over the Arctic boundary that usually starts before they think it will. I don't like any particular model run on the QPF. More discussion at www.wxsouth.com and custom maps, graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z NAM throws east TN a bone: 24 hour snowfall at hour 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 9z SREF plumes: TYS mean 1.5 inches TRI mean 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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