nzucker Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 March has started out on the colder side with a -1.2F departure before a decent negative today at KNYC. The 12z ECM shows a significant trough in the East at 144 with a low well off the coast, a minor threat, then cold air crashes in: As Don Sutherland pointed out, the chance of an arctic outbreak is increasing with the -AO...the 12z ECM at Day 9 has -16C 850s over NYC: The 18z GFS has a large coastal tracking over Cape Cod, giving some backend snows to the area, at Day 7-8: People who are talking about this as the last of winter's cold and snow are probably kidding themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 While I am not sure how the individual storm details are going to play out, my guess is that this period will be the coldest departures in our area for the entire month of March. This will probably represent the best chance this month for NYC to record temperature departures of -10 or lower. The Euro ensembles are forecasting that the next round of blocking will be found further north which will allow the coldest temperature departures to be directed over the Northeast. The departures this week were lowest in the Southeast with the further south block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Strongly agree Bluewave...in a week, NYC's average high is around 50F and models are showing 30s for highs with 850s in the -10C to -16C range. Near-freezing temperatures produce much greater departures in mid-March than they do now, when averages are still in the 40s. With the block developing further north, we should get in on much more arctic air rather than the modified continental airmass that has produced the modestly cold start to March. Snow threats should extend out until March 20th or so before blocking breaks down and the month ends on a spring-like note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 There is going to be a nice temperature gradient along the northern third of the country next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 There is going to be a nice temperature gradient along the northern third of the country next week. I agree. The question is where that gradient will set up. The 6z GFS pretty much cancelled spring after this brief warm up we are expected to get after this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I agree. The question is where that gradient will set up. The 6z GFS pretty much cancelled spring after this brief warm up we are expected to get after this system. According to HM legitimate thraet end of next week and I understand Euro has storm end of next week. Any comments? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Euro looks cold/blocky with a couple of snow threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 GGEM for March 15..Euro is very close to this also today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 ggem looks like a 3-5in clipper assuming its timed right...it looks like areas just south and sw of the get in on the heavier stuff. Granted its a week out so I'm sure we'll see many changes. BTW euro pattern at 240 is awesome for mid march. If only we had this in january lol. Who knows march could end up our snowiest month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 ggem looks like a 3-5in clipper assuming its timed right...it looks like areas just south and sw of the get in on the heavier stuff. Granted its a week out so I'm sure we'll see many changes. BTW euro pattern at 240 is awesome for mid march. If only we had this in january lol. Who knows march could end up our snowiest month! Im encouraged that the euro is fairly similar to the ggem for the day 7 threat. And yeah, the pattern right after this screams potential with a nive PV in Maine funneling in cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 As said we were long overdue for a snowy March. Should continue into mid month with the Greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Snowy marches can be a lot of fun. Its almost unexpected at this point so its like all bonus snow lol. Truth of the matter is NYC averages around 3 (not positive just guessing) for the month of march but they've become stinker winter months over the last 10 years. Notably 2009 had a KU and there were others with storm threats but no real overall solid wintry marches in a while. Lets hope March 2013 makes up for the first half of winter. 2004 and 2005 weren't bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Gfs looks the same as the ggem and euro for the day 6-7 clipper. Cold and also at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Snowy marches can be a lot of fun. Its almost unexpected at this point so its like all bonus snow lol. Truth of the matter is NYC averages around 3 (not positive just guessing) for the month of march but they've become stinker winter months over the last 10 years. Notably 2009 had a KU and there were others with storm threats but no real overall solid wintry marches in a while. Lets hope March 2013 makes up for the first half of winter. 2004 and 2005 weren't bad though. March averages 3.6" in Central Park; the snowiest March was 30.5" in 1896. There have been some very snowy Marches in Westchester, using the Dobbs co-op much more recently: 1958...10.1" storm on 3/14 and then a 17.5" storm on 3/21....high of only 34F on 3/21...28.4" fell. 1960...27.4" storm on 3/3 and 2.5" on 3/17...9/12 nights with teens to start month...32.3" fell 1967...3.5" on 3/7, 12.1" on 3/17, 11.7" on 3/22, last accumulation 4/24 with 0.2"...high of 21F on 3/18, low of 2F 3/19...27.3" fell. 1994...6.3" on 3/3, 3.3" 3/18, low of 13F on 3/1 and 19F on 3/17...9.6" fell, much more to the northwest in Poconos/Catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The model guidance has been fairly persistent in developing another elongated upper level height field over Southeast Canada. With a changing pattern in the Pacific and out west, this creates a bit of a gradient across the Northern 1/3 of the CONUS. So long as this develops similarly to modeled, I wouldn't be surprised to see this northern stream feature (north of the International Border in the Northern Plains on this image) amplify southeast and develop into a weak Miller B. Our struggle will be with the sun angle and boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The model guidance has been fairly persistent in developing another elongated upper level height field over Southeast Canada. With a changing pattern in the Pacific and out west, this creates a bit of a gradient across the Northern 1/3 of the CONUS. So long as this develops similarly to modeled, I wouldn't be surprised to see this northern stream feature (north of the International Border in the Northern Plains on this image) amplify southeast and develop into a weak Miller B. Our struggle will be with the sun angle and boundary layer. As currently modeled, it comes a night. Which would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 As currently modeled, it comes a night. Which would be perfect.Yeah, if something like the ggem verified, most would probably see 3-5", accumulation wouldn't be a major issue. