weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 We are dealing with winter today, however, the warm front lifting northward, which is responsible for the snow/sleet/freezing rain occurring across the region will eventually lift northward through the region and this will happen over the next few days. It remains a bit unclear as to how far the warm front will lift but one thing for sure is south of the warm front temperatures could briefly spike into the 50's to even close to 60F! A vigorous trough, now entering the western United States will continue working eastward through the remainder of the country and will be deepening very rapidly. This will allow for a very strong and anomalous ridge to develop out across the central and eastern United States which will allow for anomalous warmth to work all the way up the coast. A developing area of surface low pressure will be sliding a cold front eastward and will help to slowly push the warm front further northward towards New England. All computer model guidance is developing a very potent system with a tremendous amount of lift/forcing and very strong jet dynamics. In fact, we could be looking at two very active days of severe weather from the OH/MS Valley regions down into TX and the Gulf Coast states all the way to the mid-Atlantic states. During the day on Wednesday as the surface low continues it's northeasterly trajectory into Canada the warm front will slowly meander it's way through New England, possibly even stalling somewhere across the region and a cold front will be sliding eastward. As the front gets closer we will begin to see numerous showers, some of which will be quite heavy at times work into the region. Winds aloft will also begin to increase and with some mixing thanks to increasing WAA at the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere, some of these stronger winds aloft will be mixed down to the surface creating gusty winds. As we move towards early evening, some computer models are developing some weak instability, both surfaced-based and elevated. Computer soundings generate TT values up around 50, with the KI into the mid-30's, and both the SI and LI values getting close to 0. These favorable numbers all seem to move into the region just out ahead of the cold front where a band of extremely heavy rainfall will exist. Given the mentioned numbers, along with strong lift from the front and from the dynamics aloft (entrance region of a 100+ 500mb MLJ streak) we can't rule out the possibility of some embedded thunder within the line out ahead of the cold front. While winds aloft are extremely strong, even as low as 1500-2000' a pretty steep inversion may limit stronger winds from mixing down to the surface, however, the potential will exist for winds to gust as high as 35-45 mph with gusts close to 50 mph perhaps, especially towards the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 January thunder isn't that common but it certainly happens. I remember it jan 2005 (I think) a wicked cold front came through NJ/NYC in mid january. Temps went from the 60s to the 20s overnight. Lots of thunder with that event. (looking for the links now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 January thunder isn't that common but it certainly happens. I remember it jan 2005 (I think) a wicked cold front came through NJ/NYC in mid january. Temps went from the 60s to the 20s overnight. Lots of thunder with that event. (looking for the links now). I've recorded it once in 40 yr in Maine, in Ft.Kent of all places. In Jan 1978 a sharp CF dropped temps from low 40s to low 20s in 10 minutes; the flash-bangs (2, I think) came right at the start of the plunge. 2-3 days later it was -32 and the ice holes on the woods roads were very challenging for my 2WD pickup. Bouncing thru them all day managed to snap both front shocks next to the frame mounts. A coworker with tubeless tires had 7 flats that same day, as ice holes plus stiff sidewalls kept breaking the bead. Fortunately, every logging crew for which he was scaling had a compressor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 There is a small window when we get some fairly steep mid-level lapse rates to advect into southern portions of the region along with favorable elevated convective indices so thunder is certainly possible. The lift associated with this system will be incredible though...I can't really remember many times we've seen 125+ knot MLJ streak at 500mb here. One thing you always have to worry about though is the precip/line out ahead of the front racing east ahead of the best dynamics/forcing which actually looks like to happen, on the NAM at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Oh God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Tomorrows system will be pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 I guess this thread isn't good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 We are almost into the SEE TEXT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We are almost into the SEE TEXT area. NCFRB event with chance for mesos and very very low probability for any lightning. That's my call. Still pretty cool for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 we can't rule out the possibility of some embedded thunder within the line out ahead of the cold front. Congrats. 3 different people confirmed thunder here even though I managed to sleep through it. Sixth occurrence of January thunder in the last 17 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Congrats. 3 different people confirmed thunder here even though I managed to sleep through it. Sixth occurrence of January thunder in the last 17 years. There were several reports across SW CT as well as across other parts of the state and even in MA. That was a very impressive system with an even more impressive warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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