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I also think the winter weather potential could continue well past that first clipper threat with two potential threats emerging from Pacific energy around the 20th and 24th. We'll have to carefully watch the MJO progression and the modeling of the blocking setup over the high latitudes. But we could be entering a two week stretch with multiple snowstorm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I also think the winter weather potential could continue well past that first clipper threat with two potential threats emerging from Pacific energy around the 20th and 24th. We'll have to carefully watch the MJO progression and the modeling of the blocking setup over the high latitudes. But we could be entering a two week stretch with multiple snowstorm threats. The GFS has snow threats into the long range, including the Day 10 system that the 12z ECMWF had. Very cold pattern on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The -NAO just keeps reloading..It's amazing. This month has great potential to be our snowiest month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 The model guidance has been fairly persistent in developing another elongated upper level height field over Southeast Canada. With a changing pattern in the Pacific and out west, this creates a bit of a gradient across the Northern 1/3 of the CONUS. So long as this develops similarly to modeled, I wouldn't be surprised to see this northern stream feature (north of the International Border in the Northern Plains on this image) amplify southeast and develop into a weak Miller B. Our struggle will be with the sun angle and boundary layer. Besides the event coming at night, I don't see a lot of issues with the boundary layer if the GFS and ECM are correct. We have -10C 850s draped over our area with 510 thicknesses moving into Northern New England/Southeast Canada due to the very potent Greenland block. I think with the upper levels that cold, you're going to snow regardless of the date on the calendar. Also, I consider sun angle issues to be more of a problem in late March and April...March 14th is easily fair game for a snowfall in the NYC metro, especially the NW suburbs, and we saw snow sticking today during the day...we've had a ton of threats around St. Patty's Day...it just takes a better than usual H5 pattern since average highs are near 50F, but we definitely have a +PNA/-NAO developing after the brief warm-up. I'd like to see the PNA ridge stronger and further west to create the threat of a larger Nor'easter. I also think the winter weather potential could continue well past that first clipper threat with two potential threats emerging from Pacific energy around the 20th and 24th. We'll have to carefully watch the MJO progression and the modeling of the blocking setup over the high latitudes. But we could be entering a two week stretch with multiple snowstorm threats. Winter could continue for a while with the forecast pattern....the 12z ECM shows 850s dropping to around -13C here at Day 8 with a 552dm block over the Davis Strait/Baffin Island. This is a very potent pattern, and the two Pacific shortwaves forecast for the 20th and 24th could become major threats, although I become skeptical of snow threats after the equinox (although the latest accumulating snowfall here was on 4/24, so there is time left). Here is the great pattern on the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Not in love with the ridge being in the Central US, but still like the potential for something. Might be a few days until the models start honing in certain waves/dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 With a more classic west based block and a favorable MJO, perhaps we have yet to see our biggest snow event this month. I like that clipper/miller B possibility, which is more likely due to the blocking pattern and less progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Euro looks awesome. Nice little event at 168 followed by what looks like an epic pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Wow. This block is very exciting. Looks dec 2010ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 ^^ 00z GFS was somewhat south and weaker compared to 18z run... Wow. This block is very exciting. Looks dec 2010ish is that a threat around the 216-240 timeframe or am i just seeing things (sorry just looking at free maps)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 The Euro was very close to blowing up the clipper. The ridge axis initially being a bit to the east does not really bother me since the wavelengths are getting shorter. There's no real southern stream involved with the clipper so it won't have that much moisture, but there will be plenty of energy with it. Almost kinda like a warmer version of a January of '04 clipper, considering the PV position. The block that develops is just sick and in a perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 I like the March 20-25 period better for something significant. The west-based -NAO block and PV looks too strong before that. That period coincides better with the dynamical and statistical model forecasts for the MJO to loop back into between phases 7,8, and 1. As well the weakening west-based -NAO model forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 The Euro was very close to blowing up the clipper. The ridge axis initially being a bit to the east does not really bother me since the wavelengths are getting shorter. There's no real southern stream involved with the clipper so it won't have that much moisture, but there will be plenty of energy with it. Almost kinda like a warmer version of a January of '04 clipper, considering the PV position. The block that develops is just sick and in a perfect position. this the clipper from '04 you talkin bout ? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/15-Jan-04-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 The GFS looked like it was pretty close to pulling a Euro solution at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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